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ianm218

531 karma · joined June 13, 2025

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ianm218··on Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion
This was written in November 2025, Claude Code and co dramatically accelerated growth of revenue and progress on their timeline towards nationalization etc.

Gary Marcus’ takes have aged really poorly over time ironically he is the “AI expert” who has to constantly move the goal posts.

ianm218··on Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion
Do you have a source on aggregate predictions of experts being drastically wrong?

I.e. the AI 2027 guys were memed for being AI lunatics on a lot here and they have been pretty on the money in terms of pace of progress accelerating/ gov moving towards nationalization/ coding agents

ianm218··on Did Anthropic ask for this?
I think this is a cool angle to pursue! But your model of the world definitely has a lot of assumptions here.

> RSI within a top-down, concentrated power structure creates an unstable equilibrium and will instantly devolve into an epic power struggle. If you control the company/computers/military with the one most powerful thing, you control everything else

With a more stable government you can definitely imagine a situation where someone like Anthropic would work closely with the government in a Manhattan style project to solve alignment as soon as RSI is close. This admin definitely has a more "might makes right" view of the world and I'm not sure they would go that direction.

ianm218··on Salesforce to Acquire Fin (formerly Intercom) for $3.6BN
Salesforce had ~14 billion in free cash flow last year they have tons of money.
ianm218··on Did Anthropic ask for this?
Both companies business case is currently on being at the frontier so this is definitely bearish. OpenAI seems likely to use this to become the preferred lab of the government and maybe have them take a stake, so maybe they will succeed with regulatory capture.

Not like I have any inside info.

ianm218··on Did Anthropic ask for this?
> so the burden of proof is on them

I was mainly responding to this I know what you mean.

The reason I bring up OpenAI is because a lot of the discourse has boiled down to "both sides are the same" which I don't think is fair.

ianm218··on Did Anthropic ask for this?
Can you be more specific on what you mean - how would you prove what anyone believes about something short of reading minds and what would proof look like to you?

Here is Dario writing about AI safety in 2016 [1]. Dario and others in the Anthropic circle have long been associated [2] with the effective altruism movement, which whatever you think about them, they are very concerned about AI existential risks. Ronan Farrow & the New Yorker did a mega deep dive on Sam Altmans history of being dishonest and manipulative, and it credibly reports that Anthropic cofounders left due to not trusting leadership there with safety.

On the other hand we have decades long evidence of Altman and co. being dishonest and employing people like Chris Lehane [3]. I have no affiliation with Anthropic beyond being a user of their products to be clear but it feels like HN is going to end up on the wrong side of this one.

[1]. https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.06565 [2]. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/53Gc35vDLK2u5nBxP/... [3]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Lehane

ianm218··on Did Anthropic ask for this?
What I feel like is missing in the common discourse here is that Anthropic genuinely believes that AI poses an existential risk for humanity either in terms of literal survival or extreme mass surveillance, human disempowerment etc. So if you take these risks seriously, which the median commentor on HN obviously doesn't, what is the right thing to do?

I.e. OpenAI just went full evil corpo mode and went all in on the Leading the Future PAC [1] to try and prevent any kind of regulation.

I feel like there is a reasonable path where they might agree with OP that the government has "mostly gone insane" but also think that US getting its act together and leading the way on sane regulation will be key to getting to a good outcome with AI.

[1]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leading_the_Future

ianm218··on The redistribution of housing wealth caused by rent control (2023) [pdf]
The point is just to increase housing supply not create “affordable housing”. Right now there is massively more demand than supply, so any incremental unit is still very expensive. We’ve strangled housing supply for so long that it seems like the only way is for the state to come in and do rent control.

We start allowing supply again and the less desireable places on the commuter rail i.e: Brockton/ bridgewater/ Randolph get truly affordable over time, “top” destinations like Weston housing price growth stalls out at least.

I’ve never seen an area more adverse to economics 101 than Boston.

ianm218··on Caddy compatibility for zeroserve: 3x throughput and 70% lower latency
Isn't there a chicken and egg problem where projects need to start with 0 track record? Nginx had zero track record at one point as well
ianm218··on The redistribution of housing wealth caused by rent control (2023) [pdf]
I think your model is off. If single family homes got rezoned to allow large complexes near trains, those plots of land would be worth more and it would likely be worth it for the people living there to eventually sell to developers. This doesn't require the city or state buying anyone out.

In the greater boston area NIMBY's are incredibly effective and will pull out every stop. I.e. instead of designating normal areas as multifamily, they will designate a portion of a golf course as multi family so you'd have to buy out the whole golf course [1].

It really is sad MA is 50/50 in housing produciton per capita [2]. Despite being severely under built and very desirable place to live, and then everyone pretends to be progressive. Michelle Wu in Boston uses "affordable housing" to bring all residential construction to a halt.

[1]. https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/marblehead-david-modica-...

[2]. https://x.com/JohnEDeaton1/status/1988753789076062606

ianm218··on AI OSS tool repo goes archived over night after raising $7.3M Seed
Is there anything your willing to share on what went into the decision/ what you learned about trying to build this kind of product?
ianm218··on Statement on US government directive to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5
The people there genuinely thinking that AI could end up being more dangerous than nuclear bombs or COVID or anything else as well as a decisive national security tool. There is theoretical backing for that as well as lately practical results. I don't really understand the hand waiving about drama even if you don't personally share those concerns.
ianm218··on We've suspended access to Claude Mythos 5 and Claude Fable 5
I feel like it is strange seeing some really smart people go full conspiracy theory tin foil hat. Half these threads think that Anthropic is playing some 5D chess game to purposefully get nationalized.
ianm218··on Statement on US government directive to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5
So should we have more people behaving like Sam Altman and just lying about existential risks and anything else?
ianm218··on Grit: Rewriting Git in Rust with agents
My perspective is that it is good to have a beta in a lot of directions.

No one really knows what the endgame of software security looks like.

So some people should try the port to rust angle, some should focus on hardening the C, some should explore more exotic options like formally provable languages etc

ianm218··on Grit: Rewriting Git in Rust with agents
Here is an example https://github.com/ianm199/nginx-rs-port/blob/main/crates/ng...

Basically I use these "kits" to prove that the behavior is working as expected with mocked data/ interfaces and then only after these kits pass I'll run the real test suite files as confirmation. So these let you iterate a lot faster than the official test suite because it is very slow.

These are bootstrapped from the real tests.

The other commenter was being a bit dismissive but this is the kind of thing I'm taking away as a real useful pattern to do verification of behavior at scale.

ianm218··on Grit: Rewriting Git in Rust with agents
https://securityaffairs.com/192132/hacking/nginx-rift-an-18-...

The project was inspired by that. Also unlike most other projects, nginx is directly exposed to the internet often times which makes it more vulnerable than i.e. Redis/ Valkey or something that would be running within a companies network generally.

"C Bad" is a bit reductionist... but I think there is some truth to the take " Until you have the evidence, don’t bother with hypothetical notions that someone can write 10 million lines of C without ubiquitious memory-unsafety vulnerabilities – it’s just Flat Earth Theory for software engineers" [1]

NSA and other government orgs are also pushing people to stop using C [2] for important software.

[1]. https://alexgaynor.net/2020/may/27/science-on-memory-unsafet... [2]. https://linuxsecurity.com/news/government/nsa-s-plea-stop-us...

ianm218··on Grit: Rewriting Git in Rust with agents
We're literally in a thread on converting legacy C projects to idiomatic Rust? It seems many people are working on this same problem.
ianm218··on Grit: Rewriting Git in Rust with agents
Well the biggest goal was to be useful. Nginx serves ~20% of the web, memory unsafe languages might just become untractable for critical exposed to the web infra if the rate of critical CVE's on these rises faster than they can be patched, so a drop in replacement would be a big deal in that world.

But in terms of learning I'm learning relatively little about how to type Rust into an editor but a lot about how to set up agentic loops that can autonomously get tests to pass and improve performance.

For example if you just tell a frontier model (gpt5.5 or Claude Code 4.8) to make some portion of the tests pass they will take forever and just bang their heads against it. I developed a framework to mimic a lot of these tests in nginx... but in minimum non blocking ways so you can run many in parallel with short feedback loops.

Similar for performance - how to make tons of performance benchmark and expose maximum telemetry for agents to go and analyze the hotpaths etc.

ianm218··on What it feels like to work with Mythos
Yeah an example is that currently you can't build Bevy games in the browser with scripting in Lua, so I've gotten a little traction there.

And yes it seems like there has been many attempts to get a solid Rust Lua over the years and most never reached parity so hoping some people can find use case for it! This one is at full parity in terms of behavior and performance is getting to within striking distance.

ianm218··on Grit: Rewriting Git in Rust with agents
There is often good reasons for these purposeful digressions. I.e. in nginx the unit tests cover cyphers that are considered unsafe and not supported by modern libraries like rustls https://github.com/rustls/rustls. It is reasonable to make a new implementation and leave behind a bit of baggage.
ianm218··on Grit: Rewriting Git in Rust with agents
I have been working on the same problem in other areas. My ultimate goal is to rewrite nginx in Rust passing as much as the upstream tests as possible while leveraging the strongest aspects of Ruts ecosystem - i.e. rustls (modern memory safe OpenSSL), Tokio (async runtime), h2 (http 2 impl) rather than implementing from scratch like the upstream. I started with Lua, then porting over Valkey, and now working on nginx. The reason was because I wanted to learn the ins and outs before taking on the most complex portion.

[1]. https://github.com/ianm199/lua-rs/tree/main Lua

[2]. https://github.com/ianm199/valdr Valkey/ Redis

[3]. https://github.com/ianm199/nginx-rs-port nginx

Happy to answer any questions on the approach! When I started a few weeks ago the harnesses on their own were not good enough to get very far without a "meta harness" of sorts but that is changing largely with Claude Workloads and Mythos. A lot of the work is developing some custom tooling to move these along faster.

ianm218··on What it feels like to work with Mythos
Mlua works for many use cases but is a wrapper around the C code, so you need to bundle C as part of the build. So this is worse for cross compilation and makes it so you can't easily use mlua projects in wasm32-unkown-unknown. An example is that it would be hard to run a game in the browser that exposes Lua scripting with mlua.

The other reason is that because mlua is just a wrapper around the C code, it has unsafe you can't really get around. So for example Lua is used in Redis, which has this critical CVE https://github.com/redis/redis/security/advisories/GHSA-4789... that a memory safe version of Lua wouldn't have to deal with.

Mlua is still fine or even better for many other cases though!

ianm218··on What it feels like to work with Mythos
I’ve been working on implementing some common web infra type projects in Rust lately. Basically trying to use a lot of the great primatives in Rust like rustls (modern openSSL) and Tokio (async) to build memory safe or close, nginx drop in replacements.

A small portion of this effort is having a high quality Lua in Rust repo. I’m using mythos to fix some of the performance issues with my Lua interpreter that gpt 5.5/ opus 4.8 had stone walled on.

Not sure if Mythos will be able to crack this but it has been running for a couple hours now with some promising results.

Performance charts linked here if your curious https://github.com/ianm199/lua-rs

ianm218··on A Farmer Donated Land to Turn into a Park. The City Is Building a Data Center
My point is just we don't need to jump right to everything is a hype train and it's all a conspiracy to pump stocks. You are welcome to disagree with Tao or anyone elses line of thinking.

> Any software producing stochastic or probabilistic output and cannot produce verifiable, repeatable, and predictable data cannot fundamentally replace something that requires a high level of proof and validation

Human output is also stochastic and probabilistic - our brains are not deterministic software. There is no fundamental reason we couldn't replace the human role in research with some form of AI (LLM or otherwise) if AI keeps improving.

ianm218··on A Farmer Donated Land to Turn into a Park. The City Is Building a Data Center
I'm not sure what you mean, we have already scaled up AI exponentially. The amount of AI compute in the world has been doubling every 7 to 8 months [1], so it is already exponential despite not being able to do human or super human research. The % of all AI compute going towards academic style knowledge research is quite low as well. So it stands to reason AI Compute used to do research would in fact scale up exponentially if we did figure out how use weights in a datacenter to do frontier research.

That doesn't mean were going to go right to Dyson spheres so that every possible molecule is going towards scaling.

[1] https://epoch.ai/trends

ianm218··on A Farmer Donated Land to Turn into a Park. The City Is Building a Data Center
I've seen a lot of people indicate they think people's predictions for the future with AI are like a psy-op and that none of them really believe it.

Isn't it simpler to believe that people like Terrance Tao who have been in good standing with the academic community for a long time are telling the truth? Like you may very well disagree with their predictions based on your lived experience or theories... But it doesn't take some crazy leap of faith to follow their logic of "AI could get better at fundamental/ applied STEM research than humans -> we can scale this up exponentially -> scaled up human level or super human level research will lead to major scientific breakthroughs".

Like sure CEO's like Amodei/ Altman/ and Musk may have an incentive to hype things up but not every opinion by every smart person has to be part of some grand conspiracy.

ianm218··on Nvidia partners with LG robotics to build humanoid robots in South Korea
You say it worries you more than pure digital AI but don't explain. What is it about that humanoids that makes you worry?
ianm218··on Launch HN: Intuned (YC S22) – Build and run reliable browser automations as code
Where have you found early traction with users? Why has your solution been useful for these users relevant to the other options?
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