> Them: "Hi"
> ...
> Me: "What's up"
> ...
> Them: "Do you have 5 minutes to join this conversation?"
> ...
is awful.
1,110 karma · joined April 13, 2014
Econometrician at Amazon; formerly taught at Iowa State. Obviously everything written here reflects my own opinions and not my employer’s.
> Them: "Hi"
> ...
> Me: "What's up"
> ...
> Them: "Do you have 5 minutes to join this conversation?"
> ...
is awful.
And as a blanket rule of thumb, don't send people chat messages that you wouldn't want to see displayed to an arbitrary meeting full of people. :)
(Nothing against fossil, it sounds lovely. But there needs to be a good reason to choose a niche product here.)
Regardless, “collect and use data from the past,” does not require a “completely steady state,” and is pretty easy to modify. I’d feel a lot better having a conversation around, “this is totally new, do we think it will take about 2x or 5x longer than our normal projects?” Vs “this is totally new, so everyone guess how many months it will take without looking at any relevant data on either past project duration OR the accuracy of your past guesses.”
When people talk about “estimating task size” they almost invariably mean some planning-poker version of the second. Especially in TFA where they bring up forecasting as a better alternative.
> How does this person think an organization schedule, budget and allocate resources?
Collect data and use a trivial prediction model (i.e. median calendar time it took to complete the last 5 stories). Monitor and improve the prediction model over time if necessary. If you’re not collecting data reliably enough to generate a prediction automatically, you’re not taking any of these issues seriously anyway.
But yes — totally agree that “technical leadership” is 100% part of being a senior+ engineer and that almost always requires understanding the business and customers.
These days (in industry) I manage to use pandoc markdown to word for everything (for similar reasons), which is even more limiting than plain TeX. You learn to write around the limitations pretty quickly. :)
1. Avoid meetings that I'm not going to get value from OR am unlikely to add (sufficient) value to.
2. In some meetings I'm going to add more value by facilitating, etc., than by just saying whatever's on my mind.
For 1: I decline a lot more meetings than I used to. Sometimes it's a straight decline, sometimes I'll email the organizor or other people who will be attending and say, "I don't think I have a ton to contribute, but ping me if you need me to jump in," sometimes I'll decline and suggest meeting to provide feedback offline or in a smaller meeting if I actually have suggestions on the topic, etc.
For 2: sometimes you can't get out of going to these meetings. :) If I don't have anything to contribute on the topic of the meetings, taking notes (usually just to share with people on my team who couldn't attend... hopefully the organizer has planned on taking notes as well but :shrug:) or helping ensure that quieter people get a chance to speak is still a way to add value to the meeting without being on top of the subject matter.
Edit: one nice thing about these strategies is that you can apply them regardless of the reason/blame for not following these meetings. It works the same whether it's complete BS or something you really "should" be up to speed on already.
That's not true. There are two problems.
1. The math is set up to rule out a lot of obvious solutions. Write out A_t(x) for the decision rule "always walk right at a constant rate." For any rate, A_t(x) becomes a spike at 1 for t > some threshold that depends on the rate.
2. The math rules out randomness. A_t(x) can't be defined for the decision rule, "flip a coin and walk right half the time, left the other half," because you wind up at 0 with probability 1/2 and 1 with probability 1/2 for t > some threshold and the problem is defined so A_t(x) must resolve to a single point.
Once you do that, the only solutions left are kind of mind fucks. But you can't draw any general conclusions from it.
Having lived in San Diego and SF… they do indeed put up with that shit in many parts of those border states.
Fantastic comment, though. :)