National geographic is considered a complete joke by scientists and is funded by right wingers so i wouldn't waste a second reading anything there about recreational drugs....
3,324 karma · joined August 5, 2020
Your idea bloody well does matter.
The myth that "your idea doesn't matter, it's all about execution" is complete nonsense. Successful businesses are built by people who understand a problem domain well enough to see how to solve a problem that people will pay more for than it costs to solve the problem, where "costs to solve the problem" encompasses everything, especially all the non-functional requirements.
The world is full of failed software companies where no one thought through all the cost ramifications of getting and serving a customer and figured out whether their idea will fly as a long-term profitable business. And it's also full of complete crap software (or software that started out as crap and then improved) that makes founders lots of cash because the idea was actually something people want to pay for.
I will also say, yes it takes years for most of these companies.
UVic has some great profs in the combination. My supervisor George Tzanetakis is internationally respected in music information retrieval, and Sarah Belle Reid just got my retired music supervisor's job too (Andy Schloss). Feel free to email my user name @ gmail.com if you want to know more.
Basically, we are entering the ransomware apocalypse. It is insane what a godsend gen-AI has been to the cybercrime sector. When all you need to do is make something good enough to fool some of the people some of the time, genAI is perfect.
Things that used to work reliably - like trusting google ads or sponsored links not to be malvertizing sites - are meaningless now that gangs can trivially spin up networks of thousands of fake interacting sites and linked profiles to sneak by fraud detection. Phishing attacks are ridiculously sophisticated, combining voice, text, and video impersonation. Supply chain attacks are going to mean package managers are handgrenades. Ransomware gangs are running full on SaSS services allowing script kiddies access to big gun material. Attacks that were previously only in reach of nation-state-sponsored actors are now available for peanuts. And all of this is going to worse because of everyone and their dog using gen-AI to pump out huge amounts of vulnerable code. And then there is the world of prompt engineering for data exfiltration...
If you are young and wanting a promising trade in tech, security would absolutely be a good choice. Shit is going to get CRAZY.
Relaxing on that thing is hard! :)
Worst piece of enshitification in my daily life.
Also, I would argue that if you really want the benefit of transcribing, don't write it down until you have memorized whatever chunk you are transcribing - the act of memorizing it and learning it solely by ear is where the real value is.
On the other hand, this is not a good way to learn technique or the fretboard, as the easy keys will be vastly overrepresented, and you don't need to know where you are. That's a challenge that's almost unique to guitar and bass, and getting over that hump requires learning material by note name (whether from scores, tabs, or just chord symbols).
(my bonafides: 35 years playing, gig on sax, bass, piano, and percussion, currently doing an interdisciplinary PhD in music and CS, and running a jazz club night where I perform weekly)
The bit they are missing, IMHO, is that if LLMs keep getting better, doing the steering-the-LLM version keeps getting easier, and being an LLM-using-expert rapidly drops to a value of zero. Like literally fucking nothing. If anyone can do it easily with an LLM, why would anyone pay you anything? Why would they care? You might as well be a teenager at a fast food job.
In this scenario, only actually understanding will be any kind of differentiator at all. And if that scenario doesn't come to pass, it will still be a far better differentiator to have a clue.
And then there is the problem that vibecoding is addictive so the more one has done of it on the prototype, the worse one's judgement of whether it's actually something worth building...
I think coders ignore the insidious mental effects of these things at their peril and we would do well to ask ourselves if we are not likewise having our judgment altered by the intoxicating rush of LLM work and the subtle syncophancy of LLMs making them feel "insanely productive".
Cocaine and meth are also real productivity enhansers in the short term, but it doesn't mean they're a good fucking idea. There was a time when big companies were trying to convince everyone and their dog that life would be better, faster, and more productive with a little coke in the mix. Hell, I even saw more than a few people wreck themselves that way in the first dotcom era. :-/
Unfortunately it seems endemic in our field. So many great coders have this laughably naive belief that, because they are good at something that makes them feel like a genius when they solve problems, they are in fact geniuses at solving all problems.
Even more unfortunately, AI seems to ramp that up to 10x along with the code generation.
I'm willing to be the public perception of programmers in general is going to be a lot workse five years from now....
Things are too weird now. Alomst makes me want to just teach music lessons again for way less money. Sigh
I imagine I will greatly reduce my job prospects as a hold out, but honestly, from what I've read I think I'd rather take a hefty pay hit and not go there. It sounds like a mental heath disaster and fast track to serious burnout.
YMMV, I realize I'm in the minority, this is unproductive ranting, yada yada yada