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I just recently got into Steve Howe. He's considered one of, if not the best guitarist of all time and I came across a quote he had that said something like he wished guitarists would focus on being musicians. Same thing as coders to engineers.

I've come across more technically able programmers than I am. But they aren't better engineers. And a lot of that is because I'm an entrepreneur and have a marketing secondary background as well.

So many companies discount non coding skillsets that actually make one an engineer in my opinion.

They hire the butcher instead of the chef and then wonder why it tastes like shit when it's cooked.

Not much longer when interest rate payments are well on their way to $1T per year ($659 billion as of October), the bulk of the budget (66%) is non-discretionary and unfunded liabilities are $211T.

Oldest story ever told though. Someone finds something of value and doesn't protect their basket. Others take it or pressure them out.

And outside of that - Florida is a state with no state income tax. Texans whines about Californians all the time too. And Colorado whines about Californians and now Texans moving there.

And Californians whine about foreign investors or corporations or state income tax.

You can't have it all.

I had a guy overhear me talking about when I ate iguana in Curacao and then ranted to me and my group about how it wasn't right and that they are endangered. And I'm like that's not true at all but anyway, what do you eat buddy? He's like "I only eat chicken" like he's some sort of meat purist in that statement.

Some randos on the plane can be good convo. Met some interesting and nice people on the craps tables, conferences, festivals, fellow or opposing fans at sports events. When I travel, I usually end up collecting strangers as part of the experience.

But yeah out and about they're often sketchy. If they're painful to me, I'll lean into it and try to figure out how they got there and you can often pull some interesting or ridiculous stories (ex: alien encounters)

Except when you are ordering great food. It's all about whether there is added value or not with tech or humans.

I was locked out of my car last weekend so I used the app to summon AAA. Super smooth process.

The tow driver called me to confirm he was on way and location. I saw that he had arrived in a normal pickup truck so I told my buddy that I was going to mess with him.

I walked up to him and said "how are you going to tow my car with that thing?!?!!" And he paused and then said... "I thought it was a lockout?" with a confused look

I said "ahhhhhhhh got ya! I'm just messing with ya" and we both shared a good laugh. We chatted a little while he used his airbag and tool to unlock it which took about 30 seconds. I told him thanks and and gave him a $10 tip which he appreciated.

My great uncle once told me - "never let a day go by without messing with someone". I try to remember that and do it when I can as it breaks up my day and often others to just laugh.

The art of the bullshit and messing with people and just laughing died a long time ago. People got used to not engaging with strangers and it's not really scary. You don't have to have a long exchange. Or an awkward one. You can mess with people, thank them for what they are doing or share a laugh or compliment.

I'd consider myself a hybrid introvert/extrovert. I find that if I don't engage regularly with new business calls or with strangers I'm off my game when I do and I'm less likely to do it. And I find that if I do engage it's rewarding.

I'm a non-believer. Counter arguments:

1) Not 55% from your article. Youngest boomer is 59. That's about middle of the 55-64. So split the difference, it's 43.8%. Millenials are larger than boomers. Gen X is larger than Silent generation. If your thesis of them not being able to buy when they die off is correct, well, see #2 and #4 below.

2) People that inherit don't have to sell. Many will simply rent as it could be tax advantageous. Or they move in.

3) Construction costs (labor, materials) will inflate minimizing new supply.

4) The Fed has no choice but to bring rates back down and keep printing. National debt is $33T which is crazy but unfunded liabilities are 211T! We're well on our way to paying 1T in annual interest. 65% of spending is mandatory. Debt historically % of GDP is 46.9%. End of 2022 - 97%. [1]. Interest rates cannot remain historically elevated and the only way out of the debt load is to print print print. This helps assets and affordability (debt service) for investors and the genx, millenials to acquire. The US and world got drunk off a cheap dollar.

So I disagree on the macro of your thesis. Certainly some areas will be affected though with boomer/silent passings but that will be due to a demographic change in demand, gen x and younger not desiring those areas for numerous reasons.

I'll be holding assets as inflation continues, and probably rips again in the near future. It will be traditional inflation (actual economy) or inflation in the financial economy (stocks, assets). One or both have to rip from inflation. There's no way out of the debt load.

[1] https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58888

Ah yes! So APC was more like an RNS then. I recall now after looking up some of your groups' releases too. APC was the next best group as far as releases to RNS. I probably have a ton of those NFO files from back in the day and the courier mp3 rankings for EU and US. I was #1 US and top 5 Europe once. EU was quite hard due to competition and latency, although a uni shell account certainly helped. :)

Most were current year only US releases, 192kbps and VBR?. Some accepted 320kbps and older releases if they had never been ripped. Some topsites only accepted releases from certain groups. My favorite site had a folder with an archive of all the billboard top 100 albums. I think that was the top swedish site (bbs?) or maybe chiplips which I believe was hungarian. There were a couple good ones in US (MIT/RIT) but the others were in sweden, hungary, netherlands. I think one in France.

It was interesting to see how those groups and topsites were chased and shut down, but the P2P platforms that came out made it impossible to shut down anyway.

Same! And APC rings a bell - were they MP3 and ISO?

I was an MP3 courier in a group on a lot of global top sites. I remember being in an irc chan for one of them (I think it was the hungarian one) and kali of the top group RNS stated his birthday or something else personal and said "oh crap I shouldn't have said that" lol. He was indicted by the DOJ in 2009! He was found not guilty of conspiracy to commit copyright infringementalthouh 4 other members pleaded guilty.

They busted sites from time to time but RIAA couldn't do anything substantial. I stayed away from movies and tv because that was riskier and I enjoyed getting music a week or two before the p2p platforms got them. And also getting high quality rips. The sister group that did ISOs eventually got busted.

Saw the move from ftp to fxp and shell accounts and semi-auto and automated trading. Some government officials would spend years to infiltrate the groups to bust the sites and members.

Anyway, it was with being a courier that I got interested in code and had an insane amount of lines to handle all the topsite rules on what they would accept and I traded semi-automated. We even had a UI to help.

I actually met a few people from those days in person and they were really cool. Still friends with one of them today. Many groups required meeting in person or doing a phone call before you could join and then they eventually relaxed that.

On the other hand, americans are fat as hell lol. (I am american)

Obviously that is a complicated issue, but what's the cost look like for everyone if 40% of Americans weren't so fat?

Anecdotally, my camera system alerted me and I witnessed someone enter my neighbors vehicle. I got my neighbor and we got the dude out of the car and I asked him unkindly what the hell he was doing and if he had stolen anything.

When police arrived much later the perp actually showed back up down the street and I pointed him out. It was a struggle to get them to go see who he was and investigate, even though I had photo and video evidence of the crime.

Later that night, that same guy broke into another neighbor's house and they came in much hotter, with shotguns to clear the house and they were able to arrest him not far down the street.

> If I'm always giving the mugger my gun, why carry it?

That's just your perspective and talking point. Parent was clearly trying to say that there may be a situation where you DO need it to protect yourself or family from being killed/raped/etc.

No, I'm saying that if you want to sell to both operators you should want to satisfy both criteria:

1) easy to say yes to and 2) easy and quick to deliver a win after the yes.

The cowboys would need solutions that work without having to change human processes much (if any). They have a hierarchical command of their subordinates akin to a police department or army, not a normal leadership command; they don't give them much trust or room to think. Getting them to say yes requires something that is pretty brain dead to implement and delivers results quickly.

The subordinates are going to trust the warehouse manager more than the business owner. There are often competing interests between those parties. If you satisfy the above, you can satisfy the owner and the warehouse manager and get a yes and get results. If you don't, you could have a great solution, get a yes from owner and a disastrous time wasting experience with the implementation. If you don't understand the human processes involved, your solution will fail.

The good operators are more likely to be open to trying things that require some change to their operation. Example: putting massive barcodes on pallets for the drones to easily detect nightly for inventory and installing power for drone stations or modifying human processes for efficiency. But good operators get pitched all the time and are more sophisticated so you still need to make it easy to yes and easy to win. If your solution needs a lot of human intervention and takes time to get the win, you can get sucked into that implementation vortex which is hard to scale.

I have some direct experience with some warehouses. On a personal level with employees and owners. And on a tech and solution level too.

I'm actually amazed these warehouses are even semi-functional with the talent and wild west environment they seem to operate in. In retrospect - they seem very similar to a police department.

There are a ton of super smart people in logistics but by and large, it's an industry full of cowboys.

Now, I've also been to super clean distribution centers that are incredible. Drones automatically fly around each evening to take inventory and operators that are on top of every piece of the business.

Disrupting an industry like this is very hard as you mentioned.

Much easier to break off pieces where you don't require a lot of people/stakeholders and the solution is 1) easy to say yes to and 2) easy and quick to deliver a win after the yes.

I want no part of that business unless it satisfies those things.

They're overwhelming the employee and financial bottleneck!

This is nonsense. If you bill fixed, then you're doing it wrong if you estimate so lean that you put yourself at risk. And it's a disservice to the client if you are really conservative and they pay a lot more than T&M would have been. And if you are spot on with your fixed estimate, then that's the same outcome as T&M lol.

If you are an honest person and do business the right way, T&M is the way to go. If you want a higher effective hourly, then you would pad fixed. That doesn't make you professional though; it makes you dishonest if you purposely inflate.

If the company needs it to be fixed to compare apples to apples or their finance dept requires it, then submit your fixed scopes and run your business. It's professional to be flexible. And to not fight client processes and procedures.

You will not win a lot of great business if you have only 1 way to run your projects. Some larger companies will take a vendor that costs way more but offers better terms like net 45 or net 90.

I'm a professional. I run a business with employees that's grown every year. We do both, but it's better T&M. All time is logged with descriptions of what was done. We bill based on seniority.

We still do time estimates on items that are T&M so my team is accountable, thinks about their approach and time, and so the client can have an idea of what they are committing to. They don't care if it goes over, it just can't get out of control. And they need this information to triage and approve requests.

T&M with time estimates is a professional way to go. Some of your estimates will be off, some will be under. Just make sure clients understand that and traffic your wins and losses. And if you find out your 24 hr task is going to take 60 hours, notify the client as soon as you discover that to avoid surprises.

I'm experimenting with a more traditional contingency budget which is explicit in the estimate. In that manner, a fixed bid would be done but the client would be aware that there could be unknowns that result in tapping the contingency budget. And if it's not tapped - they don't pay it. So rather than try to bake the unknowns into the fixed which the client would pay regardless, I can have the contingency reserved if needed but be more palatable against a competing bid that wraps it into their fixed.

So say, 100k fixed bid, separate 20% contingency for unknowns for my bid. Versus another company's 120k fixed bid, no contingency. Both possible 120k spend. One may not use contingency and thus be 20k cheaper. The other - 120k is paid no matter what.

Anyone do that on their larger projects? How is that received?

> Some software issues are caused by engineering, but most of them are just some implementation detail like an "!" in the wrong place.

Yes most of them (by the numbers) because software is more complicated than a bridge which has been a solved problem for a long time and because even the worker bees that write code have a more serious relationship with the software than someone pouring concrete in construction, which is also already a solved problem and for the most part - has one true way to do it, unlike software.

If you have proper quality control and budgets for that, then we'd have a lot less bugs that you are talking about. I don't get your point though.

You are saying software is so easy it's not real engineering and software fails because some coder screwed up? I don't buy that.

The success of every project comes down to quality engineering which encompasses a lot of things that are outside of just the part of the job called coding (budget, schedule, requirements gathering, build, quality control, risk mitigation, redundancy, ongoing monitoring, hosting/infrastructure, maintenance, etc).

A civil engineer is more of an engineer than a coder (which isn't an engineer) which is the conflation that caused my prior post.

However, a civil engineer is NOT more of an engineer than a real software engineer. I'd submit the opposite and the market agrees.

And if you don't believe that then you will eventually when there are more catastrophic failures in critical software. Probably AI or self driving cars when the stakes are higher. If it's a dumb bug as you allude to, that won't make it less of an engineering discipline. It would make it more.

I can't even believe there is debate about software engineering being a thing with all the incredible things that have been built.

> This is why programmers are not licensed engineers, and I have my doubts about being a serious engineering profession.

You're conflating two different things.

Coding and programming does not make one an engineer. Just like assembling a bridge does not make one an engineer. Or building a house, an architect.

On the other hand, actual software engineering can be a serious engineering profession. As serious as any other engineering form.

Anecdotally, I've found mountain people to be much crazier than normal. The desert has high drug use and has crazies, but even desert people acknowledge the mountain people are more unpredictable and unhinged.

This may or may not be fair, I don't know, but from my experience, if I'm to theorize a generalization in conjunction with this study:

Poor education. Lack of steady jobs. Low ambition. They consider themselves self-reliant people even if they take government subsidies. Don't need to work much to maintain their lifestyle. Would prefer to get a higher hourly rate, not to extrapolate to have a nice income, but to be able to work like 20% of the year, be paid in cash and also take government benefits. Which is likely also driven by the lack of steady jobs that provide healthcare to be fair. Idle time and lack of structure in their lives leading to higher drug and alcohol usage. Financial and health stress. Leading to higher suicide rates.

Study mentions altitude itself and hypoxia and controlling for income. But one could have the same income in a lower altitude location and have MUCH better access to healthcare, quality of healthcare, and steadier/structured employment than the higher altitude people that take their life.

As with most things, I think it's a combination of factors. And the altitude itself seems to be one of them. Not only from the study's stated hypoxia, but it's a lot harder to work at altitude just like it is in the desert with the heat. When people don't have steady jobs and schedules, they have idle time, and along with other pressures and stress, bad things happen.

Lol. You know musk will do another 1.420 miles

I'm casually suggesting what pretty much every country has done at some point that has been oppressed to unlock a better future for themselves and their posterity.

They could start with, I dunno, maybe not voting disproportionately for more of the same?

How is this hard if, as you suggested, they are aware of the propaganda lol?

I don't buy it.

Yes you can. Most countries correct course at some point, whether via election, protest, upheaval, civil war. etc.

The younger generation understands. But I don't buy that Russians, esp the older, simply know the level of control and propaganda that they've been subjected to over the years. Otherwise they would have done something about it by now.

No I don't think it is but nobody is under the pretense that the engagement you outlined is full-time.

I'm torn between this being fraudulent and being totally fair if his employers have no clue.

I guess I'm old school? I built my reputation, network and career based on doing actual work and getting shit done. And that happens to be the harder but more lucrative, guilt-free and rewarding path than this.

Personally, as someone who employs people, I don't like it because I don't feel mid to senior people should have to be babysat and have someone watching their every move to ensure they are actually working. Find shit to do and add value, ask your team if they need help. Certainly he can add value for more than just the shit that is directly assigned to him.

It's a really bad look, especially for IT which got ravaged by the cloud over the years.

This guy can't be that good technically given his salary goal for the first job. He's definitely taking advantage of these companies. And taking 2 jobs from other people.

> "I am salary-based, so it doesn't really matter if I work 15 hours a week or 40 hours a week," he said. "If I do the job that they hire me for, then I have earned my pay."

What low talent, low ambition people say.

That being said, it's a strong financial move for him at 48 yrs old for his family. If I was in that career spot and financial position as him at that age, I may consider it too.

Do they though? Because we haven't seen a course correction yet. How long do they need?

Evenings in the desert are awesome in the summer.

Don't know where you get "everyone else". I'm not talking about primaries and those with primaries aren't just "holding"... they need a place to live. Most people do not have real estate investments.

Investors are not in RE as a pure buy and hold. Maybe a few foreign entities parking cash in the US. But outside of that, no they don't. They live in them. Or they rent them for a profit or near break even. Rents have/can/will go up even more.

There aren't many properties that were purchased at elevated levels that have no economic prospect to them and could thus flood the market like you insinuate - ie an airbnb bought for 800k that now can't service the debt because short term revenue dropped and long term local rental revenue is too low. Even then, those that bought aren't looking to take a major hit and didn't buy with lax lending like 08, so the prices are what they are. You need foreclosures and short sales to make meaningful drops nationwide.

My properties cash flowed before the pandemic. During. And after. I honestly don't care about values, I'll buy more if they plummet but values have never been a bet in my plan. I care about cash flow and risk in an economic downturn but I'll take the inflation hedge too. You make money when you buy. There are still places you can buy now and make money. I look at a lot of things but always at replacement cost and cash flow.

The thesis is that there is no escaping the debt load. About the only sure bet IS that the money printer will return in overdrive. There is NO choice. And I don't care if it's this year or next year, but it will return soon.

You need assets before and when that happens. Not cash on the sidelines waiting for a dip that probably won't happen.

Whatever asset though - IMO, it should be cash flowing and be able to weather an uncertain economic and financial climate.

You seem to think Fed is going to fight inflation and bring down housing prices and save everything and also create this buy opportunity in various assets. Perhaps they keep hiking and we finally get a commercial RE crash and the Fed member's banks and associates can have a feast. Sure. I'm surprised that didn't occur a long time ago. But we're not talking about commercial RE.

How does the US escape the debt load and maintain these interest rates and higher and get to 2% target inflation?

Every solution involves printing. And how do you print a shit ton and keep inflation at 2%? You can't. You have to inflate something.

Best to have that something than cash or a non inflation hedging asset.

> The economy is whacked by inflation right now, you better believe that the Fed has gotten religion in considering housing costs as part of their inflation measure. So...as long as housing costs keep rising, interest rates are going to stay high anyways

The Fed is completely incompetent. "Inflation is transitory" over and over. And interest rates cannot stay high. At 32T in debt and rates, we'll eventually have to pay 1.6T in just interest annually. In the last quarter of 2022, we paid $213B in interest alone.

The longer interest rates are this high, the more pain on the entire world, as there are ~20T in USD denominated debt in addition to the 32T in US debt. And about 190T in unfunded liabilities in the US! Already insolvent. The only solution is to print.

The US and the world cannot sustain higher interest rates as the world reserve currency and the high debt load. But the Fed has to do something to at least appear like they are in control and competent. And to tame inflation to avoid civil unrest and political backlash. Most people have seen inflation outpace their wage growth.

I bring this up because the ones in charge are the ones with assets. And those with assets don't really care about inflation.

That's a large part of my thesis. And I'll be holding tangible assets like real estate when the printer goes back in overdrive because there is no other choice.

We can tell that despite less favorable lending, there are still multiple bids on homes in many top markets.

If the lock in is a large factor, then inventory will shoot up as rates come back down. But then so will home prices as monthly payments come down and those dejected from losing bids before re-enter the market.

Is the market going to be flooded with new housing? No. Is the market going to be flooded with people downgrading and moving into rentals? Prob not. For every old couple downgrading there's a younger couple needing to upgrade for more space due to WFH and/or kids or a first time homebuyer ready on the wing. Or an investment group ready to buy and rent.

So basically - if rates go higher - many people are further locked in. Enjoy the favorable loan and inflation protection in RE. Inventory stays low.

If rates go lower - more buyers. Maybe some upgrade/downgrade inventory.

But there will be no magical new housing starts. Construction costs (labor/materials) unlikely to drop meaningfully.

Home prices remain stable in most places and going up with inflation and time.

And when the Fed reverses course - prices will jump.

I don't see how prices drop as some might hope (first time homebuyers) in the near future.

> Real estate has value & a premium associated with the credit markets & revenue generated by the property (e.g. rentals).

Yes for commercial - usually cap rate based which is related to return and risk, replacement cost valuation, or revenue multiplier.

With regard to residential - prices are going to go up when fed goes the other way. They have NOT been propped up with credit or favorable interest rates. Those factors have gotten worse but prices have held strong.

They have been propped up because supply is still low and new construction is expensive. Those things aren't likely to change anytime soon. Not to mention US RE is still a good place to park foreign cash in relative terms and is a good inflation hedge.

Rents will go up. Home prices will go up.

Commercial hasn't fallen out yet though. Office space should be converted to multi family residential or mixed use.

Commercial collapse is likely though which I think you are referring to.

But to the article at hand - could be a way to monetize a sharp drop in revenue due to WFH and the hike in interest rates - convert to affordable housing and offset any investment to cities (ie taxpayers) to address the homeless and affordability crisis.