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harry8

8,978 karma · joined February 22, 2014

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harry8··on Review of 1984 by Isaac Asimov (1980)
I enjoyed reading "Foundation" recently. The total lack of female characters was jarring to say the least. Worth the read if you haven't. Not much like the AppleTV series.
harry8··on Child prodigies rarely become elite performers
Let me express it another way.

Think of 5 relevant attributes of your body for playing something well.

Guesstimate where they were on the population bell curve when you were 10.

Guesstimate if these would have been on a different spot on the population bell curve for that attribute when you were an adult. Would you have guessed it when you wee 10? Would others have guessed it about you at that age?

Puberty changes you in unpredictable ways. Do we need a study to know that?

Everyone committing to tennis before they are 10 are elite, you wouldn't do it otherwise. Who is the best player of that elite set changes given the great puberty shake up.

harry8··on Child prodigies rarely become elite performers
Both Dennis Rodman and Hakeem Olajuwon are not 5ft, they are very tall and athletic. That combination is more important than basketball skill attained at 18 years of age. These attributes differs from tennis, or chess. Being elite at being both tall and athletic probably changes the most over puberty?
harry8··on Child prodigies rarely become elite performers
Tiger woods. I can't think of any tennis player who has been in the top 100 for the past few decades who didn't commit to it totally as a young child. Start tennis at 10? Too old. Swimmers. Has anyone stumbled into sporting greatness from being outside the top 5%? Or 1% when they hit adulthood?

So what is being said? A huge amount of elite success is in the hardware, i.e. the body &/or brain. These go through rather large changes between ages 10 an 18. Puberty. This shakes up the ordering among those who showed enough promise to have already committed to becoming elite.

What am I missing here? Seems like this research is nothing more than "Kids change through puberty, the nature and sizes of the changes are a bit of a lottery for each kid." Much like the the genetic factors are also a lottery so you can't reliably predict who is going to be great from the results of their parents. (But if your parents are both 5ft, the NBA seems an unlikely destination for you).

harry8··on Voxtral Transcribe 2
What hardware resources are required for what quality/latency? Multiple high end nvidia or can you run it on your phone on an esp32 offline? Or...

Seems like fundamental info for any model announcement. Did I just miss it? Does everyone just know except me?

harry8··on UK government launches fuel forecourt price API
This sort of thing works well for individuals. Eg.

https://www.fuelcheck.nsw.gov.au/app/FuelPrice/ByLocation?la...

Then you need the integration into home assistant for your local options.

https://www.home-assistant.io/integrations/nsw_fuel_station/

And an app for ease of use when you're out of your local area.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=au.gov.nsw.one...

https://apps.apple.com/au/app/nsw-fuelcheck/id1266569551

How does it affect things across the economy for fuel purchase? Haven't seen a study. It would incentive-ise price cutting to increase sales, especially by the independent operators, by essentially advertising the lower pricing for free, is my guess.

harry8··on Software is mostly all you need
The fact there are a lot of people around who don't think (including me at times!) does mean LLMs doing that are thinking.

Much like LLMs writing text like mindless middle managers, it doesn't mean they're intelligent, more that mindless middle managers aren't.

harry8··on Heathrow scraps liquid container limit
The authorities can't admit they lied. Admit there was never any evidence that phones could interfere with anything on a plane other than the well being those around you. They can't admit they banned mobile phone usage but not skyphones because of special interest pressure.

They can't do this because it would destroy their credibility with the ignorant as much as it has with the informed, that would get a critical mass. So yeah we have "flight mode" and every single flight someone breaks it. It isn't remotely enforceable so it is just as well that connecting to cellular is harmless. (Planes also have expensive wifi instead of expensive skyphones now, so the financial incentive remains.)

Airplane mode was a figleaf to counter "your phone must be switched off" which was the old-school airplane mode enforcement.

Undermining security for little bits of money for special interest. The naked corruption of purpose could make you angry if you let it.

harry8··on Heathrow scraps liquid container limit
So if you drink some of the fluid in front of the goon instead of being instructed to pour the water out, that would show it's not explosive and everything is fine? Test for is this fluid water isn't complex chemistry right? So we're good to go, yeah? No.

It's an attack that never happened and wouldn't. It's nuts.

They should have banned underwear because the underwear bomber /did/ happen. But sure, that's awkward and would impact revenue, (I don't wanna go nude so I won't fly unless I have to), so the ridiculousness of doing so triumphed where it did not with water and shoes.

Lock on the cockpit door was worthwhile (unless the threat is a psychotic German copilot, worked bad then). Also the successful terrorist strategy had expired useless even before the end of its first use on 9/11 as passengers found out, realised new rules: fight back now, hard.

Bastards at Heathrow stole a sealed jar of Fortnum & Mason jam from me. For security! Because onion jam could blow up a plane. FFS. But sure, you could buy the same stuff once through security and take it on the plane at inflated prices. Where there was a financial incentive to do so and a secial interest to lobby for it, the idiocy stopped. In 5 meters.

The purpose of these moronic rules was /not/ what you think it was. It was just a sequence of moronic compromises around dumb ideas influenced by special interest. You can't respect it and respect your own intelligence. Security is actually important, do better.

harry8··on Heathrow scraps liquid container limit
On Scoot (Budget Singapore Air) they let you bring your external phone batteries on the plane but do NOT let you use them. You have to rent one of theirs.

Skyphone installation by the airlines led to "flight mode" because the horror of not paying is far more important than safety.

All of this fake, useless theatre undermines real security and makes us less safe while picking our pockets.

Fluids to bring down a plane? FFS every human is equipped with a bladder. Why was this charlatanism ever tolerated at all?

harry8··on How SQLite is tested
Likely the idea came from Atul Gawande, who is a literate surgeon who has done work popularising the idea.

https://atulgawande.com/book/the-checklist-manifesto/

harry8··on Germany: Amazon is not allowed to force customers to watch ads on Prime Video
If pleading is the only way out of the mess, learn to tolerate the mess.
harry8··on Microsoft increases Office 365 and Microsoft 365 license prices
The ironic thing about satire is that sometimes it is very difficult to tell apart from the thing being satirized.

So, like, was that satire? I got a good laugh out of "Multiplayer PowerPoint" either way.

harry8··on Kea DHCP: Modern, open source DHCPv4 and DHCPv6 server
But you still need something to do your dhcp, so maybe not fewer moving parts? Dunno.

I did pi-hole first, then much later decided to use unbound for dns because it looked super easy to add it. It was. Haven't thought about it much since. I hope your experience was as good or better.

harry8··on Kea DHCP: Modern, open source DHCPv4 and DHCPv6 server
Yeah, fair point. And I don't think I've seen a router for sale that wasn't using dnsmasq as a dhcp server for 20 odd years. Must be some, I guess, but haven't encountered them.
harry8··on Kea DHCP: Modern, open source DHCPv4 and DHCPv6 server
I don't know about unbound's blocklists and stats or indeed much about unbound at all.

This: https://docs.pi-hole.net/guides/dns/unbound/ was stupidly simple, pi-hole has a gui that I was already used to and it all works great. So I think about and study other things that need fixing/improving in my life instead.

To flip it, why would I use unbound without pi-hole? What's the win I haven't seen (or even looked at or considered?)

harry8··on Kea DHCP: Modern, open source DHCPv4 and DHCPv6 server
Yeah. Nowadays I use pi-hole which is dnsmasq underneath and use it with unbound.

Works great. Minimal fuss, efficient setup, little maintenance, I don't have to understand the guts. Everything on my local network is addressable.

Ad blocking at the router is also something you don't want live without once you've gone there but pi-hole is a great solution even if you don't want that.

harry8··on Music eases surgery and speeds recovery, study finds
Well even if you are sure about your intuition in the knowledge that this confidence by humans has led to huge problems and tragedies in the past, you still want to have a good estimate of the effect size.

How much resource to allocate to this treatment vs other treatments having a positive effect.

Somewhere there ends up being a trade off that I will caricature as "Do we want another hospital OR another park?"

(All the above is idealised, the biggest win that moves the efficient frontier outwards is effectively fighting corruption and being vigilant defending the gains made. This seems to be universal across countries and cultures).

harry8··on Migrating the main Zig repository from GitHub to Codeberg
You should also consider the point of view of anyone working on github and being paid by microsoft but who actually does care. Note that they are not named and shamed or anything like that.

Do you think there is a chance these hypothetical engineers who care actually want this kind of thing said publicly? And said as poetically invictive laden as possible? The rationale being that they might use such sentiment to get management to see the danger and /start/ caring about product quality?

I've never worked for microsoft. In my experience when product goes into quality decline, rubbish management is >90% of the reason. How futile is fighting that? How futile is fighting it for github? Does github matter in general? My own use is so limited it doesn't directly matter to me. Indirectly it might well do.

harry8··on Migrating the main Zig repository from GitHub to Codeberg
There is a difference between what you say to and about volunteers working for free on their hobby and what you say about the work of a company famously known as "The Death Star"

You want to work with people and the group says "yay and this is how we will work together" you do that or go away. This is entirely separate to stating a universal truth such as "Microsoft product blows because they do not care", "Oracle sucks" or famously "You can't anthropomorphise Larry Ellison"

Did Linus ever blow-torch community volunteers or did he get the pip purely with big corp submitting paid trash for their own purposes? He seems to cop a fair bit himself from people saying thou shalt not...

The standards differ. Microsoft is going to be ok guys.

harry8··on After my dad died, we found the love letters
https://x.com/handbarfs/status/1741365674008559962
harry8··on A friendly tour of process memory on Linux
In addition to search engines you can learn a great deal about all sorts of things using an LLM. This works well enough if you don't want to pay. They are very patient and you canb go as deep as you want. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=DuckDuckGo+AI+Chat&ia=chat&duckai=...
harry8··on Neros has raised $121M to build military drones
Needless to say building the wrong things for the wrong reasons at huge expense is exactly what the military industrial complex wants and spends a great deal on influence to achieve.
harry8··on Warren Buffett's final shareholder letter [pdf]
Note that Warren's personal wealth has been vastly more than he and three generations of his ancestors could ever possibly spend however frivolously for /decades/ now.

The only thin you can do with that money is give it away in charity or politics.

So what has he done with that time? He doesn't seem to be into frivolous spending much at all as far as is reported.

harry8··on Warren Buffett's final shareholder letter [pdf]
Off the top of my head, a couple of examples.

The "white knight" purchase of Salomon Bros stake to "save" them from a hostile takeover was a redistribution of wealth from the existing shareholders who would have accepted the deal to him & his fund. Is that evil? No, I don't think so. Is it perfect ethics, that's a personal ethical call. Colluding with management to redistribute wealth from the shareholders professional managers are meant to serve to yourself? Certainly profitable. Salomon managers kept their jobs and bonuses too. Buffet spoke about how impressed with their ethics he was and that being his motivation. Ok.

The purchase of the Goldman's stake during the GFC at what was it a 20% discount to market? Evil? Again no. Did he insist instead of just taking a huge windfall, on underwriting an offer at that price and throwing it open to small investors so anyone who would back the bank in the crisis collects 20% on top of buying on market? That would be hugely admirable, democratic and patriotic but less profitable.

Going to the start, moving Berkshire's pension fund from debt to equity. Did he get the approval of all the pension plan's beneficiaries for that change in risk? He was right, fine, sure. Was that his risk to take on their behalf? Worked out great. Do you want your pension fund manager going against the accepted wisdom on risk? Well you do if it works, but you can't take on the risk in hindsight. There are no shortage of managers who /know/ they're right and the market is wrong, like he did then. Do you want them to act on that with your assets without your full and informed consent? You (and I) do if it's Warren Buffet but he was not Warren Buffet yet.

On the standards of investment managers he is pretty good, as I said. Is he this perfect paragon of ethics. Well his fans seem to think so (and loudly) and they are allowed to. As am I to differ with that assessment. This is worlds away from declaring that Buffet is in league with both Darth Vader and Sauron to torture innocent babies to an early death and a fate of never having heard of Benjamin Graham. I would say he is far more on the right side of things than wrong and has been largely a force for good in the investment industry. "Which of his perfections impresses you the most?" Give me a break. Critical faculties are worth keeping.

harry8··on Warren Buffett's final shareholder letter [pdf]
It's not a poker position. It is everything.

At 95 you're a lot closer to the end of everything than the start, your body is really giving up and it is exceedingly difficult to enjoy anything much.

The speculation is that buffet would likely give up his entire wealth and have his expertise wiped to wind back his biological clock 70 years. Would he? I don't know, ask him maybe.

What can you do with $100m at 95 you would actually enjoy? Again ask him. Or any elderly friend or relative. It is unlike to be a fun conversation, at least in my experience.

At 25 if you have a windfall of only $1000 you've likely got some ideas!

harry8··on Neros has raised $121M to build military drones
>It almost feels as if the US need(s|ed) to be a bit more involved in the Ukraine war in order to keep their finger on the pulse of how conflicts are...

This grates a little after the utter debacle of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya ...

I'd go 180 degrees the other way. The US needs to be less involved so it can focus on the cancerous legal corruption of all the rackets. Without dealing with that the wrong things will always be built for the wrong reasons at huge cost.

harry8··on Warren Buffett's final shareholder letter [pdf]
He definitely wants us to think that about his integrity, his fans even more so and in fairness, he's pretty good. Not quite the sunday-school capitalism perfection that some would have us believe. Which can grate a bit if you've looked in detail at his career.
harry8··on A friendly tour of process memory on Linux
"Hard Real Time" is the magic phrase to go as deep as you want to.
harry8··on A friendly tour of process memory on Linux
> Was literally just transcoding some video, playing a podcast, and browsing the web.

Yeah that's the perfect use case for current system design. Nobody sane wants to turn that case into an embedded system running a single process with hard deadline guarantees. Your laptop may not be ideal for controlling a couple of tonnes of steel at high speed, for example. Start thinking about how you would design for that and you'll see the point (whether you want to agree or not).

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