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jalopy

379 karma · joined November 7, 2010

Tech + Finance guy
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jalopy··on AWS Elasticsearch: a fundamentally-flawed offering
This is great intel - sorry it had to come with such painful experience.

Does anyone know if Open Distro for ElasticSearch (https://opendistro.github.io/for-elasticsearch/) has these problems? Or is it related to how AWS configures/maintains ES on their platform?

jalopy··on Org-mode on web, built with React, for mobile, synced with Dropbox, Google Drive
Currently keyboard shortcut ^n is opening a new window; how do I get it to navigate to next header?
jalopy··on Org-mode on web, built with React, for mobile, synced with Dropbox, Google Drive
Wow this is perfect. I'm using org mode more and more for everything I do and my only concern was mobile access. Thanks so much for working on this!
jalopy··on Why Evernote failed to realize its potential
I've captured (in Evernote, ironically) a few Evernote alternatives. Haven't had time to look them over yet, so not sure how much they address each of your needs:

- https://getpolarized.io/: open source html and pdf document manager. Supports Anki flashcards, local storage, markup of pdfs, tracking reading progress, more

- https://www.notion.so - paid/hosted service

- https://joplin.cozic.net/ - seems like a decent open source project

If you check these out and respond here (or in a new "Tell HN") with your thoughts, I'd love to read it.

jalopy··on ArchiveBox: Open-source self-hosted web archive
This looks awesome. Is there an easy way to transfer my current chrome session / cookies to the archivebox chromium instance? Would love to my subscription websites (eg nytimes) to register my logged-in state and allow the capturing instance full logged-in access.

EDIT: Nevermind, should have RTFM - see CHROME_USER_DATA_DIR in https://github.com/pirate/ArchiveBox/wiki/Configuration.

This looks really, really awesome.

jalopy··on Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Letter [pdf]
100% agree. I'm an avid Buffett, Munger and Berkshire follower. I've been to >= 8 of the last sequential annual meetings in Omaha (I highly, highly recommend it).

This letter left me feeling a bit empty, which I've never felt before after reading Berkshire letters. No in depth discussion of anything interesting. I actually see it as a bit of a worrying sign.

I'm speculating here, but maybe Buffett is conflicted about discussing the changes in corporate tax code in more depth given that it helps Berkshire and shareholders (himself the most, as the largest shareholder by far) at the expense of the country?

jalopy··on Older Adults' Forgetfulness Tied to Faulty Brain Rhythms in Sleep
So does anyone have recommendations on how to improve brainwave coordination and reverse the symptoms indicated in the article? Any tips, techniques, practices, other than avoiding alcohol/caffeine?
jalopy··on Ciao, Chrome: Firefox Quantum Is the Browser Built for 2017
I tried Quantum and it crushed the battery of my MacBook Air. Activity Monitor showed much more energy usage than chrome. Anyone experience the same?
jalopy··on LXD 2.14 has been released
Does anyone know how "lightweight" LXD is compared to Docker in terms of memory and disk footprint required for each type of container?
jalopy··on Speeding Up Rendering Rails Pages with render_async
How do you set up a "pusher channel" to the browser? Websocket?

Would love to see a write-up/notes/gist that demos this.

jalopy··on Vanguard Is Growing Faster Than Everybody Else Combined
By "active management" I mean actively taking a role in shaping company management, board makeup, corporate governance, say on pay, etc.

While Vanguard may vote all their shareholder proxies, they almost always vote along with the recommendations of management - practically never holding management accountable.

Proof: Take a look at their actual voting record on the S&P 500 fund https://about.vanguard.com/vanguard-proxy-voting/supporting-...

jalopy··on Vanguard Is Growing Faster Than Everybody Else Combined
But then that would be active management. This is something Vanguard expressly does not do.
jalopy··on Vanguard Is Growing Faster Than Everybody Else Combined
Ultimately this is a good thing for the stock pickers that remain - fewer dollars spent actively discovering the true value of companies means longer stretches and wider swings of mispricings.
jalopy··on Fasting diet 'regenerates diabetic pancreas'
I just searched "longo fasting" and this was the first result for me: "Fasting Mimicking Diet". https://prolonfmd.com/fasting-mimicking-diet/

It's a sales pitch so obviously needs caution here, but I'm curious - what do you know about a "fasting mimicking diet"? Is it at all effective?

jalopy··on Mac sales declined nearly 10% last year as Lenovo, Dell and others gained ground
Makes sense to me. Because Apple is discontinuing the Macbook Air - the best combination of power, form factor and price - I'm regularly looking at all available alternatives.

Can't really see how they're doing "what's best for the customer" anymore. More like what's best for their bottom line.

jalopy··on Show HN: Alacritty, a GPU-accelerated terminal emulator written in Rust
Nevermind -- Turns out I was just trying to type some characters in Emacs' welcome screen, which doesn't allow that in any terminal. I was so focused on kicking the tires of Alacritty I wasn't paying attention.

Looks interseting!

jalopy··on Show HN: Alacritty, a GPU-accelerated terminal emulator written in Rust
For some reason I can't run Emacs in terminal/unwindowed mode in Alacritty. Every "regular" character I type (ie to enter text into a buffer), Emacs says it's "unrecognized".

Control sequences work - ie I can exit with C-x C-e.

Works fine in regular Mac OS X terminal.

Any suggestions appreciated. Looks like an awesome project!

jalopy··on Hedge Fund Math: Heads We Win, Tails You Lose
There are some funds that have much better incentive structures than the standard 2-and-20. In particular, some funds charge an incentive fee over a hurdle rate of say, 6%. Even more fair to investors - this hurdle rate compounds and is subject to a high water mark - where the management company must beat the previous highest amount attained by the fund by the compounding hurdle rate. Additionally, some managers also credit any (usually lower) management fee to the incentive fee.

The downside is that the incentive fees get much more complicated - too complicated to lay out here. I've modeled the scenarios in the following Google Spreadsheet (feel free to copy and play around with this): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RlB4iwg42dEa-atdti4H...

If you do check it out:

Notice that in the [high ret] scenarios, there's little difference in total fees charged between the "fair" 6% hurdle and the 2-and-20 scenario. However, in the [low ret] scenario, the fee difference can be quite substantial: $227k for 2-and-20 vs $70k for the 6% hurdle scenario. And the resulting

Please feel free to copy and play with the values if you'd like. I'd love to discuss in more depth.

The 6% hurdle is a reasonably fair expectation of annualized stock market returns going forward for next 10-20yrs. If there's sufficient interest please reply to this comment and I can detail reasons why, most likely in a full fledged post.

(Over the next 3-5 years, I believe "market returns" - defined as those received from SPY ETF - are likely to be less than 6% from this point (Dec 23 2016), possibly significantly so.)

jalopy··on Machine Learning and Ketosis
This is freaking genius. Kudos. I wish I could upvote this 1000x.
jalopy··on Crystal: Fast as C, Slick as Ruby
Great stuff. I love Ruby. Any idea when this will be production worthy, or at least stable enough to trust on internal projects? Will the language change much going forward?
jalopy··on Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Takes $1B Position in Apple
IBM is a master at reinvention. They regularly discard unprofitable businesses and expand into profitable ones. In 2014, they disposed of businesses representing $7b in revenue but -$500m in profit.

Managing to the future by getting rid of the dead weight is the only way you can survive to be a 100+ year old company in the technology space.

jalopy··on Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Takes $1B Position in Apple
Very good summary of circle of competence. Obviously a bit more complicated than that in practice, but this is probably 80% of it.
jalopy··on Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Takes $1B Position in Apple
But it is a pretty large bet for Todd and/or Ted, who each manage ~$8-10b. In that light, this is a pretty significant statement about one (or both) of their judgements of Apple's value relative to quoted market price.
jalopy··on Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Takes $1B Position in Apple
Agree on these points. Also, across the dozens of businesses fully owned by Berkshire Hathaway, he has unique insight into the tech vendors that those businesses rely on. The rumor is that he polled a significant portion of the managers of these businesses which helped to inform his decision that IBM would be around for a long, long time.
jalopy··on Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Takes $1B Position in Apple
[edit]Disclosure - I am a Berkshire Hathaway investor and more intense than average follower of the company and it's top management.[/edit]

This is almost certainly a bet by Ted Weschler or Todd Combs - Buffett's chief investing lieutenants.

Buffett has maintained his aversion to tech as he doesn't "understand"[1] it, and I see nothing to indicate he's changed his mind at this stage in the game.

Also - a $1bn investment is relatively small change for Buffett, but fits squarely within the size range of Ted and Todd's reported $8-10b (each) investment warchest.

[1]: Not "understanding" doesn't mean he doesn't or couldn't understand the technology aspects; rather, it means he doesn't have the ability to see which of the participants will survive and thrive in 10 years time to justify an investment today. IBM is a notable exception.

jalopy··on Note from Mark Zuckerberg
Interesting that he's going to start giving away shares now. Makes me wonder if he doesn't see much more financial upside to FB, at least at current price levels.

If there's a lot more value to to accrue to his FB stock (even on a time-discounted basis), wouldn't he want to rationally wait for the future value of those shares to materialize to have maximum impact?

Alternatively he could just think that the value to society of funding the right causes (in his mind) is just that much greater than the time-discounted future value.

jalopy··on AI generated music to improve focus, relaxation and sleep
Curious about the tech/science behind this. Is it mostly binaural beats?
jalopy··on Kemal: Fast, simple web framework for Crystal
Very cool stuff - love to see the power and expressiveness of Ruby in a much faster form. Frameworks like this help make the ecosystem more legitimate.
jalopy··on The Advertising Bubble
Why haven't you moved back? Genuinely curious.
jalopy··on Early employees take the most risk today
Great, great article.

I'd like to add: This, I think, is one of the big reasons why startups prefer hiring young people (ie, recent grads) - young people just don't know any better. They have the barest idea (if any) what dilution, ratchets, preferred participations, etc does to their already minuscule equity package.

"OMG I'm getting 70,000 shares!" is what I thought about my first startup. Wasn't even offered (and didn't bother to think about) anything else.

Perhaps I'm projecting too much of my ignorance back then on newly minted grads now, but it's safe to say that lack of experience in the myriad of different ways things can (and most likely, 99% chance) will devalue the work I'm willing to put into a company at 80+ hour weeks.

The most inane argument I hear from founders nowadays is "we just got funding, so we're de-risked". Nice try. Just cause you sold someone with money to burn (VCs have a bias to action - "gotta get that IRR to our LPs in 10 years!") does not mean you've de-risked anything. Proper de-risking comes from finding a real product-market fit, with achievable financials metrics that pave the way to real profitability. Anything else is just greater fool theory - hoping a greater fool comes around and buys the company's story.

EDIT: Member notacoward has a great comment about rank and file employees also not appreciating the back-end commitment usually required at an acquirer. In the highly "fortunate" event where the startup is acquired, there's usually at least a 2-3 year commitment after that fact to get liquidity. This is assuming liquidity is even available! With the ever-telescoping horizon to an IPO for even the "unicorns", I wouldn't be surprised if most rank and file employees are committed to 6, 7, even 8 years to achieve full (diluted) value of their option packages.

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