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dragontamer

31,950 karma · joined January 19, 2013

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dragontamer··on Taxi drivers rarely die of Alzheimer's
Maybe when played at a high level. But too many games are too casual without much mental effort.

I mean, they should be. Games are for fun, not for work.

dragontamer··on Commodification of Intelligence: Good, Bad, and Ugly Circular AI Deals
Cash/dollars with respect to 10Y Bonds, Stocks, or other instruments.

When Cash becomes king, for whatever reason, it behooves the economy to sell of all other assets and buy Cash.

The closer to cash you get (1Y high grade commercial paper, 1Y Treasury, 3M Treasury, 1 month commercial paper, money market, savings account, dollars under a mattress...), the better you deal with such circumstances.

dragontamer··on Commodification of Intelligence: Good, Bad, and Ugly Circular AI Deals
A recession is a cash/dollar bubble.

First cash/dollars are considered bad so they collapse in price. When the psychology shifts, suddenly the dollar climbs in value and itself bubbles over, causing a recession.

dragontamer··on Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
Matt Levine doesn't talk about what's good in finance. Matt Levine talks about what's bad in finance. Very consistently.

If you think that Matt Levine is making something sound sensible, you probably are falling for his dry sense of ironic writing.

dragontamer··on Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
> someone else.

> Cite better skeptics!

You are welcome to share any that you know.

dragontamer··on Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
For all of Zitrons faults, he has workable numbers that a can be used and cited in arguments.
dragontamer··on Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
And I'm sure Galileo didn't like the idea of geocentrinism either for irrational reasons. Seriously, good enough telescopes havent been made yet and he's all confident etc. etc.

But Galileo was still had a useful framework for his criticisms despite all of his faults.

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I see Ed Zitron in virtually the same spot. Especially now that the SPVs thing is publicly confirmed by 3rd parties. I agree he made a bunch of shitty arguments over the years but Ed Zitron has seemingly stumbled upon something true and worth investigating now

dragontamer··on Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
It all comes down to the fact that Zitron thinks these AI companies are over levered and have significant chances of collapsing industry wide.

Yeah he uses more words to say it and bad arguments as part of it. But so did Galileo's "The tides prove that the Earth is moving around the sun" argument. Some arguments are bad, even if the overall point was correct.

I think given the new Nikkei report from last week, we are seeing more and more of Ed Zitrons arguments bear fruit, after years (literally) of him calling wolf.

It all is crazy talk until real numbers come out and prove him correct. But it seems to take a long time for those numbers to materialize.

dragontamer··on Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
I thought Ed Zitrons argument was just corroborated by Nikkei last Friday with the new report that 1.6 Trillion in SPVs accounts for off-books debt, on top of the $1.4 Trillion of on-books debt that's in these AI companies?

The main argument of Ed Zitron is just that. Huge huge amounts of debt that's due "soonish". Every SPV is different but we are fast approaching the point where this all starts to become real.

Now I dunno why Ed Zitron feels the need to write 10,000++++ word articles that only says "more leverage than people expect", but that's really the crux of things.

dragontamer··on Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
In practice?

To Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg. Who have crafted companies who have virtually no voting rights but get purchased up by the masses through passive index funds.

dragontamer··on Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
Reread what I wrote.

More money is in passive now than active. On a dollar basis, there are fewer votes purchased dollar for dollar.

Even then, active funds don't always offer proxy vote services so I'm not sure wtf active has to do with my original point: that investors today don't seem to give a rats ass about the vote.

dragontamer··on Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
You do realize that passive funds have more money than active funds today, right?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/passive-etfs-hit-tipping-poin...

Sometime last year, passive funds overtook active funds.

dragontamer··on Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
What 401k program do you or your peers have that allows you to buy funds outside of the few, selected by the 401k manager?

I certainly can't buy individual shares in my 401k program. And very, very few programs I'm aware of ever offered that as an option.

dragontamer··on Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
I'm not saying I like this turn of events.

I'm saying it's how the world works. The majority of pension funds (public or private) and 401k plans are simply passive index funds with nearly no direct voting rights (and at best very limited, indirect voting rights).

dragontamer··on Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
Could you explain to me how an investor owning SPY shares gets to control the proxy vote?

Oh, don't worry. I already know the answer. I'm asking if YOU can tell me the answer.

dragontamer··on Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
The typical "investor" is an ETF these days.

Your standard SPY or VTI investor doesn't know jack diddly squat about shareholder rights, nor do they ever plan to invoke them.

dragontamer··on How the God of Israel Was Born
I'll admit that my only understanding of Gnostics are the random anime references to the Demiurge or other Gnostic concepts (and nearby Wikipedia pages). It is an utterly fascinating viewpoint of the early church and the different ideas circa the 1st and 2nd century AD.

It's important for any Catholic to study that IMO, and what led us towards the Nicene Creed / council of Nicaea. So it's definitely on my todo list of historical facts to look up.

And point on the Genesis ideas like original sin. We do take from Genesis just not as much as some other churches.

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The debate and back and forth of the Gnostics with regards to the nature of God, Jesus, and the Holy Spirit are hugely important and the very reason why the Creed was created in the first place.

So much Catholic tradition is a continuation of the decisions of our early leaders recorded in the 300s AD and onward. (And the big gap between 30 AD when Jesus likely died and 300ish AD is simply oral traditions and barely written down outside of the Gospel and Paul's letters.)

dragontamer··on How the God of Israel Was Born
Catholic here.

We don't actually place that much emphasis on Genesis or the Bible in general. A lot of Catholic traditions are outside of the books: the sacraments, the assumption of Mary, the Apostles and their connection to the Bishops (and Bishop of Rome/The Pope), etc. etc.

Some Christians overemphasize the written word of the Bible. But just gonna toss this out: Biblical Literalism is not part of the Catholic tradition. It simply cannot be, as many important traditions were never written down at that time.

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The importance of the Torah is that Jesus was born as a Hebrew, so understanding his religion helps us understand the life he lived. As well as the prophesies he fulfilled.

But in terms of story? It's all an allegory or metaphor. Catholics are generally comfortable with saying that, ex evolution exists, even if it's not part of the book of Genesis.

dragontamer··on Startup founders urge Trump not to shut off Chinese open weight AI
Because they used a pirating website to get the material and stored them on their servers for personal use.

The AI training part of the court case was deemed fair use.

dragontamer··on Who Is America's Homer?
Counter point: the opening song of Beauty and the Beast starts with "Bonjour".

Basil of Baker Street (Great Mouse Detective) literally saves the Queen of England.

Robin Hood and The Sword in the Stone are also similarly very, very British. No one can possibly confuse the issue.

dragontamer··on Codex is wearing out our devices
Those Teslas were controller-less SSDs IIRC, common in the cheap embedded world.

Modern proper SSDs for computers do their best to spread out the writes (TRIM, and other features). They still wear out of course, nothing can beat physics. But if you buy a 2TB drive, there's a lot of room to spread out the write cycles that a normal user probably never has to worry about (no normal user is going to hit 500TBs of writes that breaks a modern 2TB SSD write balancing algorithm)

But it probably should be noted that embedded controller-free SSDs have significant write amplification issues. Embedded systems assumed you were trying to save money and/or compute... and also assumed you didn't do too many writes. So they really weren't designed for the write cycles that Teslas logging system did.

dragontamer··on Who Is America's Homer?
What work of Disney (company, not the man per se...) is more influential on the modern American Psyche (today, in 2026) than Ironman, X-Men or Spiderman?

Moana? Sleeping Beauty? Mickey Mouse?

The only major "American identity" film I can think of was Princess and the Frog. Maybe Big Hero 6 (at least the San Francisco half).

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The others are correct in that Mark Twain is probably the real answer. But I'm thinking of a modern media (film, comic books, etc. etc).

Maybe Wicked and Wizard of Oz counts as two sides of American culture. A push and counter push.

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Sleeping Beauty? That's French. Beauty and the Beast? Also French.

Great Mouse Detective? British. Alice in Wonderland? British.

Pinocchio? Italian.

dragontamer··on Who Is America's Homer?
Its not like Walt Disney personally wrote or drew all his stuff either. Stan Lee was closer to actually making the story than Walt Disney.

But yeah, Jack Kirby would be closer than the other two.

dragontamer··on Who Is America's Homer?
Stan Lee probably had more influence than Walt Disney in terms of how Americans see themselves and how people around the world sees us.

Walt Disney is overwhelmingly about older stories (Cinderella, Snow White, Sleeping Beauty), and not anything I feel distinctly "American".

The most popular and timeless properties out of Disney (ex: Mickey Mouse) aren't really telling stories or setting cultural trends IMO. Meanwhile, Superman and Spiderman (Okay, I know Stan Lee only partially had influence on Spiderman...) are closer to what people see as distinctly "American".

dragontamer··on Scrying the AMD GFX1250 LLVM Tea Leaves
wait/arrive seems obvious to me. So I'll talk about that... As a synchronization primitive, its very useful for things like:

    parallel_memset(data, 0); // The 1024 threads go off and, in parallel + some efficient manner, initialize the datastructure
    barrier(); // wait for all 1024 threads to reach here before continuing.
    do_stuff(); // This probably relies on all default data being set before starting
I don't know what a "cluster" is, but its clearly some new subdivision of threads (aside from wavefront, group, block, grid, etc. etc.). Because locking is so inefficient on GPUs, you probably want to use barriers in the typical case.

Cluster arrive + Cluster wait allow for you to split the barrier into two units. Maybe the first half of a loop must be synchronized, but there's "spare extra work" you can do before calling wait(). This likely makes threading smoother.

    parallel_memset(data, 0); // The 1024 threads go off and, in parallel + some efficient manner, initialize the datastructure
    arrive();
    do_spare_work(); // some extra work before checking for a wait
    wait(); // We ran out of main work + spare work, so now we must fully stop and wait
    do_stuff(); // This probably relies on all default data being set before starting
This is likely more efficient for a number of algorithms than a singular barrier.

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As far as the L2 cache thing specifically: I don't know.

dragontamer··on Scrying the AMD GFX1250 LLVM Tea Leaves
GPUs are absurdly SMT. Like 8 threads or 10 threads (or tracked instruction pointers) per hardware instruction execution unit (for AMD, the Workgroup Processor, WGP)

I have to imagine that some kind of queue or data structure would benefit from this information. Especially with server GPU tasks staying resident inside of a WGP for literally hours at a time.

dragontamer··on The state of open source AI
No. Keep Panagram a bit of a secret weapon. The minute Panagram becomes a metric the minute it becomes useless and we have to use something else.
dragontamer··on Short sellers notch $8.7B profit as SpaceX shares dip to IPO price
Because SpaceX bought xAI/Twitter.

All of the losses are from the xAI/Twitter side of the house. And Elon Musk needs a flimsy story so that no one sues him. It doesnt have to be a believable story, it just needs to be enough so that no lawyer cares to bring a case in Texas vs SpaceX and Elon for breach of fiduciary duty.

The story did its job. Elon offloaded the money losing Twitter/xAI out of his personal wealth and onto the public through SpaceX. Done and done. SpaceX is now an AI company (or contains one) and needs to perform as such.

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It's literally the same story as Tesla/Solar City. Make up bullshit about solar panel synergy with EVs and buy out his cousins failing company. Make it TSLA shareholders problem for figuring out how to make a profit from the failing company, it's no longer Kimball Musks concern since the buyout

dragontamer··on SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status
> The directors with of such [joint-stock] companies, however, being the managers rather of other people's money than of their own, it cannot well be expected, that they should watch over it with the same anxious vigilance with which the partners in a private copartnery frequently watch over their own

Adam Smith, the Wealth of Nations

dragontamer··on Cyberpunk Comics, Manga and Graphic Novels
Yeah, back in my day there were Elves, not Vulcans. There were Orcs , not Klingons.
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