gilbetron

LLMs are legitimate AI for the first time, and have real use cases and have changed things across myriad industries. It's disrupting education in a big way. The google AI search thing is becoming useful. When I look at products on Amazon, I often ask it's AI review thing (Rufus?) questions and it gives me good answers, so good that I don't really validate anymore.

There's massive, intense competition, and know one can predict how it is going to go, so there probably will be things that are bubble-y that pop, sure, but it's not like AI has hit a permanent plateau and we are as far as the tech is going to go. It's just getting started, but it'll probably be a weird and bumpy path.

When I read something like this now, I ask if the person writing it lived that way most of their lives, or lived some other way and now are looking back wishing they had lived another (untested) way. I've heard too many old people tell me things like, "appreciate your family" when they were always gone working and built up an amazing life for their families. When my mother told it to me, I believed it because that's the way she lived.

Survivor bias, is what it comes down to. Beware successful people that tell you platitudes!

Nuke plants are scary when they fail, but the actual threat is way lower than we play it out to be.

It's awful, but I think we'll see it happen, sadly.

Left: Capitalism isn't always perfect, sometimes social policies make a better society.

Right: Capitalism is always perfect, socialism is evil even in the smallest amounts.

I'd recommend a better doctor. My dad was active and sporty well into his late 70s and lived until he was 94.

You oversimplify everything, but this is completely wrong. 320P cameras were useless to pro photographers, but as soon as the capabilities got near to what film could provide, they eagerly switched. Kodak was destroyed, but there wasn't much of a place to pivot to. "Masters of a complex, chemical domain" to "Yet another camera company" isn't a real pivot.

I'm bullish on AI, and think "vibe" coding was/is a cool experiment so don't agree with the premise that it is in the worst idea, but strongly disagree with your simplistic take on how tech is adopted. There are countless ideas that "experts" were right to ignore, ideas sitting in the trash can of history.

I don't think people quite wrap their head around the fact that the US population love their cars and their huge subdivisions. A massive percentage of the US have no desire for walkable cities.

It is a bizarre alien thought to me, too, but it has become very clear to me.

I see people say, "LLMs aren't human intelligence", but instead, I really feel that it shows that many people, and much of what we do, probably is like an LLM. Most people just hallucinate their way through a conversation, they certainly don't reason. Reasoning is incredibly rare.

I hate, hate, hate the Gartner Hype Cycle thing, it's just a dumb statement that things can get overhyped. Instead, I see it as a Cambrian explosion of everybody everywhere trying to find use cases for this new tech. Nearly all of them will fail, but many won't and we'll have a different world in a few years. There will be crashes and crazes and (hopefully) generally positive changes in the world.

It could be Terminator or Handmaid's Tale or 1984, too. The main difference between the 90s and now is that the world is much more educated on the downsides of tech and so there isn't that giddy sense of coolness from the 90s, and that bums me out.

There are a number of regulars that we've seen there for years now. Barely have interacted with them. Suddenly, the past week, through a chance interaction, two of them individually have talked to us and ended up introducing themselves. Plus I see other people talking more and more.

I think we've hit a on-your-own saturation point and the pendulum might swing the other way.

But I'm really staying away from many "predict the AI future" because we just don't know where it is going. I've read thousands of scifi books and nonfiction and futurist and any number of options are open and no one, and I mean no one, knows what will happen with any kind of certainty.

It is not that simple.

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/www/k-12/VirtualAero/BottleRocket/a...

The "wrong" answers all have a bit of truth to them, but aren't the whole picture. As with many complex mathematical models, it is difficult to convert the math into English and maintain precisely the correct meaning.

If people have found an effective way to communicate information, leave them the hell alone. I have too often seen people like Auronis decide to come in and manage something to be proper, and then destroy the communication.

The appropriate thing to do is to find a way to augment, without interfering, the channel to shore up any weaknesses.

Formal channels are often too formal - people don't want to look dumb, or get chastised for asking something incorrectly. Formal channels are intimidating, not welcoming.

The point is knowledge sharing, not "appropriate" knowledge sharing.

I love how the OP was like, "hey, we created this informal channel and communicated valuable info to the whole company", and then Auronis is like, "yeah, don't do that!"

And, as you point out, if you push yourself to read actively, it helps a lot!