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esbranson

437 karma · joined January 3, 2014

https://twitter.com/esbranson

https://github.com/esbranson

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esbranson··on U.S. jobs disappear at fastest January pace since great recession
The biggest change to me the acceptability of falsehoods on the left. It is a battle they will not win.
esbranson··on U.S. jobs disappear at fastest January pace since great recession
It's a lagging indicator meant to credit or discredit administrations for past administrations' actions, handpicked to obfuscate cycle capture. CES is backward-looking by definition, so it is being abused here.

Also think of average populations under constant growth, as under Obama and Trump I pre-COVID: Trump's average would be higher in absolute terms than Obama, despite no fundamental change, and Biden higher still, and Trump II higher yet. Absolute populations and jobs go hand in hand. Averages without normalization are statistical theater.

Us Wikipedians have done a poor job on the federal statistical system (FSS or NSS), and this one of many results, this HN thread. I am working on it with the help of chat bots, but progress is slow given my focus on US healthcare and welfare systems. Fundamental laws have been documented, but the actual systems they enable are poorly documented.

esbranson··on U.S. jobs disappear at fastest January pace since great recession
The Challenger report contains large companies' announced future cuts. Not government, not small and medium business, not actual job losses. So neither, really.
esbranson··on U.S. jobs disappear at fastest January pace since great recession
CES establishment payroll survey monthly change averages is quite the choice of stats lol.

JOLTS is where stress shows first. Openings fall,[1] hiring slows,[2] quits drop,[3] and layoffs rise later.[4] Biden in particular shows the weakness of your provided stats.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSHIL

[3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSQUL

[4] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSLDL

esbranson··on U.S. jobs disappear at fastest January pace since great recession
Chicken Little already told us. Armageddon is also coming, don't forget about that.

JOLTS data for January 2026 has been delayed, but don't expect those tea leaves to change your opinion about what the future holds.

esbranson··on "The Stanford scam proves America is becoming a nation of grifters"
I think the wrong burdens of proof are being used. "Reasonable suspicion" should be used for investigations.
esbranson··on "The Stanford scam proves America is becoming a nation of grifters"
India and Sweden don't have US-elite-level institutions governed by the admissions processes you discuss. KTH is not Harvard, and KI is not HMS. There are American universities with such processes, and enough students admitted under them in California and Texas and a few other US states to repopulate Sweden, and I would think for every Swedish university there is an equivalent or better US university with such an admissions process. I hazard the same thing could be done for all of Europe.
esbranson··on "The Stanford scam proves America is becoming a nation of grifters"
There is no evidence this is a moral panic.

> But nobody has been able to provide evidence of these things.

Universities are able to provide such evidence, and are the only ones who can.

> that everybody is getting access

There is no evidence that this is actuality, or ever will be.

The "little or no evidence" line to defeat premises is cheap.

esbranson··on Claude is a space to think
> Blocking access

> Asking to regulate hardware chips more

> partnerships with [the military-industrial complex]

> only labs doing good in that front are Chinese labs

That last one is a doozy.

esbranson··on FCC Helps Verizon Make It Harder for You to Switch Wireless Carriers
You mean bans on recent industry affiliation and cooling-off periods? Like the recent federal vaccine committee (ACIP) under Trump? If I understand correctly, the current ACIP members have pretty good insulation from the vaccine industry. I would uh guess that uh many people would disagree that such a disconnect with industry results in better outcomes.
esbranson··on SETI Home Flags 100 Signals After Sorting 12B Others
> suns are sentient beings, and by just watching the stars, we may see them communicate

With radio signals?

esbranson··on SETI Home Flags 100 Signals After Sorting 12B Others
We have a statutory office within the US Department of Defense meant to track UFOs (AARO).[1] Why would such things be sending electromagnetic signals from outer space?

Literally thousands of witnesses. It's very odd to say "aliens may exist, but those nuclear weapons officers are crazy, aliens would definitely be sending signals from elsewhere, they would not be and are not here."

[1] 50 USC § 3373 https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/50/3373

esbranson··on FCC Helps Verizon Make It Harder for You to Switch Wireless Carriers
Looking at Tech Dirt's related articles from 2007, I cannot find any articles about "Bush's FCC" implementing the open platform regulations in question.[1]

The problem is that Obama's FCC did nothing (also not discussed by Tech Dirt, aka lying by omission) so that only one nationwide carrier, Verizon, remained bound by mandatory unlocking.

> US journalism is a clown show

Tech Dirt is little better than propaganda, defined more by what they omit than what they do not. Chatbot summaries, including of the reports and orders in question, are immensely more informative. I suspect even Deep Seek would give a clearer picture of reality.

[1] https://www.fcc.gov/document/service-rules-698-746-747-762-a...

esbranson··on Linkers and Loaders
I don't think there's anything comparable to it. With all the topics people write books on over and over, how is this still unique?
esbranson··on US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
The prime age (25-54 years old) labor force participation rate disagrees.[1] It's almost the highest it's ever been and steady.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060

esbranson··on US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
Correct. The prime age labor force participation rate is 0.8% lower than the all-time record highest in recorded US history, January 1999.
esbranson··on US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
It never has. The labor force participation rate for 25-54 year-olds is a better metric for such things.[1] Last time it was this high was 1990s through 2002. (Before that, it was never this high.)

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060

esbranson··on Gatekeepers of Law: Inside the Westlaw and LexisNexis Duopoly
One would need the data.
esbranson··on Gatekeepers of Law: Inside the Westlaw and LexisNexis Duopoly
PACER is currently a "lesser concern" because of FLP, compared to state court dockets in backwards states like California and New York (affecting some 60 million people alone), though by no means solved.

And if by discouraging you mean encouraging people to adopt freeways and pick up litter, I definitely intended to set expectations about how much might be achieved without addressing fundamental free law movement issues.

We do need help on Wikipedia though, but that is more ancillary and general.

esbranson··on Gatekeepers of Law: Inside the Westlaw and LexisNexis Duopoly
If you're trying to fix anything relating to public policy, politics, &c., without fixing this you are wasting your time. You will make a bigger difference adopting a local stretch of highway and picking up litter. It is maddening to see generation after generation learn this the hard way.

FLP's CourtListener RECAP hits hard, but it has no counterparts either worldwide or within the US. If it goes offline, democracy and rule of law across the entire world go offline with it. Federal statutes and regulations are a very small part of black letter law.

esbranson··on Loss32: Let's Build a Win32/Linux
Cool. Having major distributions default to using binfmt_misc to register Wine for PE executables (EXE files) would be nice though. Next steps would obviously be for Windows apps to have their own OS-level identity, confined and permissioned per app using normal Linux security mechanisms, run against a reproducible and pinned Wine runtime with clearly managed state, integrated with the desktop as normal applications (launching, file associations, icons), and produce per-app logs and crash information, so they can be operated and managed like native programs. We have AI now, this should not be rocket science or require major investments. Only viable way Linux is replacing Windows.
esbranson··on Are We Ready to Be Governed by Artificial Intelligence?
"Yellow journalism" becomes "misinformation". "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" becomes "algorithmic bias". What's new is old again.

Denial of care is not a new moral failing introduced by machines, it is an old cost-containment policy implemented more efficiently with computers. For example, the No Surprises Act of 2020 created a federally-managed independent dispute resolution (IDR) process for institutional players to appeal claim denials, while it (and Obamacare) intentionally left the rest of us with an opaque, privately-managed independent review organization (or IRO) process for our appeals. Examples are likely merely the tip of the iceberg.

Little to do with AI. Or even computers. "Trump" is what this is about. Previously it was Bush, and before that Reagan, Nixon, or whoever the last non-Democrat was. Someone else besides "me".

esbranson··on Researchers discover molecular difference in autistic brains
My understanding is that an issue is local hyperconnectivity / long-range underintegration, linked by the E/I imbalance.[1][2]

[1] "The findings support the idea that an imbalance of excitatory and inhibitory signals in the brain could be contributing to traits associated with autism, the researchers say." https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/molecular-difference-...

[2] "Converging evidence from diverse studies suggests that atypical brain connectivity in autism affects in distinct ways short- and long-range cortical pathways, disrupting neural communication and the balance of excitation and inhibition." https://doi.org/10.3389/fnhum.2013.00609

esbranson··on US bars approvals of new models of DJI, all other foreign drones
> UAS and UAS critical components produced in a foreign country …

Forces drone engineering and manufacturing into the US if they want to sell anything to anyone in the US.

esbranson··on Can I use HTTPS RRs?
And even with alpn="h3" in my HTTPS RR, Chromium will still refuse without serving over TCP with a Alt-Svc header.
esbranson··on Can I use HTTPS RRs?
As for Encrypted Client Hello (ECH), the next step in privacy, I think the issue has been with the web servers. NGINX began supporting it a few days ago? Chromium and even Cloudflare supported it since 2023.
esbranson··on Former CIA spy: agency's tools can takeover your phone, TV, and even your car
I also want to takeover my phone, TV, and even my car.
esbranson··on Illuminating the processor core with LLVM-mca
Too bad they don't support LC-3 or DLX. More my level lol. So begins another deep dive side quest with the chatbot into a tool I didn't even know existed.
esbranson··on Europeans' health data sold to US firm run by ex-Israeli spies
> either the government makes such services, and makes them well enough to seriously compete

Europeans have already made open source versions of quite a few things as side projects without any funding. The issue is a lack of transparency (by American standards) that hides just how hideously incompetent and outrageous (even by American standards) member state governments are. (PACER is a big reason how Americans know what Europeans are ignorant about.) I do believe an EU member state could otherwise create any service that American companies already proved are desirable, make it free for nationals and residents and require payment for others, and use EUDI as the login and verification, probably for quite cheap.

esbranson··on Europeans' health data sold to US firm run by ex-Israeli spies
> taxpayer funded EuroTube and EuroGram

I believe an EU member state could create any service that American companies already proved are desirable, make it free for nationals and residents and require payment for others, and use EUDI as the login and verification. Probably for quite cheap. They're just too incompetent.

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