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ianbutler

5,703 karma · joined February 11, 2019

Twitter: @kinglycrow Threads: @1tbutler BlueSky: @kinglycrow.bsky.social

Email: ian t butler 0 1 @ gmail.com

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ianbutler··on Agora-1: The Multi-Agent World Model
gaming is all about simulation after all
ianbutler··on I don't think AI will make your processes go faster
Eh fair enough!
ianbutler··on I don't think AI will make your processes go faster
That's great and all, but that's not the point I was making and you're engaging rather uncharitably on it. So when you view it from the perspective of capability increase it's rather impressive. Note the slope of progress which this experiment was to show.

Edit: Maybe uncharitably is too strong, but we're talking past each other.

ianbutler··on I don't think AI will make your processes go faster
> Can they write production software without careful and close human supervision? Not yet. That's not disparagement, just an observation of where we are today.

I never claimed they could! I just view this as a successful experiment. I don't think anthropic was making that claim with their experiment either.

It feels reflexive to the moment to argue against that claim, but I tend to operate with a bit more nuance than "all good" or "all bad".

ianbutler··on I don't think AI will make your processes go faster
Sorry where are we seeing that it failed? It compiled multiple projects successfully albeit less optimized.

" It lacks the 16-bit x86 compiler that is necessary to boot Linux out of real mode. For this, it calls out to GCC (the x86_32 and x86_64 compilers are its own).

It does not have its own assembler and linker; these are the very last bits that Claude started automating and are still somewhat buggy. The demo video was produced with a GCC assembler and linker.

The compiler successfully builds many projects, but not all. It's not yet a drop-in replacement for a real compiler. The generated code is not very efficient. Even with all optimizations enabled, it outputs less efficient code than GCC with all optimizations disabled.

The Rust code quality is reasonable, but is nowhere near the quality of what an expert Rust programmer might produce. "

For faffing about with a multi agent system that seems like a pretty successful experiment to me.

Source: https://www.anthropic.com/engineering/building-c-compiler

Edit: Like I think people don't realize not even 7 months ago it wasn't writing this at all.

ianbutler··on The other half of AI safety
ChatGPT is the name of their in web chat product. So no enterprise, no api.
ianbutler··on The other half of AI safety
https://openai.com/index/scaling-ai-for-everyone/

Nope that number is strictly about ChatGPT

"ChatGPT is where people start with AI, with more than 900M weekly active users, and we now have more than 50 million consumer subscribers."

People who go there and chat with gpt for search are definitely normal users. Just because you don't like the numbers doesn't mean you get to torture them.

ianbutler··on The other half of AI safety
I mean that was pretty much the case in hiring before AI too frankly. It's not like it's been any better on power dynamics and right now applicants are using AI at an alarming rate as well.

I'm not really moved by your type of argument, because hiring is just a broken process in general and I'm responding to the article so.

ianbutler··on The other half of AI safety
OpenAI has 900 million weekly active users. So around 0.01% are having problems. That's actually way less than population level measures for the same symptoms on a bigger percentage of people relative to the US on just suicidal ideation alone.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/74/wr/mm7412a4.htm

ianbutler··on AI Slop Is Killing Online Communities
I mean I think the dynamics are a bit different in online communities at least for actual communities and not drive by subs like r/technology or whatever.

Especially say here on HN with Show HN and such the forcing factors are "i get no votes or community recognition"

But I don't entirely disagree with you I think things won't totally go back I think it will settle way more than now though especially where things are a little more niche.

ianbutler··on AI slop is killing online communities
I made this point elsewhere, but people are learning a lot of what us had to learn the old way which is no one cares about your stuff for the most part and now the value provided has to go way up to get people to care. That is, as the author says, the novelty has worn off and since we know it's AI the perceived value is also way down.

We're all recalibrating.

I do really think this is just a quick period in time before most people realize that the slop posting doesn't help them personally get anything and most give up and we go back to roughly the ratio of cool things with real value to see but like on a bigger scale because AI helps you do more as one person.

ianbutler··on OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
I want my party back and I want to cut out all the garbage that has infested it. Sometimes that requires taking an actual stand and staying firm to it. Middle road nonsense like what you're suggesting is impotent when one side has so clearly decided to be against it.

Edit: And coming back to this later I need to be clear the left also needs to be swept out. I think our institutions in general need to be reworked. Not replaced entirely, but it's clear they don't survive contact with people who would abuse them for their own ends nearly as well as we had hoped.

ianbutler··on OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
My argument is more along the lines of "slow change has resulted in decline observably for the time period I have observed it and we should try catalyzing something else"

I grant that whether that winds up being fast or slow even if the attempt is intended to be fast is out of my or anyone's hands for the most part as the system dampens that barring total collapse and chaos :P

ianbutler··on OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
Of course they do. Most of their platform is built on [appearing] to repudiate coastal elitism and left wing dogma in higher education + globalism with a healthy dose of fuck you because you're you.

And I graciously waited and allowed them to do things that will take decades if not more to repair before deciding they were irredeemable. I had hoped a middle ground and bipartisan ship would be reached, but it's clear to me it won't be. We do not inhabit the same universe at this point, the disdain is mutual.

You’re acting like I’ve always thought about them like this or like I haven't spent years observing and thinking about this to come to my conclusion. You'd do well to listen to your own words about theory of mind. I was raised conservative I voted for Romney. I'm a fan of many of the political platforms they run on now (minus originalism, removing bodily rights, religion), but in practice they do not walk their own talk. The wars, the spending, abandoning neo-liberalism except in word the blatant corruption and disdain for the positions they hold and how they appear on the world stage.

No, I’ve watched their actions for 15 years and moved ever closer to the position that I have nothing in common with them even being ideologically close to a version of their party from 20-30 years ago and they do so blatantly want to destroy the middle class, health, and wealth for anyone outside a small oligarchic class.

I'm pissed because they wear a lot of my ideology as cheap dress to fuck someone.

ianbutler··on OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
I think the time for the normal decorum and extended hand have passed.
ianbutler··on OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
Im an independent who would prefer a version of republicanism that died and the closest thing I have is a deeply ineffective party. While the right is currently building things I don't like to put in place institutions and laws I dont like.

All of you talking about the right destroying things are wrong they’re just building things and enshrining things you wont like.

ianbutler··on OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
The republicans are building things not just destroying is the point. It’s just stuff you wont like. This is why Im not a democrat. The left hasn't been able to effect change or be useful ever [my entire life], sure loves to moralize though.
ianbutler··on OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
No offense, but this comes off as passive indifference and while I've heard people say things like this all my life it has broadly resulted in watching 30 years of societal decay. I can't help but think this is wrong.

We should have stacked the courts ourselves, brandished executive orders etc, had some spine.

Edit: I think I need to make clear my thinking that the right has selectively destroyed institutions and levied them in other areas where it makes sense for their agenda. It's not been wanton. So when I say leverage the playbook it's not a one sided act of destruction.

ianbutler··on OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
It's increased mine if it works for the repugnant morons in government right now we can use the same playbook for positive change.
ianbutler··on OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
I don't think that's going to work. We need broad political change and then that has to work rapidly to legislate this. I don't think slow and steady has done anything but lead to the decay our institutions over the last 70 years.
ianbutler··on OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
Sounds like we need to dismantle and replace this broadly dysfunctional system at multiple points. It's not like the US insurance landscape is anywhere close to the best way of handling healthcare if you look at many places in the world.
ianbutler··on OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
So much of what I know from women in my life is that the human element of medicine is almost a strict negative for them. As a guy it hasn't been much better, but at least doctors listen to me when I say something.
ianbutler··on Meta to start capturing employee mouse movements, keystrokes for AI training
job market is 2019 levels this rhetoric is nice, but doesn't stack up. yes it's not 2021 levels which is where they over hired and hired a bunch of people they would not have hired before then.
ianbutler··on I gave every train in New York an instrument
I think in 90% of the galleries I've been in the I'm expecting the art to be communicating something so I'm inferring intent or making my own, but by itself art is a poor communication medium imo. So much so we often say it's about whatever YOU perceive from it. Obviously artists set out to invoke --something-- and we accept that and at least some of us try to think on it, but the person perceiving the art is really doing a lot of work to fill in the gaps. Expectations here are aligned.

Most art in stores is just filling space on a wall to bring things together visually. I don't know that anyone cares about it communicating anything other than "the space looks less empty and more appealing for the customer". I don't think the average store owner is thinking any harder than that on it. I guess my point being we're mostly subjected to it based on the perspective we will like it and its cheap.

I think my point is, that the expectation of the people placing the thing for us to view/listen to and our own can be mismatched. I've always viewed the shitty pop in department stores as an imposition on my ears and I've never spared a thought for most wall art in a random cafe, but I imagine the owners are hoping to get something out of it from us. Whether thats satisfaction or manipulating us to spend idk.

ianbutler··on Sam Altman may control our future – can he be trusted?
Interestingly, the smartest people I know have the widest range of media consumption and understanding. To assume that because someone uses a marvel reference they might not have a deeper cultural education is rather...limited thinking.
ianbutler··on Sam Altman may control our future – can he be trusted?
That they relate to the common person and aren't overly snobby?
ianbutler··on The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened
Yeah I started programming in 2006 as a kid and then entered professional work in 2016 I guess as still a kid depending on your perspective :P

This is really the first meteoric rise in tech I've seen / am experiencing first hand.

ianbutler··on The OpenAI Graveyard: All the Deals and Products That Haven't Happened
Thanks for the in depth explanation. I was definitely not up on my tech history here. :)
ianbutler··on The OpenAI Graveyard: All the Deals and Products That Haven't Happened
Ah got it. I wasn’t drawing that connection. Thanks
ianbutler··on The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened
Without me trying to be snarky why do you feel spreadsheet software launching is comparable to this scenario?
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