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fhsm

150 karma · joined November 15, 2016

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fhsm··on T-Mobile introduce fines from Jan 1 for "Code of Conduct" violations
Sounds exactly like fine as price in the making.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=180117

fhsm··on Kids with cats have double the risk of developing schizophrenia
The article subtitle is a "A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis".

Many good refs define both but [1] is free. As far as how you might think of them [2,3] give context. The exact extent of merit can be debated but these do have merit.

[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5903119/ [2] https://ebm.bmj.com/content/21/4/125 [3] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/1895230

fhsm··on The shrinking number of primary care physicians is reaching a tipping point
Dermatology is playing on a different level now: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6659155/
fhsm··on The shrinking number of primary care physicians is reaching a tipping point
The following document seems to be the definitive source, supports the larger point of speciality dependent results, and was my first google result: https://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Advance-Data...
fhsm··on West Point discovers time capsule from 1828
“+” is doing a lot of work there… https://www.nature.com/articles/nature22335
fhsm··on Why do cloud providers keep building datacenters in Phoenix?
And has a lot of sunny days - whether falling in your crop or your panels.
fhsm··on USGS estimates at least 45% of U.S. tap water contain forever chemicals
Thanks. For any others the ref is https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.6257
fhsm··on 32“ E Ink screen that displays daily newspapers on your wall (2021)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fountain_(Duchamp)
fhsm··on USGS estimates at least 45% of U.S. tap water contain forever chemicals
That’s interesting. I’m having a hard time turning up the article. Any chance you’ve got at your fingertips?
fhsm··on Reddit Strike Has Started
When this happened my thoughts also turned to Aaron. I had not thought about him in some time. It made me sad note that, to think of where we and of all we have done without and why that is so.

Context for those who missed it:

http://www.aaronsw.com/weblog/rewritingreddit

https://www.wbur.org/news/2013/02/20/carmen-ortiz-investigat...

I think of Sci-hub and Alexandra are the continuation of Aarons fatal push:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandra_Elbakyan

Ongoing attention on the circumstances:

https://theintercept.com/2021/02/15/marty-walsh-aaron-swartz...

fhsm··on Study finds female astronauts more efficient
I don’t know of anyone who contests the existence of publication bias / desk drawer bias - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Publication_bias

The solution - to the extent one exists - is pre registration. I see no evidence that this study was pre registered and thus the usual assumption that it has no meaningful protection from publication bias applies.

Here’s one of the very well known reports of potential impact in a well studied area (fda approval): https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmsa065779

fhsm··on Judge decides against Internet Archive
I am similar unclear on where this supposed bright line sites but to try and steal man your argument a bit is it possible you looking for the distinction between excludable and rivalrous goods?
fhsm··on Staff, reportedly under threat of firing, break Twitter for Musk
He is a record setter… https://www.npr.org/2023/01/12/1148634966/elon-musk-guinness...
fhsm··on Realistic computer-generated handwriting
Do you own a 5 year old Subaru? The universe thinks I own a 2011 Dodge Durango. Never owned a 2011. Never owned a Dodge. Nevertheless I get about one junk mailing a week asserting that I do. All are addressed to the same esoteric spelling of my given name (that I do not use) and my actual correctly spelled family name.
fhsm··on A once respected biology journal indicts evolutionary biology for ableism
Isn’t that exact cycle the current norm…

E.g., https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1937-00266-001

The sign is changed to escape folk connotations but in time reality asserts itself the signed subsumes the new sign and the cycle repeats.

fhsm··on Should I step down as head of Twitter? I will abide by the results of this poll
http://ambien.blogspot.com/2010/12/ambien-walrus-collection....

The walrus has branched out.

fhsm··on Open-source hospital price transparency
caveat emptor: rando on the Internet...

TL;DR: consumption of healthcare on a gold plated health plan meant that my total comp was more than I've ever gotten in salary on the FAANG RSU train and whereas its easy to talk about RSUs its hard to talk about 'golden EOBs'.

The eye opening has roughly two versions all of which you can see in a peer group when babies start landing:

1. The tail event

Lets say you're a SWE making $500k/yr then you have a child and run up a $2m NICU bill and then a $2m cochlear implant bill after that... most people look at your $500k in 'salary' (base + bonus + stock) and say 'wow you're well paid' in reality what they should look at is your $5 copay and $1k total annual and say 'wow you're well paid' (an extra $1,999k in consumption enabled by your work). Remember it's even more extreme than raw numbers b/c your $1m in wages over these two consumption events gets squeezed through an income tax that (in CA) is ~50% vs. your employer sponsored plan paying the $4m in bills (granted crazy hospital Monopoly dollars) without that tax drag.

2. The ordinary frustration

boplicity and I consumed the same service (OB ER triage) and boplicity ended up unhappy to be out 'multi thousand dollars' in user fees whereas I was happy to be out $5. When a peer groups starts having children this first - for many - substantial engagement with the healthcare system shows just how different 'good' employer sponsored plans are. In my peer group share of cost, network of options, extent of benefits were all meaningfully different even among prestige employer plans. The fear of infinity $ as an upper limit paired with the loss of agency involved in infirmity causes a lot of consternation about the money and choice. It's hard to price the absence of that worry and feeling you got the short straw in the relative buying power game devalues your prestige employment.

For my part, I felt fortunate to be on a plan that exposed me to ~zero financial risk or sense of network loss during a healthcare consumption event. This was not always so. As a healthy single 25 y/o with that first package I ignored 'fringe.' It didn't even make the xls doc from the HR people a free gym you use with your boss's boss is hard to price anyway. Now having worked through the GFC / COVID & consumed some healthcare the RSUs are harder to budget and health insurance reads like a deranged lottery ticket that could asymptotically approach 100% of total comp.

Finally, whether any of this 'ought' to be is a separate question. As a practical matter, today, it is so - my employer can buy things I cannot and can do so with dollars I cannot match 1:1. Sometimes I value them and sometimes I do not. If the person sitting next to me values these more than I do then I am are being under compensated. If HR tried to close that gab with salary we'd have pay equity problem. As such, I believe the present tax / insurance system means we can have any two of diversity of employee preference, pay equity, comp equity (in theory ... in practice it seems we can have zero of three).

Anyway, hopefully that clarifies my thinking a bit. As I said, wouldn't put much weight on it.

fhsm··on Open-source hospital price transparency
It never crossed my mind that OB ERs would be seen as fraud instead of specialized care for readily identified special populations. I guess this is a major case of YMMV but with three* lifetime trips to an emergency room under my belt I think the separate OB ER is a fantastic idea. The OB ER provided rapid definitive care vs the regular adult ED which was a hellscape.

*the third trip, like you, was passing through the OB ER on the way to delivery and I’d never count it normally… then again unlike you my total cost out of pocket was $5. The financial experience of childbirth has been one of the most useful tools in reframing my understanding of total comp as something very different than salary.

fhsm··on Things I've noticed while visiting the ICU
Healthcare is mighty complex. The "why don't you just _____" or "the problem is _____" impulse among all who touch it is strong and typically well intended. Eventually it will even be right.

For the many who have shown the impulse here, a bit of context: Apple global revenue in 2020 was 274B[0] and US healthcare spend was $4T[1]. If you can capture just 6% of just the US you've got an Apple sized (in one sense) operation. Six percent isn't so big, Google is at 90%[2]. Little old United Airlines picks up twice that 6% target for 13% share[3]. If you pulled in 13% of US healthcare you'd have a Walmart sized operation[4].

Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft have made a multiple runs at it. Maybe Apple Watch and PillPack count as successes, maybe.

The world is waiting for, dying for, someone who actually knows _____.

[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/265125/total-net-sales-o...

[1] https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Sta...

[2] https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share/all/un...

[3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/250577/domestic-market-s...

[4] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/WMT/walmart/revenu...

(obviously the math is approximate, the sourcing iffy, and the comparisons flaky ... particularly Walmart which is a big player in healthcare so is getting double counted).

fhsm··on FTX’s balance sheet was bad
I hope the years ahead and the investigations that fill them produce a picture of a cartoonish mustache twirling villain. It would, as you’ve pointed out, make it so easy to understand. I expect something more nuanced and layered filled with self deception and good intentions might emerge. The sort of thing which reminds us that risk is not just that if gleefully explored possibility but also the sort of risk to be managed and mitigated … a dull retrograde conservatism rendered gauche by decades of SV VC survivorship bias. Time may tell.
fhsm··on Michael Lewis' next book is about Sam Bankman-Fried
Liar’s Poker wasn’t exactly a glowing review and drew on first hand experience. I think deep embed doesn’t necessarily mean puff. Getting in with Gladwell isn’t a great sign but particularly now that the outcome is established I’d have been open to the idea of it being a good book.
fhsm··on Physicians’ attitudes about caring for people with disabilities
This is true but really doesn’t capture much of the truth. As a first approximation you can split spaces into licensed and unlicensed spaces. The former are the conventional purview of “private practice”. The latter are the typical purview of “hospitals”. These are in quotes because this is merely a correlation and neither concept has a strict definition. Critically without domain knowledge it’s unlikely you’d be able to tell which a “doctors office” is.

An unlicensed space is a business with all the usual obligations and the doctor is a doctor with all the usual obligations. When you move to the practice of medicine to a “hospital” (again as a licensing and finance idea which is separable from a sort of basic idea of building X) all that comes along but now with an additional regulatory overlay.

Big picture this doesn’t change much about the Ada except to say that many medical practices are happening in spaces where the Ada is just the beginning.

fhsm··on Alphabet Earnings Report Q3 2022 [pdf]
Interesting. I didn’t know this was settled. Have a good reference on the relative attributions? Mostly curious about methodology for doing so.
fhsm··on The Mysterious Patient in Room 23: The Hermit Baroness
It seems you’ve responded to a refusal to subscribe with an argument for willingness to pay. It is possible to be open to payment and not to subscription.

HN is filled with people bemoaning subscription software. Subscriptions, whether to software or news, shift power toward sellers and invite dark patterns for its abuse.

That abuse is well enough recognized to be the subject of an often celebrated (on HN) CA law attempting to make subscription less odious.

https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtm...

Can’t speak for parent but I’d be slow to conflate unwillingness to subscribe and unwillingness to pay.

fhsm··on Nearly Half of San Franciscans Have Been Victims of Theft, New Poll Says
https://www.chicagomag.com/chicago-magazine/chicago-crime-st...

The best documentation of this I know of is from Chicago about 10 years ago. The above was the first article by the journalist I associate with it.

fhsm··on Ask HN: Have you ever heard of users demonstrating against software?
Exactly. The checklist has no endogenous enforcement capacity. The software defined world is wholly different.

“In a fully developed bureaucracy there is nobody left with whom one could argue, to whom one could present grievances, on whom the pressures of power could be exerted. Bureaucracy is the form of government in which everybody is deprived of political freedom, of the power to act; for the rule by Nobody is not no-rule, and where all are equally powerless we have a tyranny without a tyrant.”

Hannah Arendt

fhsm··on Random walk in 2 lines of J
It sounds like we do similar sorts of things (based on tool list) but each time I poke at an APL like system I back away clear on learning curve and unclear on value.

At core, my job is arithmetic on 3D arrays of approx 10x1000x100,000,000.

The rub is that for every LOC of written manipulating those structures I’ve got 100 LOCs doing IO (broadly defined) and then 1,000-10,000 doing some form of ETL, QC, normalization (I.e. find and validate the correctness of the magic numbers that go in the cells of the big array).

Do you think J/APL would be of any use to me and if so where in your similar projects’ life cycle does it crop up?

fhsm··on How to succeed at Meta
Self destructing measurement:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

All else equal, easy to capture proxies make good metrics; however, the point is that all else will not be equal.

Also, the CYAed version of web of trust is a “360 review”. Going all in on 360s is a good way to unleashing reality tv dynamics in a previously banal workplace.

fhsm··on Lufthansa has not banned AirTags
As you’ve expressed interest… it seems to me that the nonsense word irregardless (which has become so prevalent as to have a understandable folk sense) arose as a portmanteau of irrespective and regardless. Both are useful words to know.

Perhaps the extent to which one cares about the nonsensical composition of the word irregardless speaks to the same latent disposition that drive preferences among type systems.

Whether “it works but is wrong” is nonsensical is debatable. My grandfather had a llama who duck typed his sexual partners. He was not, in a Darwinian sense, a successful animal but was beloved for his easy going disposition.

Anyway, word are fun.

fhsm··on Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months
https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
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