883 karma · joined October 5, 2025
Am puzzled why so many on HN cannot see this. I guess most users on HN are employed? Your employers - let me tell you - are positively salivating at the prospect of firing you. The better LLM's get the fewer of you will be needed.
LLM's may not generate the best code but they need only to generate useful code to warrant their use.
This right here in your very own comment is the crux. Unless you're rich or run your own business, your employer (and many other employers) are right now counting down the days till they can think of YOU as boilerplate they want to farm YOU out to an LLM. At the very least where they currently employee 10 they are salivating about reducing it to 2.
This means painful change for a great many people. Appeal by analogy to historical changes like motorised vehicles etc miss the QUALITATIVE change occurring this time.
Many HN users may point to Jevons paradox, I would like to point out that it may very well work up until the point that it doesn't. After all a chicken has always seen the farmer as benevolent provider of food, shelter and safety, that is until of course THAT day when he decides he doesn't.
Career being the core of one's identity is so ingrained in society. Think about how schooling is directed towards producing what 'industry' needs. Education for educations sake isn't a thing. Capitalism see's to this and ensures so many avenues are closed to people.
Perhaps this will change but I fear it will be a painful transition to other modes of thinking and forming society.
Another problem is hoarding. Wealth inequality is one thing but the unadulterated hoarding by the very wealthy means that wealth is unable to circulate as freely as it ought to be. This burdens a society.
The core issue is that AI is taking away, or will take away, or threatens to take away, experiences and activities that humans would WANT to do. Things that give them meaning and many of these are tied to earning money and producing value for doing just that thing. Software/coding is once of these activities. One can do coding for fun but doing the same coding where it provides value to others/society and financial upkeep for you and your family is far more meaningful.
If that is what you've been doing, a love for coding, I can well empathise how the world is changing underneath your feet.
For those who have swallowed the AI panacea hook line and sinker. Those that say it's made me more productive or that I no longer have to do the boring bits and can focus on the interesting parts of coding. I say follow your own line of reasoning through. It demonstrates that AI is not yet powerful enough to NOT need to empower you, to NOT need to make you more productive. You're only ALLOWED to do the 'interesting' parts presently because the AI is deficient. Ultimately AI aims to remove the need for any human intermediary altogether. Everything in between is just a stop along the way and so for those it empowers stop and think a little about the long term implications. It may be that for you right now it is comfortable position financially or socially but your future you in just a few short months from now may be dramatically impacted.
As someone said "I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing, not for AI to do my art and writing so that I can do my laundry and dishes".
I can well imagine the blood draining from peoples faces, the graduate coder who can no longer get on the job ladder. The law secretary whose dream job is being automated away, a dream dreamt from a young age. The journalist whose value has been substituted by a white text box connected to an AI model.
I don't have any ideas as to what should be done or more importantly what can be done. Pandora's box has been opened, Humpty Dumpty has fallen and he can't be put back together again. AI feels like it has crossed the rubicon. We must all collectively await to see where the dust settles.
I do not think that the current philosophical world view will enable a different path. We've had resets or potential resets, COVID being a huge opportunity, but I think neither the public nor the political class had the strength to seize the moment.
We live in a world where we know the price of everything and the value of nothing. It will take dramatic change to put 'value' back where it belongs and relegate price farther down the ladder.
Your digital thermometer doesn't think either.
I do think there is a qualitative difference in AI as compared to previous automation changes. This qualitative difference and its potential impacts beyond the obvious (job losses) is what is more worrying. The societal impact of AI slop, the impact on human intellectual efforts, pursuits, value and meaning are very concerning.
For those who have swallowed the AI panacea hook line and sinker. Those that say it's made me more productive or that I no longer have to do the boring bits and can focus on the interesting parts of coding. I say follow your own line of reasoning through. It demonstrates that AI is not yet powerful enough to NOT need to empower you, to NOT need to make you more productive. You're only ALLOWED to do the 'interesting' parts presently because the AI is deficient. Ultimately AI aims to remove the need for any human intermediary altogether. Everything in between is just a stop along the way and so for those it empowers stop and think a little about the long term implications. It may be that for you right now it is comfortable position financially or socially but your future you in just a few short months from now may be dramatically impacted.
As someone said "I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing, not for AI to do my art and writing so that I can do my laundry and dishes".
I can well imagine the blood draining from peoples faces, the graduate coder who can no longer get on the job ladder. The law secretary whose dream job is being automated away, a dream dreamt from a young age. The journalist whose value has been substituted by a white text box connected to an AI model.
I don't have any ideas as to what should be done or more importantly what can be done. Pandora's box has been opened, Humpty Dumpty has fallen and he can't be put back together again. AI feels like it has crossed the rubicon. We must all collectively await to see where the dust settles.
Thus far it appears applications of AI that provide 'benefit' do so by removing or reducing the need for human operators. Examples include: fewer software engineers, fewer call centres, removing potentially whole areas of work such as paralegals and in general automating away many white collar jobs.
By far the largest use case of AI is this.
AI use cases do not appear to be of the type that unlock NEW capabilities.
The main use cases in AI are not about wealth creation but about saving existing wealth (largely through increased automation of human operators).
Also they don't reason, or think or any of the other myriad nonsense attributed to LLM's. I hate the platitudes given to LLM's it's at PHD level. It's now able to answer math olympiad questions. It answers them by statistical pattern recognition!
> My paper and pen version of the latest LLM
My point here was to attempt to remove the mystery of LLM's by showing the same thing can be done with pen and paper version, after all an LLM is an algorithm. Because an LLM is running on a 'supercomputer' or is digital doesn't provide it some mysterious new powers.
However I can attempt to provide insight by taking the opposite approach here. For instance what is NOT reasoning. Getting a computer to follow a series of steps (an algorithm) is NOT reasoning. A chess computer is NOT reasoning it is following a series of steps. The implications of assuming that the chess computer IS reasoning would have profound affects on so much, for example it would imply your digital thermostat also reasons!
It isn't a case of ratio it is a fundamentally different method of working hence my point of not needing all human literary output do the the equivalent of an LLM. Consider even the case of a person born blind they have an even more severe deficiency of input yet they are equivalent in cognitive capacity to a sighted person and certainly any LLM.
> In the case of number multiplication, a bunch of papers have shown that the correct algorithm for the first and last digits of the number are embedded into the model weights. I think that counts as "understanding";
Why are those numbers in the model weights? What if the model was trained on birdsong instead of humanities output would it then be able to multiply? Humans provide the connections, the reasoning the thought the insights and the subsequent correlations THEN we humans try to make a good pattern matcher/ guesser (the LLM) to match those. We tweak it so it matches patterns more and more closely.
> most humans I have talked to do not have that understanding of numbers.
This common retort: most humans also makes mistakes, or most humans also do x, y, z means nothing. Take the opposite implication of such retorts. For example most humans can't multiply 10 digits numbers therefore most calculators 'understand' maths better than most humans.
> I don't think something being an algorithm means it can't reason, know or understand. I can come up with perfectly rigorous definitions of those words that wouldn't be objectionable to almost anyone from 2010, but would be passed by current LLMs.
My digital thermometer uses an algorithm to determine the temperature. It does NOT reason when doing so. An algorithm is a series of steps. You can write them on a piece of paper. The paper will not be thinking if that is done.
> I have found anthropomorphizing LLMs to be a reasonably practical way to....
I think anthropomorphising is letting people assume they are more than they are (next token generators). In fact at the extreme end this anthropomorphising has led to exacerbating mental health conditions and unfortunately has even led to humans killing themselves.
I really do find it puzzling so many on HN are convinced LLM's reason or think and continue to entertain this line of reasoning. At the same time also somehow knowing what precisely the brain/mind does and constantly using CS language to provide correspondences where there are none. The simplest example being that LLM's somehow function in a similar fashion to human brains. They categorically do not. I do not have most all of human literary output in my head and yet I can coherently write this sentence.
As I'm on the subject LLM's don't hallucinate. They output text and when that text is measured and judged by a human to be 'correct' then it is. LLM's 'hallucinate' because that is literally what they can ONLY do, provide some output given some input. They don't actually understand anything about what they output. It's just text.
My paper and pen version of the latest LLM (quite a large bit of paper and certainly a lot of ink I might add) will do the same thing as the latest SOTA LLM. It's just an algorithm.
I am surprised so many in the HN community have so quickly taken to assuming as fact that LLM's think or reason. Even anthropomorphising LLM's to this end.
The core issue is that AI is taking away, or will take away, or threatens to take away, experiences and activities that humans would WANT to do. Things that give them meaning and many of these are tied to earning money and producing value for doing just that thing. As someone said "I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing, not for AI to do my art and writing so that I can do my laundry and dishes".
Much of the meaning we humans derive from work is tied to the value it provides to society. One can do coding for fun but doing the same coding where it provides value to others/society is far more meaningful.
Presently some may say: AI is amazing I am much more productive, AI is just a tool or that AI empowers me. The irony is that this in itself shows the deficiency of AI. It demonstrates that AI is not yet powerful enough to NOT need to empower you to NOT need to make you more productive. Ultimately AI aims to remove the need for a human intermediary altogether that is the AI holy grail. Everything in between is just a stop along the way and so for those it empowers stop and think a little about the long term implications. It may be that for you right now it is comfortable position financially or socially but your future you in just a few short months may be dramatically impacted.
I can well imagine the blood draining from peoples faces, the graduate coder who can no longer get on the job ladder. The law secretary whose dream job is being automated away, a dream dreamt from a young age. The journalist whose value has been substituted by a white text box connected to an AI model.
There are open source models and these will continue to keep abreast of new features. On device only models are likely to be available too. Both will be good enough especially for consumer use cases. Importantly it is not corporations alone that have access to AI. I for-see whole countries releasing their versions in an open source fashion and much more. After all you can't stop people applying linear algebra ;-)
There doesn't appear to be a moat for these organisations. HN users mention hopping from model to model like rabbits. The core mechanic is interchangeable.
There is a 'barrier to entry' of sorts that does exert some pressure or centralisation particularly at scale. It conveniently aligns well for large corporations and it is that GPU's are expensive and AI requires a lot of processing power. But it isn't the core issue.
I do not believe this is the main reason at all.
The core issue is that AI is taking away, or will take away, or threatens to take away, experiences and activities that humans would WANT to do. Things that give them meaning and many of these are tied to earning money and producing value for doing just that thing. As someone said "I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing, not for AI to do my art and writing so that I can do my laundry and dishes".
Much of the meaning we humans derive from work is tied to the value it provides to society. One can do coding for fun but doing the same coding where it provides value to others/society is far more meaningful.
Presently some may say: AI is amazing I am much more productive, AI is just a tool or that AI empowers me. The irony is that this in itself shows the deficiency of AI. It demonstrates that AI is not yet powerful enough to NOT need to empower you to NOT need to make you more productive. Ultimately AI aims to remove the need for a human intermediary altogether that is the AI holy grail. Everything in between is just a stop along the way and so for those it empowers stop and think a little about the long term implications. It may be that for you right now it is comfortable position financially or socially but your future you in just a few short months may be dramatically impacted.
I can well imagine the blood draining from peoples faces, the graduate coder who can no longer get on the job ladder. The law secretary whose dream job is being automated away, a dream dreamt from a young age. The journalist whose value has been substituted by a white text box connected to an AI model.
To give a quick example vis-a-vis LLM's: I can reason and understand well enough without having to be 'trained' on near the entire corpus of human literary. LLM's of course do not reason or understand and their output is determined by human input. That alone indicates our minds work differently to LLM's.
I wonder how ChatGPT would fair if it were trained on birdsong and then asked for a rhyming couplet?