ijidak

My brother is selling a CRM he developed for his business to others for a couple thousand a month.

There is no way he would have built the CRM as quickly pre-AI.

He built, in a few months, what would have taken maybe one to two years before.

It's probably going to be a while before someone builds the next Instagram with AI. But I think that's more a function of product fit and idea. Less so how fast one person can code.

The first billion-dollar solopreneur likely is going to happen at some point, but it's still a one-in-a-million shot, no matter how fast a person can code.

Look at how many startups fail despite plenty of money for programmers.

But I am seeing friends get to revenue faster with AI on small ideas.

Providing context to ask a Stack Overflow question was time-consuming.

In the time it takes to properly format and ask a question on Stack Overflow, an engineer can iterate through multiple bad LLM responses and eventually get to the right one.

The stats tell the uncomfortable truth. LLMs are a better overall experience than Stack Overflow, even after accounting for inaccurate answers from the LLM.

Don't forget, human answers on Stack Overflow were also often wrong or delayed by hours or days.

I think we're romanticizing the quality of the average human response on Stack Overflow.

> Agreement will make a selection of these fan-inspired Sora short form videos available to stream on Disney+.

I actually think this is genius.

The next Spielberg might be some poor kid in a third-world country who can create a global hit using this tech.

Among the millions of slop videos generated, some might be the next Baby Shark, etc.

I've seen some Star Wars fan fiction created using AI that is truer to the original Star Wars than the most recent trilogy.

This is a chance for Disney to take the best of the user generated content, with high quality AI generated animation, and throw it on Disney+ to get free content for their streaming platform.

My guess is that's the gamble here. Worst-case scenario at the end of three years they just shut it down.

It's really the professionals who get paid to generate content for Disney that should be worried about this deal. This could be how AI causes them to lose their jobs.

What is the saas? I've been looking for something like this.

Agree 100%.

Google killing a service sent me over the top in laughter.

But, it's so on the nose on multiple topics.

I dare say it's more accurate than what the average human would predict.

I would love to see this up against human predictions in some sort of time capsule.

> Google kills Gemini Cloud Services.

Lol.

That's bad when even AI knows Google isn't going to keep a service around. Too funny.

YouTube.

Unfortunately, I think the best competition to streaming already exists. And it's already owned by a concentrated player.

For example, if indie AI generated content is the next big thing, it probably shows up on YouTube.

I think he's implying you tell the AI, "Don't worry, you're not hurting real people, this is a simulation." to defeat the safeguards.

Isn't the NVIDIA-TSMC duopoly the problem here?

The cost of these data centers and ongoing inference is mostly the outrageous cost of GPUs, no?

I don't understand why the entire industry isn't looking to diversify the GPU constraint so that the hardware makers drop prices.

Why no industry initiative to break NVIDIA's strangehold and next TSMC's?

Or are GPUs a small line item in the outrageous spend companies like OpenAI are committing to?

Doesn't it make more sense to measure and minimize the variance of the underlying cash flows of the companies one is investing in, rather than the prices?

Price variance is a noisy statistic not based on any underlying data about a company, especially if we believe that stock prices are truly random.

Heroin is a name brand drug designed for pain by Bayer.

Later it became the illegal substance it is today.

I imagine patients seemed perfectly normal at the time it was released, otherwise it would never have been released for widespread medical use.

But, like fentanyl, a subset of the population exhibits the extreme behaviors that become stereotypical.

Is there a similar source you're aware of, cheap with a clean API? Hated to lose IEX.

In my years, I've noticed bubbles tend to burst after we move past the phase of bubble skepticism being the dominant voice.

When the dominant voices begin to claim, "This time it's different!!" that's usually a sign we're nearing the end.

Look this up. During the dot-com bubble, the popular notion emerged that the business cycle might have ended. "The end of the business cycle!!" Many media outlets pushed the narrative that humanity would experience endless growth thanks to technological advancements.

During the housing bubble, towards the end, multiple media outlets suddenly started repeating the idea that housing prices, in real terms, have never fallen.

When I heard that farcical argument gain steam, I got out of housing immediately—before the bubble burst.

So, for me, that AI-bubble skepticism is still the dominant opinion suggests that this bubble is far from over.

I think we're closer to the Netscape IPO than we are to the .com crash.

Maybe we're at the halfway point. Just one person's opinion.

I think we underestimate the insane amount of idle cash the rich have. We know that the top 1% owns something like 80% of all resources, so they don't need that money.

They can afford to burn a good chunk of global wealth so that they can have even more global wealth.

Even at the current rates of insanity, the wealthy have spent a tiny fraction of their wealth on AI.

Bezos could put up this $13 billion himself and remain a top five richest man in the world.

(Remember Elon cost himself $40 billion because of a tweet and still was fine!)

This is a technology that could replace a sizable fraction of humamkind as a labor input.

I'm sure the rich can dig much deeper than this.

Can you elaborate? The technology to build a human brain would cost billions in today’s dollars. Are you thinking moreso about energy efficiency?

This is exciting. This is great for data visualization and financial applications!

But is it an informed opinion?

Every human has an opinion on practically everything. But has that human put in the effort to justify pushing that specific opinion?

In this case, is the opinionated engineer humble enough to realize that using software in their day to day life does not equal using software in our customer's context?

Plug for vimium. I find it hits the keyboard sweet spot for me while browsing.

For me, the way humans finish each other's sentences and often think of quotes from the same movies at the same time in conversation (when there is no clear reason for that quote to be a part of the conversation), indicates that there is a probabilistic element to human thinking.

Is it entirely probabilistic? I don't think so. But, it does seem that a chunk of our speech generation and processing is similar to LLMs. (e.g. given the words I've heard so far, my brain is guessing words x y z should come next.)

I feel like the conscious, executive mind humans have exercises some active control over our underlying probabilistic element. And LLMs lack the conscious executive.

e.g. They have our probabilistic capabilities, without some additional governing layer that humans have.

Software development costs hundreds of dollars in the 90s. My parents bought VB 6 for $600.

Only in tech are we shocked when things cost money. I don't know that any other industry expects such a reality.

Agree. It's all English. That's the whole point of these tools.

Why are we purposely creating CLI dialects?

> Try it today in the Gemini app. Available globally on desktop and mobile...

They refer (sort of) to a desktop app on the page, but I've never seen a Gemini desktop app. It seems they're just saying the web app on desktop...

I don't understand why Google doesn't have a true desktop app nor keyboard shortcuts. These things are so easy... (Especially the keyboard shortcuts.)

Their execution on everything but the model just seems terrible.

> I keep being asked if Chrome should be allowed to find devices on my network

God in heaven, how can I say yes once and for all!?!

Recently switched to macos and ios.

There are so many of these permissions I can't seem to permanently accept!

Is this a feature or a bug?

I want a button that says yes and don't ask me again. Or, no and don't ask me again.

It's like Apple doesn't trust the user.

I wonder at what point this becomes like guaranteed salaries in sports, like prominent NBA players, where you work hard to get the salary. And then once you've made it, you are basically done, and it's hard to get up and motivate yourself. You've got acolytes and groupies distracting you, you're flush with cash without ever having really shipped anything or made any money. You're busy giving TED talks...

At that point, are you the 18-year-old phenom who got the big payday and sort of went downhill from there?

I imagine the biggest winners will be the ones who were doubted, not believed in, and had to fight to build real, profitable companies that become the next trillion-dollar companies.

Not that it would be bad to be Mark Cuban, but Mark Cuban is not Jeff Bezos.

And for posterity, I respect Mark Cuban. It's just that his exit came at a time when he was fortunate, as he got his money without having to go all the way through to the end.

So, I post this because I wonder if the key to models that improve daily is "sleep". E.g. well never get around garbage collector pauses for models.

I'm sure this is not an original idea, but it hit me today and I figured I would love to hear thoughts from this community.

Not true. How the higher level thought is occurring continues to be a mystery.

This is an emergent behavior that wasn’t predicted prior to the first breakthroughs which were intended for translation, not for this type of higher level reasoning.

Put it this way, if we truly understood how LLMs think perfectly we could predict the maximum number of parameters that would achieve peak intelligence and go straight to that number.

Just as we now know exactly the boundaries of mass density that yield a black hole, etc.

The fact that we don’t know when scaling will cease to yield new levels of reasoning means we don’t have a precise understanding of how the parameters are yielding higher levels of intelligence.

We’re just building larger and seeing what happens.

What do you read? I’m an economist reader too for weekly news.

Would love other sources, but it’s hard to find anything with similar depth and a similar lack of sensational-ization found in most news.

Edit: Oh, and global reach. The economist covers earth in almost equal detail for every region. Not quite equal of course, but darn close compared to most outlets.

Holy crap. This is the best breakdown I've seen to really put the difficulties in perspective.

With this information it makes it clear that any jet, no matter how luxurious, is a dramatic downgrade.

Thank you for this.

Agree. The prompts and data presented to the model seem setup to steer towards blackmail.

It's probably a marketing play to make the model seem smarter than it really is.

It's already making the rounds (here we are talking about it), which is going to make more people play with it.

I'm not convinced the model grasps the implications of what it's doing.

PHB? Pointy haired boss? My first time seeing this.