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fwungy

758 karma · joined December 16, 2022

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fwungy··on Harvard dishonesty expert accused of dishonesty
It's a make work job for providing political favors, e.g. politician's niece is given an easy job in exchange for future or past favors.
fwungy··on Harvard dishonesty expert accused of dishonesty
Someone once told me that ethicists were often actually psychopaths, that people with a working ethical sensibility were not interested in studying it.

Seems possible.

fwungy··on Former US SEC attorney: 'Get out of crypto platforms now'
A 10x on price would mean a significant shift would be much more expensive, as whales would have to be much bigger to cause a substance movement.

Btc isn't just crypto, its the block chain too. So not only can you pay/collect, but it's publicly available and things like smart contracts are easily possible in an open environment.

So we can do things like say: send x btc to y address if weather.com reports it's 50 degrees in Des Moines on May 8th at 9am, or whatever, all sorts of settlement problems are solved with no middleman who can stop it.

fwungy··on Former US SEC attorney: 'Get out of crypto platforms now'
A double spend attack requires a specific unsafe action by the receiving end of the transaction. As long as the receiver does not accept an unconfirmed transaction they cannot be a victim to it.
fwungy··on Former US SEC attorney: 'Get out of crypto platforms now'
Yes, but the blockchain can be publically audited, unlike the current regime.
fwungy··on Former US SEC attorney: 'Get out of crypto platforms now'
Tether is a problem. It's one of the reasons I would not go all-in on btc, but it's not insurmountable. There are plenty of use cases that do not involve USDT.
fwungy··on Former US SEC attorney: 'Get out of crypto platforms now'
It doesn't need to be dominant. It's such a small sliver right now that it could go 10x and still not be anywhere near dominant.

There are a lot of places where the government is not strong enough to maintain a reliable currency on its own. The USA was the global currency up till now because it was universally trusted, but that's changing. The people who have profited from the international dollar are maneuvering to keep their monopoly.

fwungy··on Former US SEC attorney: 'Get out of crypto platforms now'
In many places Btc is one of the safest ways to store value. The scenarios it could collapse under are dark. It's biggest enemy is soveriegn currency issuers and banks. They would need to attack it such that holders lose faith in it en masse and collapse it. The successful attack they need to make is dystopian in nature. It would require a global digital identity that was attached to all internet access and an alternative (CBDC) crypto that they forced everyone to use.
fwungy··on Former US SEC attorney: 'Get out of crypto platforms now'
There are $5T of foreign exchange transactions per day.

Btc is already getting traction in the developing world as a reliable currency and that is likely to grow under de-dollarization.

The entire crypto market is about $1T right now of which btc is about half.

There is so much space for Btc to grow as an option for international settlement, it's already working and trusted as much or more than many sovereign currencies. As it becomes more trusted it will increase in price which will decrease its volatility.

If Btc just takes a little slice of the FX market it's an easy 5-10x. I wouldn't bet everything on it, but it does seem rational to have a corner of your portfolio in it.

The Feds and the bankers hate it because it's a direct threat to their business model. There's no room for a middle man to fugazi in btc.

fwungy··on 53% of parents say climate change affects their decision to have more kids
You can talk to them. It is not kind to tell children there is no hope.

Tell them there are always problems and we've always solved them. Tell them things are going to be ok. Let them take on the burndens of adulthood when they are psychologically mature.

fwungy··on 53% of parents say climate change affects their decision to have more kids
The Ice Ages are well confirmed scientifically, but not understood.

The dominant climate of the earth is cold. We get relatively brief warm periods, "interglacials", of which we are in one now. Ice ages are theorized to be prompted by shifts in the Earth's orbit[0].

CO2 is measured in hundredths of a percent for impact on the climate. Does it really seem reasonable that our little human technology, an infinitesimal fraction of the energy at work in the Solar System is making a huge difference?

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interglacial

fwungy··on 53% of parents say climate change affects their decision to have more kids
Please consider this. As a parent of a teenager I know a fair number of teenagers are crushed by fears of what climate change will do.

It's a horrific burden, it will crush a child's soul. We can make the environment cleaner with our technology, but changing the weather to prevent climate shifts that occur on a geological time scale and involve a nuclear furnace of a scale beyond our wildest imagination is not within our control.

Teaching your children that all the beauty of the planet is going to die because "people are bad and can't get their shit together" is a completely fucked parenting strategy and a horrible, awful, thing to do to children.

Even if it's true it's much kinder to let them live out this normally happy time of their life in blissful ignorance.

Kindness is what life is about.

fwungy··on 53% of parents say climate change affects their decision to have more kids
Somewhere between 7k-15k years ago there was a massive flood that changed the world. Every culture has stories of this flood in their mythology, e.g. Atlantis, and there is rich geological evidence for it.

What caused this flood?

Scientists theorize there was massive and rapid increase in temperature which quickly melted glaciers from an earlier ice age.

How did that happen? No one knows.

Why are there ice ages and why do they end?

No one knows.

Please do not tell your children their lives are meaningless unless we solve the intractable problem of climate change.

We can make the planet better in terms of clean air. water, and land, but changing weather patterns is orders of magnitude beyond us. We do not and likely never will have the technology to control the behavior of the massive nuclear furnace of the sun.

fwungy··on Toyota Touts Solid State EVs with 932-Mile Range, 10-Minute Charging by 2027
It only needs high pressure for high range. You could build cheaper FCVs that would cover commuter needs like basic BEVs do without high pressure tanks.
fwungy··on Toyota Touts Solid State EVs with 932-Mile Range, 10-Minute Charging by 2027
FCVs are projected to be cheaper than BEVs by all the modeling in the literature.

Going with a lower pressure tank saves money at the cost of reduced range. The problem is booting a hydrogen station network big enough to support a low range FCV (< 200 miles).

But even building expensive carbon fiber high pressure tanks is going to eventually be much cheaper than huge batteries filled with semi-rare minerals that will increase in price as battery market demand increases. We should talk about what peak <Battery Mineral> will mean alongside Peak Oil.

fwungy··on San Francisco's Pain Worsens as Workers, Visitors, and Shoppers Leave
Live in reality.

Enforce rules.

Recognize that some people aren't up to the responsibility level of living certain places and deal with them accordingly, i.e. at a certain level of criminal history you're on timeout or banished. Yeah, that isn't "nice", and if you want the job of rehabilitating the repeat offender because "there's good in everyone", go for it!

But a society must be a place where children can be raised safely and successfully, otherwise there is no society left. Public safety is a foundation of this.

Life sometimes brings us trolley problems where hard decisions must be made. Liberalism is a denial of this, which makes it attractive, but it always ends up being paid for with larger breakdowns as hard decisions aren't made.

fwungy··on Toyota Touts Solid State EVs with 932-Mile Range, 10-Minute Charging by 2027
electrek.co is hardly an objective source.
fwungy··on Toyota Touts Solid State EVs with 932-Mile Range, 10-Minute Charging by 2027
There are billions of people in the developing world, China, India, Africa. Their income is low per capita, but the combined numbers are so high.

Petroleum fuels are easy to store and transport in low infrastructure environments. Many areas don't have strong electric grids, they don't have 24hr electricity, and even if they do it's not reliable. They rely on inexpensive two and three wheeled vehicles extensively, much more than developed nations.

Mobility is needed for them to feed themselves and progress. It isn't a "nice-to-have", it's a necessity for life. This isn't going to change anytime soon.

fwungy··on Toyota Touts Solid State EVs with 932-Mile Range, 10-Minute Charging by 2027
Yes, but the immediate impact on GHGs would be highly delayed from if that battery went into 90 HEVs.
fwungy··on Toyota Touts Solid State EVs with 932-Mile Range, 10-Minute Charging by 2027
Most of the energy for BEVs is produced from fossil fuels as well.

The Gorilla in the Room for fossil fuel emissions is Russia and OPEC. Are Russia and OPEC going to walk away from trillions of dollars of oil wealth?

Are the developing nations, like India, going to walk away from cheap ICE technologies, for more expensive and complex green technologies?

If not, all the aggressive switching by the OECD nations is for naught.

Toyota believes the developing world will still want ICEs for a long time, and the oil nations will still want to sell it.

fwungy··on Toyota Touts Solid State EVs with 932-Mile Range, 10-Minute Charging by 2027
90 HEV = 6 PHEV = 1 BEV, 90:6:1 is Toyota's opinion.

You get way more zero emission VMT using batteries in the HEV and PHEV role. A lot of BEVs are second or third cars for wealthy people who keep some sort of ICE as well. Those cars don't generate lots of VMT so their batteries are effectively being wasted.

fwungy··on Toyota Touts Solid State EVs with 932-Mile Range, 10-Minute Charging by 2027
Bashing != diverse opinion on the future role of BEV's in the vehicle mix.
fwungy··on Our Plan for Python 3.13
The beauty of the GIL was that it made writing good python libraries easy, from the utility perspective. Python is such an amazing multi-tool because of its rich library.

Personally I'd like to see Python continue as the amazing multitool that it is has always been.

Go is the natural concurrency sibling for Python. High performance parts of Python applications should be linked to Go binaries, or simply be written entirely in Go.

Ideally Go linkage would be highly integrated into Python. There is a huge place in the world for GIL constrained Python. Enabling Python to push further into high performance environments is just going to make a problem worse.

fwungy··on First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources
People were blocked from getting ivermectin prescriptions. Doctors were told not to write them. Pharmacies were told not to fill them. There was no conspiracy. It was done completely openly. It was just decided by "the scientists" and effectively banned from the mainline medical system. Any doctor working in a network healthcare system (most of them) was basically told they could not prescribe it.

Given it's long history and safety, why was this necessary? Much is learned in medicine by practitioners trying things and sharing their results amongst each other.

fwungy··on Before he was the Unabomber, Ted Kaczynski was a mind-control test subject
Thank God the good guys won all the wars.

-Norm McDonald

fwungy··on Ted Kaczynski has died
K. made the rational observation that no one would pay attention to him unless he did something drastic to force it. He'd just be a forgotten loner who scribbled in notebooks.

A politician might kill or harm many more people in the course of pursuing their objectives but they'll always have the story on their side provided they win.

K. had to understand that the achievement of his objective, publishing the manifesto, would likely lead to his capture, but he did it anyway. He sacrificed himself in the end.

If you believed you had information that would save the planet but you had to kill some innocent people to make it known? Utilitarians would say yes because saving billions of innocent lives is more important.

K. probably saw himself as someone taking revenge on an evil system that had harmed him. He's one of the more fascinating characters of modern history in that he was so effective in attaining his goals with violence.

fwungy··on Ask HN: Is it time to resurrect a Usenet clone?
Non-delete can be a feature.

Users would have to operate on the older model of usenet - if you can't handle the heat don't go, or the node operator could simply ban the account.

fwungy··on Ask HN: Is it time to resurrect a Usenet clone?
The messages would be on a block chain. The crypto would fund the node provider.
fwungy··on Ask HN: Is it time to resurrect a Usenet clone?
What about a crypto token based use net where every message would cost a small token fee that would be credited to the node operator?

This would give an incentive to run a node and would serve as a hurdle to the unwashed masses.

fwungy··on Taurine deficiency as a driver of aging
If you take Essential Amino Acids your body will make whichever aminos it needs most.

You can target supplement something, but it might not be the most critical link at the moment.

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