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firebones

1,328 karma · joined March 18, 2010

firebones@firebones.com
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firebones··on Tesla’s promises don’t compute with current physics and economics of batteries
Good point, I guess, although I was responding to the parent's post that cited meatworld-based regulations as a compensatory excuse for the need for frequent recharging.

Sure, many electric and autonomous vehicle problems go away if we "simply" re-engineer millions of miles of roads and infrastructure in the country. Now you've got two problems.

firebones··on Tesla’s promises don’t compute with current physics and economics of batteries
The regulatory info only gives information on the way things should be with regard to how truckers and the interstate highway system works, but I would suggest that before you invest on this hypothesis, talk to some truckers earning $0.50 per mile. And look at where semis actually park when they're taking their 30 minute and 11 hour breaks, before deciding how fast this transition will occur and how much infrastructure will have to be in place along the major cross country interstates like I-70, I-80, I-35, etc., before a trucking company or an independent trucker decides to go all in on electric.

(I don't know the answer, but I strongly suspect that regulations are not going to be the driver of the adoption of this tech. Short haul or "hot shot" could be better suited for electric and autonomous. Show me some progress there first and I will buy into some actual disruption. If you want a research assignment, take to the interstate back and forth across a couple of flyover states and stop and see where the trucks actually are.)

firebones··on Burn the Programmer
My world was opened up when in my college Computer Architecture class I learned the relationship between microcode and an instruction set. It gave me confidence. The final in that class had a question on it where I had to apply the general principles I learned to draw a new conclusion--the first time I'd ever taken a test where the test itself actually taught me something I hadn't fully internalized or learned before. What a feeling--it was like magic.
firebones··on Human sperm steer with second harmonics of the flagellar beat
Let's start a band...that title could describe a new musical genre, one with the hip lyrics set to the flagellar beat.
firebones··on Nineteen people a week overdose in Richmond, dozens are dying, hundreds revived
I wish regulators could be perfect, and if they were, we'd reduce harm a lot. But since we know they're not, we can, as participants in society, be as Caesar's wife--above suspicion--and avoid these situations entirely.

A lot of capitalism's woes would be overcome should that standard be applied.

firebones··on Nineteen people a week overdose in Richmond, dozens are dying, hundreds revived
While it is factually true that it would be illegal for Purdue to promote off-label, they also need to be held accountable for playing fast and loose with the research studies (even altering the definitions used in the trials) in order to be able to claim 12h coverage when nearly half the patients weren't getting 12h coverage. This, combined with the recommendation to push higher doses to achieve 12h coverage, combined with the gap in coverage, drove a lot of people into a cycle of unhealthy and deadly dependency.

At the very least it's a case of consumer product safety liability and negligence fueled by profit motive.

firebones··on Robert Scoble and Me
There is at least one more name that could fit that description, depending on the breadth of your definition of creator. Regardless, oblique references serve the purpose of allowing victims to triangulate over space and time and connect with lower risk of having to go out on a limb alone, or to send a message in a bottle to other victims who might have been suffering thinking they were the only one, or thinking that they were going crazy.
firebones··on 'Our minds can be hijacked': tech insiders who fear a smartphone dystopia
How many wikipedia articles have you read on your smartphone vs. ones you've read on your laptop/desktop?

"In your pocket" represents a world of difference.

firebones··on Ikea has bought TaskRabbit
What was it that TaskRabbit had that Zaarly didn't? It seems like a pretty obvious gap for Zaarly to fill to get lined up as bait now that they know that there's a market for acquisition. Did Zaarly focus too much on the ServiceMaster space and not enough on the "white glove" some-assembly-required space that a retailer like Amazon might be interested in?
firebones··on To Understand Rising Inequality, Consider Janitors
Not 100% sure that I understand your point about silver. Is it that you believe it has retained its buying power? (Setting aside that the silver in a pre-1964 quarter could only buy about 36 ounces of milk in 1970 given the $1.15/gal retail price then.)

Let's say that on Jan 1, 1970, you took your pre-1964 quarter and pulled out the 6.25 grams of silver in at the price of $12.37 a troy ounce. You'd get $2.48.

If you put that $2.48 in a money market earning just half the fed discount rate for the last 47 years, it'd be worth $7.99 today. The silver would be worth $3.37. (The currency would likely be a lot more that $7.99, because the difference between money market rates and fed discount rate historically hasn't been as high as the very conservative 50% markdown I used here.)

There are a lot of moving parts in an economy that affect cost of living. A lot of stuff has changed since 1970 beyond going off the gold standard. Massive productivity changes, energy and raw material price shocks, demographic changes, policies and laws changing behaviors all across the individual and business landscape. It's difficult to isolate one individual factor as the sole cause.

firebones··on ESPN Football Analyst Walks Away, Disturbed by Brain Trauma on Field
You make great points. All sports are likely at their peak for performance at the highest levels. The difference may be one of whether you prefer "peak specialization" (football, baseball), or "peak dynamic creativity" (basketball, soccer.) I guess throw in "individual performance" if you want to consider golf, track, etc.

Not to say there isn't creativity in football or baseball, just that those are far more defined by organizational strategy than they are by moment-to-moment creativity by players in the game.

firebones··on ESPN Football Analyst Walks Away, Disturbed by Brain Trauma on Field
There's also suspicion, if I recall correctly, that the routine repetitions of linemen taking knocks to the head in practice does more long term damage than what we see on game day. This may be more pronounced in high schools and to a lesser extent, college, where the coaching can be more suspect.
firebones··on Announcing Rust 1.20
May be too late in this thread for a response, but does the completion of the 1.20 release free up some time for the "State of Rust 2017" survey results blog post before the 1.21 release? I know there was a huge response, and you don't want to step on the release news, but I'm waiting to see where the user community stands.
firebones··on Announcing Rust 1.20
Are there any stats yet on improvements in memory safety within Firefox attributable to Rust. In theory, it could be as much as 50% fewer based on the original premise of Rust removing whole classes of programmer errors, but are there stats from Rust being in the wild? The CSS replacement reminded me that there should be something to compare.
firebones··on Insane state of today's advertising part 3
Advertisers should have a centralized reporting service that pays bounties for submitting violators. Is fraud worth enough to support a whitehat community exposing the ad equivalent of "vulnerabilities?"
firebones··on Insane state of today's advertising part 3
Core War, only for adtech. Let the games begin.
firebones··on Andrew Ng is raising a $150M AI Fund
Did anyone do "intuition"?
firebones··on Tesla raises $1.8B
ITT: people who don't live in areas that routinely get hail and periodic roof replacements.
firebones··on Tesla raises $1.8B
From Twitter:

Chris Moore‏ @ctmoore91 Aug 10 More Quick math on $SNAP marketing numbers: - $3.60 per existing user - $89 per acquired user to make revenue of $1.05 per user in... 3 months

firebones··on Biggest Amateur-Built Sub Sinks--Owner Suspected of Murder
Suspected victim is a Wired freelancer.
firebones··on Arrest of WannaCry researcher sends chill through security community
Well, to be honest, both spies in Spy vs Spy were equally nefarious, taking turns in their ups and downs, but deploying identical methods. I always thought it referred more to movie Westerns, where blackhats were consistently the villains, and the whitehat was the studio star who saved the day.
firebones··on Lindy effect
I teach the Boston "Big Dig" as it ties the Lindy Effect to schedule estimation. Fred Brooks was knocking on the door of this with the Mythical Man Month: adding developers to a late project only makes it later. But Lindy Effect would say that late projects in and of themselves make themselves later.

Same difference, I guess.

firebones··on Lindy effect
Weilbull distribution [1]. Why we used to run our mail-order PCs non-stop for a week to burn them in. If there were faulty components, we wanted them to fail under the 30-day return policy.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weibull_distribution

firebones··on Lindy effect
I teach this as part of an internal developer class; one important thing to note is that it applies to certain classes of non-perishable items. Not the books themselves, but the ideas the books contain. We talk about how things like the presentation framework du jour (e.g., many Javascript frameworks) change rapidly, while tech deeper in the stack turns over less frequently (middleware, operating systems, etc.) And we ask about why some tech survives.

The lesson here is that things that last have developed certain adaptations to make them last. It's always worth studying why some oft-repudiated or outdated tech won't die; it is almost always because it possesses some key attribute present that is essential. If you're proposing a new framework, or promoting a new idea, it is essential you understand why these crufty old incumbents are still around, and see whether your new framework or idea embodies those old adaptations.

I've learned a lot about how flashy surface features (which compete well against new tech at the surface level) can be inferior to tech that embodies what the incumbents did well.

firebones··on 153k Ether Stolen in Parity Multi-Sig Attack
Reminds me of the Winston Churchill story:

“Churchill: "Madam, would you sleep with me for five million pounds?" Socialite: "My goodness, Mr. Churchill... Well, I suppose... we would have to discuss terms, of course... "

Churchill: "Would you sleep with me for five pounds?"

Socialite: "Mr. Churchill, what kind of woman do you think I am?!"

Churchill: "Madam, we've already established that. Now we are haggling about the price.”

We've already established that they will fork. Now we are haggling about the price.

[1] http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/300099-churchill-madam-would...

firebones··on 153k Ether Stolen in Parity Multi-Sig Attack
Read the Solidity documentation on visibility [1]. Public, private, internal, external, that really seem to mix overlapping concerns. In the visibility documentation, it explains that the default is public.

Then, in another section of the documentation, when talking about function types [2], not specifying internal or external defaults visibility to internal.

It doesn't seem like the simplest or most consistent way to express these concepts, and certainly not the safest way.

[1] http://solidity.readthedocs.io/en/develop/contracts.html#vis... [2] http://solidity.readthedocs.io/en/develop/types.html#functio...

firebones··on Response to “Unexpected mutations after CRISPR-Cas9 editing in vivo”
Of all the stupidity and hype around blockchain tech, the idea of committing the hypothesis of your research to an immutable record beforehand so as to avoid p-hacking seems to be one of the best ideas I've heard, provided you could avoid the problem of people simply committing a tournament of alternative answers...
firebones··on Silicon Valley Women, in Cultural Shift, Frankly Describe Sexual Harassment
I can't find anything other than that he awkwardly asked her out (after dating a number of Microsoft employees). Most of the recent stories read like sanitized rewrites of history.

But I did find this somewhat interesting 1995 history of the lengths they went to in order to protect their privacy:

http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=199...

firebones··on How a 20-year-old kernel feature helped USDS improve VA’s network
The Jiffies root cause leads to an interesting idea: an Glossary of Magic Constants where all kinds of important constants, limits, and overflows are tracked to aid in debugging. You could imagine a search engine where "tcp connection drops after 5 minutes" lists every piece of software and firmware with 5 minute and 300 second constants.
firebones··on Rich Retirees Are Hoarding Cash Out of Fear
The point is that his surviving wife wouldn't have to scrape by on social security, and that he wouldn't have had to have burned through his entire nest egg even if he was buying a house, cars, and spending $100K/yr + 12 years of medical expenses and long-term care.

But that's moot--the edit I made was because the $22M was based on a chronology problem in the original post. The ten year difference in retirement date from 1988 to 1998 is a much better explanation of the facts, and fits the OP's premise better.

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