ed_balls

Argument for Russia: https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1574820287161384960

There is Yamal, Brotherhood and Turk Stream - more than enough capacity. I don't think anyone is willing to buy more than 10% from Russian, ever. It's too risky. China is keeping it under 15%.

by deniability I mean that you cannot be sure if this is Russia, USA or someone else. If you use depth charges, they explode in certain way and leave some debris which say "this was XXX bomb so must be Russia/USA".

This is sabotage for sure.

> patrol boat dropping some depth charges on a time delay in the middle of the night

That's also an option, but you would have problems with precision and deniability*.

You could use some WW2 style device and blame it on German mines that are still present.

Poland has an ideal device for this sabotage

https://www.gospodarkamorska.pl/zdjecia/artykul/25081/135779...

This is really interesting. Russia knows (if we didn't do it then must be USA), USA knows (if we didn't do it then must be Russia). Germany would never know, but now they are fully dependent on Poland, Ukraine or US Navy for their energy needs.

Similar thing has happened on USA soil (Gas Terminal explosion)

> Sabotage makes sense, but by whom?

President Biden on Nord Stream 2 Pipeline if Russia Invades Ukraine: "We will bring an end to it."

Initially I thought it's a mistake. Russian company took over the German one after the sanctions on NS2, so they could screw something up, but there are too many leaks. It's 100% sabotage.

> Meanwhile European powers don't seem to have an incentive

Poland, Belarus have. Yamal is becoming critical as well as Brotherhood (Ukraine).

> That would leave Europe's non-Russian suppliers of natural gas: Norway and the US.

Algeria, Azerbaijan, Canada, UEA, Qatar etc.

What is more US slave economy was worse. In Roman times you can become free. It was common for slaves to be paid wages, treated well, and given their freedom.

> How did a blockade around Taiwan turn into a global maritime halt?

Not a halt but increase of costs. 2/3 of world trade is near Taiwan. The insurance premiums will skyrocket. USA aka World Police will be busy with China, which will lead to tensions in other places and piracy. Business will pick rail if it's a bit more expensive (say 20%) and you get products faster.

> Geopolitics pits Germany and Moscow as geopolitical rival

Only when the land between Moscow and Berlin is subjected to either state (division of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact)

> As for land transport becoming more efficient than ocean, that’s a pipe dream

I don't remember exact numbers from 2019, but it was something like:

Air: 1 metric tonne: $100, 24h

Rail: $40; 10 days

Ship: $8; 30 days

Let's say it's 2049 and we have 4 powers: new Europe, USA, China and India. China starts the full scale blockade of Taiwan to wait for the USA for the kinetic escalation. Only USA ships are blocked, so Japan, Korea, Europe do nothing. The situation last for years. The freight cost goes up massively due to risk, the fuel is 2x-3x more expensive - cheap oil is gone and the last big reserve is in Arctic. Magnetic rail China-Europe is finished and you stack up 3 containers which are delivered in 48h. Land transportation became better than ships.

> Rail is also less resilient in times of war

True, but the new Europe will be neutral is the USA-China conflict.

> Xi’s strategic fuckup has been in failing to see that China, too, could command a Leviathan

I don't think Xi made a mistake. I don't think we have a reliable data from China. China started shrinking due to Covid way sooner that the models predicted. The official number about 12 mln births, but that doesn't correlate well with mandatory tuberculosis vaccinations. The real number could be 9 mln. Xi perception might be he has 10 years not 30. What is more, I think China is like Japan in 1930. From China's perspective there is no option - we fight or we die.

The more optimistic scenario: Xi is gone. USA makes Kissinger 2.0 - a deal that must be secret. USA does nothing and China takes over Taiwan without the invasion. North and South Korea is demilitarised. China still uses USD.

> the deck looks stacked against a Beijing-Moscow-Berlin

As of this movement, yes, but in the future USA won't be able to keep the hegemony. Right now there is a leverage on energy (oil and gas from middle east) and the cheapest from of transportation (maritime). USA can block both via Ormuz and Malacca. In 20-30 years China and Europe will be energy and resource independent. If land transportation* will be more cost effective than ships, USA hegemony is gone.

*hyperloop/magnetic rail/other

I haven't said that. They want to go back to status quo ante, hence "French President Emmanuel Macron has sparked a new wave of criticism and incomprehension over his calls to avoid humiliating Russia in Ukraine"

Also, that's the reason why Germany was relying on gas from Russia. They are not idiots. It was not a stupid single point of failure, but geopolitics.

Ukraine has a large deposit of uranium as well.

Because of geopolitics, the rest is just hypocrisy. Germany and France wanted to build the Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok with help from Russia. That new Europe would became a 3rd power (after US and China) It's a good match. They can get cheap resources from Russia, manufacturing can be move from China to Siberia where pollution is not a big problem. Russia would balance China, so no need for massive military spending. USA could be pushed out of Europe.

It would guarantee future for Russia. Right now 50% of Russian budged is from carbohydrates. Due to fracking and decarbonisation it won't be profitable to mine in Russia in 15 years[1]. Without that income, states like Chechnya, are gonna try to leave the federation.

It's good for China as well, since USA sanctions would not be that effective.

The Atlantic world doesn't want the 3rd power (hence USA and UK are helping a lot in Ukraine) as well as Central European countries (Poland, Ukraine, Baltic states etc.) The table that shows military aid by GDP is an eye opener.

[1] Gas and oil from Ukrainian shores (Crimea) could speed it up.

The military application would be quite interesting. Nuclear powered aircraft carrier has abundant energy which could be used to produce jet fuel. It would simplify the logistics, which is critical in the times of war.

for river shipping it would be better to have a train like traction system. It could be only placed on the one side of the river when you go upstream. Batteries would do the job for docking and going downstream. Similar to https://www.electronicdesign.com/markets/automotive/article/...

The question is how warranty and insurance be impacted by it.

> really wanted to make a difference

most people don't care, they won't move for that. But Covid/Remote work/housing is pushing them, hence Rep. went all-in.

Some voters may, but the main goal is to manage society.

It's a perfect replacement subject for income inequality, debate about guns, foreign policy like isolationist movement.

Because of the electoral system, Republicans in Texas had a big issue with immigrations from "blue states" - they could loose it forever. This is an existential threat for them - first fight was Heartbeat bill. Now they have a perfect tool to slow down the process or even reverse it.

> Nuclear isn't commercially viable in energy markets with very high levels of variable renewable energy

True for cost per Watt, but there are other factors. A good replacement for burning fossil fuels is solar + batteries, which is more expensive right now. Even if batteries get cheap, you still have to protect yourself from black swan events e.g. volcano eruption which hides the sun. Also, it seems Australia would need nuclear weapons to protect its independence in the future. It's critical to have nuclear experts at home.

The average ago of nurses went from 46 to 55 in my country. The current retirement age is 60.

https://soketi.app/ <- looking into this option Pusher https://pusher.com/tutorials/how-to-build-a-chat-app-with-vu... https://matrix.org/sdks/#matrix-org-js-sdk https://element.io/solutions https://github.com/Azure-Samples/communication-services-java...

> Australia tried this with tragic results

It's the opposite, worked like charm. Your main voting base, powerful people, developers, banks want price of properties to increase.

You can use this approach http://lukasz-madon.github.io/Password-management/

Can you not say that "this macbook and that car are company's property" and fulfil the capital requirement? the minimal capital in Poland is 5000PLN(1100EUR) and you just buy a laptop.

Looking from the distance with very little information I can't comprehend the decisions that Hungary has made. Russian are a single point of failure. If there is a collapse or civil war in Russia, Hungary's energy sector is doomed (multiple Russian nuclear reactor, gas, oil, coal). Even now, there is a risk of blockade, carbon tax from Russia.

It does look like a corruption?

The title is misleading. 280 armoured vehicles. 93% sounds like a propaganda number.

Good active protection system can get this number to a single digit e.g. Merkava thropy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRJzcM5ETY4

I'd bet my money on corruption. They told the soldiers it would be a fast thing like an exercise. In that case I can burn more fuel to keep me warm, sell 1/5 to a local farmer. Old food rations? They are fine for a few more years. I can pocket the money.