enoint

I feel like it’s just as likely that China and MAGA mutually censor each others sensitive answers. Who in MAGA benefits from a Tiananmen focus? Who under Xi benefits from calling Jan 6 a failed coup?

Only MAIGA approved models are permitted to resolve bets on US prediction markets.

Sure, I can ask around. It's a drought here, so we're looking for things to talk about.

It's not really about the numbers, though, is it? The red button future is now a mix of game theoreticians, Objectivists, and people who like the color red. The proportion of parasites is up.

So that Galt's Gulch could source a short order cook, Ayn Rank explained that a renown philosopher gave up his career to become one.

Red does have risk: you’d be left in a world without things produced by the blue pressers. I suspect that’s red's food, water and shelter.

edit: specified who

I thought about the ternary choice. Unconscious people, conscientious objectors, etc. The wording is that blue needs to exceed 50%, so the doomsday machine defaults to red.

I think this is already baked in. A world of red pressers must know they’ll adapt to a shortage of things produced by blue pressers. Many red pressers won’t survive.

The variation I like is: regardless of the outcome, red choosers are forbidden from performing manual labor. You can tell a lot about someone who chooses that button.

Crosstabbing the results into a state-by-state table would be interesting.

Yes and yes. Without the core of blue workers, red people will need to open Atlas Shrugged about how to assign short order cook duty.

Should be clear that, when faced with a power capable of doing this, humanity should cooperate to entirely choose red.

Becomes more interesting if, whatever the outcome, choosing red somehow removes the ability to perform manual labor.

Tony Robbins is also announced!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/04/25/trump-cry...

I think 3 and 4 are frauds on others in the prediction market agreement. As in, it’s fraud against the terms of the market.

Yeah the DoJ proclaims,

“Our Office will continue to hold accountable those who misuse confidential or classified information in a way that undermines and exploits our national security.”

But isn’t wire fraud harder to prove than leaking classified facts?

Or, your brigade’s master sergeant needs the invasion to hit on the 28th rather than Mar 1st.

If that happened, could they retroactively classify it?

> a huge and immediately accessible collection of suckers, waiting to have their avidity and paranoia exploited for cash

We can say this in a less-judgmental way: everyone has known since the 60s what it means to target that list.

I predict that a settlement includes the following demands:

SPLC destroy all information it has about the Fred Trump lawsuit. Especially the records of Fred Trump arrested for punching a cop during a KKK rally in Queens.

Proud Boys, Oath Keepers etc. removed from the database as Jan 6 is rewritten.

And the grand jury testimony likely includes discussion about why SPLC shell companies are fraud but other shell companies are respectable. I predict this testimony was immediately sealed.

Back in the early 80s, some people used home computers as seriously as they used work computers:

- organize follow-up reminders for business calls. Automate a modem-based upload.

- crunch investment options in commodities. Not in an econometric way, but a table listing which analyst said what and which analyst was silent. Automate a modem-based upload.

So, with regard to the article, we can presume the author did claw-like things with DOS. As he aged, now he probably needs to organize many trips to doctors and specialists. Who is doing all that administration for your older folks?

We're more than 40 years past the first boycotts on rainforest beef. Not small boycotts, either; big ones which were effective at scale. If we translated the concerns here into Chinese, would it affect the current top importer of rainforest beef?

I think the authors are sincere; the original title is "Only half of the calories produced on croplands are available as food for human consumption". The commenters here are talking about beef, with very little reflection on 16% of our farmed calories devoted to biofuels.

Around me, 90-120 days on max 60% field corn. If it weren't field corn, it'd be another cereal.

I think the first shots looked like the strategy at Pearl Harbor. So it’s more appropriate to learn that Japanese success at Pearl Harbor didn’t grant Japan any choices about how the war would end.

Sounds like they want to justify increasing their ad spend on X, rather than Facebook and Instagram.

Would you say the same about Dogecoin? It’s current market cap would run NASA for 9 months.

Investment banks should worry about proximity to cryptocurrency exchanges.

We knew it’d be north of 3%. 3.3% seems intermediate. From Reuters,

"There is a second wave coming, which will be the fuel surcharges that will start to show up and cross to the other commodities, food in particular“

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-inflation-expec...

The article links to methodology. The scope of the Panama Papers is one way.

It’s interesting that the Forbes top list of billionaires is significantly incomplete.

I find young people mass doubt whether the ruling class is good for the economy. In USA, this is more than doubting whether the ruling class is good for the future, or civilization.

You’d think so, but these types of people are afraid of stocks or options and find prediction websites easier to use.