epicureanideal

Get your domain names now! AI Slop Abatement, the major growth industry of the 2030s.

I agree, I’m just saying the extent is influenced heavily by the increasing availability of workers at the lower end of the automation distribution.

> Baumol effects might have raised wages a bit, sure. How could the relative positions of these workers not fall as all these tech-enabled and scale-enabled neighbors come on to the scene?

Supply and demand? If the population of hairdressers was small, so they could charge more and more, then their wages could keep up as a percentage. And that would be possible if for example so many people moved into high productivity work that only a small percentage remained in low automation work. But if you have a constant influx of new hairdressers or a constant influx of people willing to do low automation work, that doesn’t happen.

What changes in your subjective sensation of your teeth with K2?

Let's ask an LLM as a test!

You may be correct, but I wonder if we'll see Mac Mini sized external AI boxes that do have the 1TB of RAM and other hardware for running local models.

Maybe 100% of computer users wouldn't have one, but maybe 10-20% of power users would, including programmers who want to keep their personal code out of the training set, and so on.

I would not be surprised though if some consumer application made it desirable for each individual, or each family, to have local AI compute.

It's interesting to note that everyone owns their own computer, even though a personal computer sits idle half the day, and many personal computers hardly ever run at 80% of their CPU capacity. So the inefficiency of owning a personal AI server may not be as much of a barrier as it would seem.

Bad code can persist because nobody wants to touch it.

Unfortunately I’m not sure there are good metrics.

1/4 within 15 years doesn’t sound like a huge problem.. if it were 80% within 5 years, ok you’d have my attention.

> If some manager's value is "I just need to phone it in and retire" and you are misson-driven, you have an obstacle.

This describes the majority of my career in tech, I think.

Maybe not that exact situation every time, but similar goals of manager or team that are not “accomplish the mission”.

The value of that airplane would be astronomical. I would split it up into dozens of flights just to reduce risk if one of them had a mechanical problem.

Academic freedom? Where has that existed in the last 20 years?

I’m looking forward to the day when the cost of taking one of these falls to somewhere 20% above the cost of fuel and wear and tear on the vehicle, making it incredibly cheap to take a ride anywhere you’d reasonably want to be driven to.

I agree, directionally. To be even more precise we probably want an even better metric, but that’s closer yeah.

By a better metric I mean something that would even more accurately capture quality of life, healthcare outcomes, social ties, productivity within the home or family that isn’t tied to an income from an employer, etc.

And especially importantly, on per capita GDP. Immigration would almost certainly cause GDP to go up, but the per capita effects are important, especially on the original population. (Qualifier added because if the original population experienced an increase in per capita median GDP they might consider it net positive even if the recent arrivals had a lower than median per capita income, who might also be satisfied if that’s still 3x what they were earning elsewhere.)

It seems homelessness and deaths of despair are also dangerous though, so maybe we should reassess the risk adjusted proper balance of standards?

I think many Americans have the impression that this violates the terms of their lease, and without other-country kinship connections and networks, they’re not aware of how to find people who would lease under high occupancy conditions. It may even be illegal. So we may need to explicitly make these legal again so Americans will rent in this way.

A random idea I had a few years ago was, what if someone started a “recent modern Amish” community, where they just intentionally keep the community’s tech usage either fixed at 1960s or 1990s, or maybe a fixed number of years in the past like 30 or 50 (meaning, the time target moves forward by a year each year).

So the kids growing up now might be playing the original Nintendo NES, or maybe an N64, they’d have phones and even computers, etc.

It could even be a little more nuanced like, the community could vote in certain classes of more modern goods.

The median dev doesn’t work in a city with a median cost of living. The jobs are concentrated where there’s a high cost of living.

I think it’s great that there will be more competition in the space, not to mention more hiring, etc.

_.any, some, every, keyBy.

It would also be interesting to see a version corrected for the warmer temperatures due to Atlantic currents. Although that might cause some sort of near-Atlantic or near-Mediterranean "skew" in the map rather than the whole map dropping or raising by some amount, but maybe adjusting the whole map could be a reasonable first approximation.

Let them offshore if that’s what’s going to happen. And then let the stats show that American employment in certain sectors is tanking, and let the electorate decide what to do about that. Basically, I think this is a multi-round game rather than a one or two round game.

Probably could be repurposed for something else though?

Interesting! Makes me think of old 1990s X-Files episodes with chips under a microscope “smaller than we can produce”.

I wonder if the government makes small batches of bespoke chips that are super miniature based on non scalable processes, and how far back in time would they have been able to develop 1nm chips for example?

> unusually homogenous communities

Which can be socioeconomic rather than racial..

It’s hard to break into the club of people who know CEOs or have parents or relatives who are VPs of major companies and can provide access for startups by people they know, for example.

TDD doesn’t ensure the code is maintainable, extendable, follows best practices, etc, and while AI might write some code that can pass tests while the code is relatively small, I would expect in the long run it will find it extremely difficult to just “rewrite everything based on this set of new requirements” and then do that again, and again, and again, each time potentially choosing entirely different architectures for the solution.

They’d probably launch from a sea platform on behalf of some random country just to spite NASA at that point.

Look at that, Morocco beats NASA to the moon!

Would it be possible to artificially increase the glucose in the brain to get a nootropic effect?

Although aside from JSX, so much has changed it could’ve been a new framework at least once, and part of its longevity is that it doesn’t bundle a router, form handling, etc, and the popular ones of these have changed many times.

> They all failed at sales, scaling, retention, and generally running the business.

This also applies to most non-technical, “business folks”-led businesses as well.