HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

fspeech

2,715 karma · joined January 14, 2013

submissionscomments
fspeech··on Three astronauts are stuck on China's space station without a safe ride home
A human rated vehicle would be much more expensive than one rated for cargo. And there are not many use cases for the vehicle other than rescue missions to the two space stations.
fspeech··on Tesla gets 14 times more labor productivity per dollar in China than the U.S.
Whatever the reason California averages $4000 in labor cost per Tesla vs less than $300 in Shanghai. That's quite a difference.
fspeech··on Kimi K2 Thinking, a SOTA open-source trillion-parameter reasoning model
It uses 75% linear attention layers so it is inherently lower cost. And it is MOE so active parameters are far lower.
fspeech··on Kimi K2 Thinking, a SOTA open-source trillion-parameter reasoning model
There is also Minimax M2 https://huggingface.co/MiniMaxAI/MiniMax-M2
fspeech··on Karpathy on DeepSeek-OCR paper: Are pixels better inputs to LLMs than text?
If you can read your input on your screen your computer apparently knows how to convert your texts to images.
fspeech··on Fall in China's exports of rare earth magnets stokes supply chain fears
APEC meeting in South Korea is coming up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APEC_South_Korea_2025
fspeech··on Alibaba Cloud says it cut Nvidia AI GPU use by 82% with new pooling system
They didn't keep the foreign corporations out. Having them as on-shore competitors is what keeps their own companies from merely seeking rents. Foreign companies also didn't bring their best products in the beginning out of the fear of getting copied, but that strategy is not sustainable over time as Chinese companies get better at making things.
fspeech··on DeepSeek OCR
Google is closer. This is from a famous essay expressing tbe author's desire to bear the burden for the world. Essay is 岳阳楼记 by 范仲淹 in year 1046 https://zh.wikisource.org/zh-hans/%E5%B2%B3%E9%99%BD%E6%A8%9...
fspeech··on Bessent: Struggling China wants 'to pull everybody else down with them'
Some of these should be music chairs: factories that export to Europe from Southeast Asia would ship to US instead and Chinese factories then ship to Europe.
fspeech··on America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom
I think you over estimate the control and under estimate the need for flexibility for any society to operate. Let's just say even in China, identity can be a commodity. For example scammers are known to buy bank accounts by paying poor people in remote areas. The system needs flexibility otherwise a majority of people will run into problems all the time.
fspeech··on China's New Rare Earth and Magnet Restrictions Threaten US Defense Supply Chains
Why is it harder to supply people with vitamins than to supply them with seeds that require advanced engineering? Will the golden rice stay golden without careful breeding? Someone is cynical here.
fspeech··on Ask HN: Great Firewall in Iran?
Do you know that Chinese GFW only applies to domestic numbers and services? If you have an out of country number and roaming it doesn't apply to you. I don't know anything about Iran though.
fspeech··on Xi Jinping's Successor and the Future of China
American analyses of Chinese political machinations are almost always entertainingly off the mark because they are really superficial position papers to appease the funding agencies, whether they raise the alarm or preach calm.
fspeech··on OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss
Chats have contexts. While search engines try to track you it is spookier because it is unclear to the user how the contexts are formed. In chats at least the contexts are transparent to both the provider and the user.
fspeech··on Made in China 2025 Improved Robot Quality. Core Components Still Come from Japan
In the beginning of course everyone wants to use mature components unless it is something you can differentiate yourself with. Once there are clear winners on the system side the winners will want to control critical supplies as well.
fspeech··on China's 200M gig workers are a warning for the world
Your arguments are not supported by what is actually happening. They just rolled out child payments and I support that. Pensions grew very fast for 体制内 people and there is scant evidence that stimulates spending other than burdening local finances. 大病保险 reimbursement rate is also up a lot while office visit costs are kept very low and while I think that is good there's little evidence that it stimulates consumption. Your attack on my analysis as annecdotes is ridiculous. For one to induce change one needs differential data to get the derivatives on proposed changes and your citation of national bulk statistics at a point does nothing of that sort. Secondly on the ground experience can provide directions that inform experimentations. Government finance is tight. You don't want to get another 100% GDP in debt with little to show (as in Japan). Thirdly this is not an academic forum and I am not an expert. If you feel like you are one you can write papers on your ideas. Attacking me isn't going to achieve anything.
fspeech··on China's 200M gig workers are a warning for the world
China's median age is now 40. 20 years ago the college enrollment and urbanization rates were much lower. That's why the numbers alone don't tell the whole story for a fast changing economy like China's. You need to look at disaggregated numbers if you want to make predictions.

Also the number you quoted lumped housing together with other costs. China has very high home ownership and home prices are very elevated. Much public services and transport infrastructure builds are funded through government land sales and therefore through home sales. That could also skew the data.

Another problem with the national median data is the great variations in development levels and therefore cost of livings across geographic regions.

It's not easy to change the spending habits of the older adults. Consumption is also work. It's about increasing utility, not just spending. Consider the time after the Fukushima when misinformed consumers hoarded salt. It would be hard to argue that consumption increased utility. You want consumers to be informed, you want spending to discriminate against incompetent manufacturers and bad services. If older adults get more utility from watching their bank accounts grow than doing the work to consume without regrets, just shoveling more money indiscriminately isn't going to stimulate consumption much.

fspeech··on China's 200M gig workers are a warning for the world
Consumption habit is much more dependent on personal experience and has little to do with the safety net. Older retired people with state pensions still have little desire to spend or don't even know how to spend in the new online economy, while young people who never experienced hardship are happy to spend every penny. If you want to increase spending you need to steer income to young people (child credit e.g.). Healthcare is mostly accessed by old folks. Generous pension and healthcare benefits are not going to lift spending.
fspeech··on China's 200M gig workers are a warning for the world
They do provide a safety net but you have to move into the cities. They can't afford to build a comparable one for the rural areas too as rural productivity is too low and they can't realistically induce skilled people to move into impoverished rural areas.
fspeech··on DeepSeek says its hit AI model cost just $294k to train
These numbers were easily supported by those who attempted to replicate the RL portion of their work. The foundational model training is harder to verify but is also not central to the paper.
fspeech··on A new theory of China's rise: rule by engineers
Sorry I have to say that the cited writeup is disappointingly shallow. For example it doesn't explain why other countries with equal or better access to the Western markets didn't all industrialize, so globalization may be necessary but is clearly not sufficient. Also its narrative on Chinese agriculture ignores the fact that Chinese agriculture also developed rapidly both in production and in value of output. It became the largest importer of food because the consumption of protein skyrocketed outpacing almost every other country.
fspeech··on Dinosaur eggs from China found to be around 86M years old
Look up radioisotope dating, for example https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiometric_dating

Basically when a rock solidifies from lava or a lifeform dies they cease to exchange materials with their environment and the concentration of unstable isotopes will decay and deviate from that of the environment. The difference can be used to date how long the exchange has stopped.

fspeech··on China's carmakers are heading for a crash
When their EV transition is complete most of the old gas car lines will be obsoleted. As these are not the same owners and the EV factories are trying to accelerate the ICE carmakers' demise, it doesn't make sense to add the two capacities together. Interestingly the ICE makers are mostly JVs between foreign brands and Chinese SOEs, so the process of driving out the foreign brands also hurts the big SOEs.
fspeech··on China sends an AI to its space station
I think they are recruited to be relatively uniform in physical size in the first place: 160-175cm according to the internet.
fspeech··on GPT-OSS vs. Qwen3 and a detailed look how things evolved since GPT-2
On the open source library part, you can ask DeepWiki the questions yourself and feed the answers to the LLMs by hand. DeepWiki gives you high quality answers because they are grounded in code and you can check the veracity yourself.
fspeech··on Let's properly analyze an AI article for once
Unfortunately the writer's own understanding of statistics is flawed. For example sample size has not much to do with population size but a lot to do with effect size. For example to demonstrate that a chemical is fatal often a sample size of 1 is sufficient. Population comes into play if there is a large variance of the effect relative to the average size of the effect. You need a good statistical sampling of the population to study the variance but even here sample size if not determined by population size.
fspeech··on AI capex is so big that it's affecting economic statistics
Interests you pay is not necessarily all financial services revenue. Only the net interests the industry receives count as revenue. There's a lot of netting going on in finance.
fspeech··on AI capex is so big that it's affecting economic statistics
Yes but it is the overhead. Higher overhead doesn't suggest efficiency.
fspeech··on "Watershed moment:" Big battery storage prices hit record low in China auction
Fire risk would be a concern for homes in denser areas.
fspeech··on Visualizing China's Real Estate Market Downturn
It pinches spending but insolvency is rare.
← PreviousPage 2 of 34Next →