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3,237 karma · joined May 3, 2018

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docker_up··on No More Cheap Shipping for Chinese Sellers
No. The 15 largest cargo ships produce more pollution than all the cars in the world combined.

http://www.industrytap.com/worlds-15-biggest-ships-create-mo...

docker_up··on Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity
The purchase of SolarCity by Tesla was the single dumbest thing Elon Musk did and it has dire consequences for Tesla the car company. Shareholders definitely have a great chance to sue Musk because he did not do this in the best interest of his shareholders, it's in the best interest of his cousin. Co-mingling all parts of his companies (SpaceX buying SolarCity Bonds) is a huge red flag that reeks of corporate malfeasance. He should have let SolarCity die, it would have come back as a stronger company once the initial investors were wiped out.
docker_up··on China Hits U.S. With Higher Tariffs on Soybeans, Cars, Oil
To be clear, I didn't mean that gas prices were affected by the tariffs. Just that I noticed gas prices more than I notice any other changes in price since the tariffs have gone in place.
docker_up··on China Hits U.S. With Higher Tariffs on Soybeans, Cars, Oil
I'll be perfectly honest and haven't felt the tariffs one bit. I couldn't tell you one aspect of my life that has been affected. I see gas prices fluctuate drastically but nothing else seems to have been affected as far as I can tell.
docker_up··on Amazon has proven unable or unwilling to effectively police third-party sellers
Already this year the number of purchases I've made is cut in half from last year. I've gotten burned with too many poor 3rd party sellers. They are so greedy for the short term revenues they don't realize that us "idiots" are starting to lost trust in their system, and if that happens at a large scale, their business will collapse.
docker_up··on Splunk acquires cloud monitoring service SignalFx for $1.05B
I worked at a YC startup. I was employee #35-40, the company got bought out, I made about $80k from my options over 4 years, two cofounders probably made at least $50M each.

Overall, it wasn't worth it. To make life changing amount, you need to join a company where the market cap goes to $10B+, but even then a Google employee probably would make more overall and with greater reliability than most startups.

docker_up··on Germany for First Time Sells 30-Year Bonds Offering Negative Yields
Where can I put my money to take advantage of this? Gold? or just US treasuries?
docker_up··on The WeWork IPO
The biggest repercussion I see is many, many companies goes belly up all at the same time, with lots of unemployment and a massive shock to the economy.

Companies going bankrupt happen all the time, but if their demise is prevented because they keep getting capital injections from Softbank, then once there's a systemic event so big that they can't get their next infusion, then they will all go bankrupt in one fell swoop with a bunch of companies going bankrupt, the companies providing those companies services going bankrupt, hundreds of thousands out of jobs, etc.

Imagine if WeWork went bankrupt right now. All their employees would be fired, and all the companies that provide services (catering, janitorial, Salesforce? AWS/GCP? etc) would layoff those employees. The bankruptcy trustees would be making a mad dash to try to sell their assets before the markets collapsed, depressing the markets.

This is obviously a worst case scenario but that's what basically happened during the dotcom bust.

docker_up··on The WeWork IPO
I lived through the dot-com bust. In Silicon Valley, there were scores of "technology parks" that were completely abandoned for years afterwards when the bust hit.

This is a company that can thrive in a Fed-fueled ZIRP economy that only goes up. If we don't dip into recession and keep growing for the next 15 years, this company will be genius.

But if there's ever a stumble in the road, it's also the type of company that immediately collapses on itself.

I also can't stress enough how detrimental Softbank has been and will be to Silicon Valley. They are dumping billions into companies that have no business being alive and if/when the econonmy collapses, it's going to be bad for the entire world. It's like preventing forest fires that clean up dead brush and instead sets up for a huge uncontrollable forest fire.

I'm personally trying to figure out how to protect myself, whether it's through buying US Treasuries, or gold or diversifying my cash in various currencies. But personally I don't think the fund is going to survive and there will be terrible repercussions from it.

docker_up··on Time to Get Serious about Tick-Borne Diseases
Aside from Lyme disease, I'm also personally concerned about Chronic Wasting Disease. We have deer on our property all the time and all they do is shit and piss everywhere.

This appears to be the deer-form of Mad Cow Disease and apparently the prions in the feces can be spread even after it goes into the ground and in the plants that grow from it afterwards.

docker_up··on Alphabet overtakes Apple to become most cash-rich company
Google has already created inflation from their stock price. The houses in the Bay Area have doubled in 5 years precisely because FANG engineers have had their shares skyrocket 6-10x, so they buy multiple houses.
docker_up··on U.S. to set up plan aimed at allowing prescription drugs from Canada
All this will do, unfortunately, is cause drug companies to raise prices in Canada. There's no way that drug companies will allows this loss of revenues from the US.
docker_up··on The Beginning of the End of the Beef Industry?
I had a Beyond Meat burger recently. It was pretty good, about as good as a below-average to average burger, but more tender. Overall, if this is all they served at the cafeteria, it would be okay.

That said, it wasn't nearly good enough for me to buy instead of meat. Maybe the day will come where it will be, but definitely not yet.

docker_up··on High-performance, exactly-once, failure-oblivious distributed programming (2018)
Kafka exactly-once semantics is just that, they are "semantics".

What Kafka supports is exactly-once processing which has been supported in other stream processing frameworks such as Apache Storm years before Confluent's marketing. Duplicates are possible in Kafka with the current implementation of exactly-once, if one uses Kafka's consumer api it will de-dedupe on the processing side.

So no, there is no such thing as exactly-once in distributed systems.

docker_up··on High-performance, exactly-once, failure-oblivious distributed programming (2018)
This is what I've been told as well from distributed systems experts. It's more "exactly-once most of the time" but believing that it will always be exactly once in all failure situations is delusional.
docker_up··on Brief thoughts on getting hired as a senior coder
Frankly, he doesn't sound like someone I would like to work with. The attitude he exudes in his blog post reeks of entitlement and probably likes to argue a lot instead of having discussions. As someone else put it, he sounds far too emotional and definitely not level-headed, especially after his response to the CTO, admittedly who was also a jerk. More level-headed people would just ignore the email and not respond, but it sounds like he wanted to get his last word in, which is an annoying trait in someone to work with.
docker_up··on Lock-free multithreading with atomic operations
It's not a misnomer.

Back in the day, I wanted to implement a cache in our software product that used reference counting to update objects and when the object went to 0, free it from the cache. Pretty straightforward, no rocket science, but this was also cross-platform including Solaris, HP-UX, etc.

This was easy to do on Windows/Intel because they implemented a native CAS at the time (almost 20 years ago now), but the other systems didn't. The only way would be to add a mutex per object, which was a non-starter because it used real kernel memory and resources, so I had to abandon the feature entirely.

The above is truly lock-free because it doesn't require any additional resources that have to be tracked or freed.

docker_up··on Humans Will Never Colonize Mars
I mean, I think it's fairly obvious that we will never be able to colonize Mars perfectly. It would require constantly sending massive amount of supplies from Earth to Mars.

The atmosphere is too thin, and the planet itself is too small to maintain a real atmosphere. Even if we terraformed it using science fiction technology, most of the atmosphere would escape into space so it would require constantly producing this atmosphere, requiring a lot of off-planet resources, which is fundamentally impossible.

In addition, the lack of strong magnetic fields and Van Allen belts means that cosmic rays would kill everything eventually.

docker_up··on You’re Paying into a Broken System Whenever You Buy Something on iOS
Sorry, but the blog post is a hard sell. It's obviously from an app developer that would prefer not to jump through the hoops of the App Store, but as a customer, I like it.

It's not perfect but it appears to be much, much better than Google version.

What I don't like is the limited app discovery, and the bad rules in terms of apps just taking names and causing a lot of confusion so that I'm not sure if that's the app I really want to install.

docker_up··on No CS Degree – Interviews with self-taught developers
I work with a twenty-something year old right now. He graduated from high school. Had his own non-tech company for a while after high school. Decided he wanted to go into coding. One of the best damn coders I've worked with in 25 years. Gives the toughest, most consistent code reviews. He's the type of programmer you can build a startup around.

In another comment a few days ago, I mentioned a 10x engineer I knew. Graduated from high school. Went into the military. Came out and coded. He is the best coder I've worked with.

College education is not necessary to be a successful programmer. You do need to have some predisposition to coding, but you definitely don't need a degree.

docker_up··on 'It's a crisis': Facebook kitchen staff work multiple jobs to get by
The truth is that the only way to increase wages is to protest or to quit their jobs en masse so I support these workers protesting. The problem with low-skilled jobs is that there's probably someone waiting to take their job at $23/hr, but that's how the system works and unfortunately low-skilled jobs don't have a tremendous amount of value. This is the counter argument to allowing illegal immigrants - they are more willing to take these low-skilled jobs and to suppress wages much longer.
docker_up··on Amazon Accidentally Sold $13k Camera Gear for $100 on Prime Day
This is an unintentional by-product of shipping so quickly. As Amazon moves to quicker and quicker shipping policies, it means that errors like this can't be reversed in time.

I would imagine that Amazon could threaten to close the customer's account if they refused to return the camera equipment but that might be a bit extreme and might be very bad press.

docker_up··on Thiel Urges U.S. Probe of Google's 'Seemingly Treasonous' Acts
I find it hard to believe that there AREN'T droves of spies from every single country working at Google, Facebook, Apple, etc. If there aren't, they're not doing their jobs.
docker_up··on Hit by Big Loss, Bird Seeks $300M in New Funds
No that's not what I said. I said the only way it unlocks a new market is if there is guaranteed availability, which is functionally impossible. It doesn't take much effort to show that if the scooters start from an area that is very useful, then end up in random locations around the city, and once they are in an unuseful location, they stop getting revenue. And even worse there's the additional cost of getting them charged and then picked up overnight and redistributed by hand.

You need to flood the market with scooters so that people get scooters when they want it but cities won't allow it. Plus, it's cost prohibitive. Creating a new market is NOT a solvable problem, especially at the scale of funding that they have received. You can't throw a billion dollars and expect that a new market will create itself. That's why Bird is going to die, probably by the end of 2020.

docker_up··on Hit by Big Loss, Bird Seeks $300M in New Funds
If there were a scooter every single time I wanted to use a scooter, then it would make sense. But that's not reality. The reality is that trying to get a scooter is haphazard at best.

You need to walk around and find one. And during rush hour, it won't be at the Caltrain station because they're already taken and distributed around the city.

It's clear as day that there's no way this is going to work at scale in order to justify a multi-billion dollar business.

docker_up··on Hit by Big Loss, Bird Seeks $300M in New Funds
Their primary business is unavailable to them for half the year in most of the world because of weather, and half of the day. How is this multi-billion dollar business, if they already have 700M in funding and they want another 300M?
docker_up··on Hit by Big Loss, Bird Seeks $300M in New Funds
VCs are generally greedy and stupid at the same time. They follow the herd more than any other industry. The fact they invest in something means little as to how savvy they are or how successful the product will be. 90% of all startups fail, and there have been plenty of spectacular implosions in the past and there will be plenty of spectacular implosions in the future. Bird will be the WebVan of this business cycle.
docker_up··on Hit by Big Loss, Bird Seeks $300M in New Funds
Bird scooters is a completely unviable business. It lacks revenues during the rain and winter and when it's dark. One user using it for an hour completely drains the battery and it's unusable until someone picks it up and charges it. It needs to be redistributed every night to popular locations which causes even more cost. As well, damage to electric scooters is almost at a sport-like level now.

The only way they can make it more cost beneficial is if they charge less if the rider drops off their scooters at a charging station and higher costs if they just dump the scooter anywhere. But that is more costs for Bird.

Second is if they franchise out the business to "entrepreneurs" that handle things for them and they just concentrate on the app. But that's not a multi-billion dollar business.

There is no path where Bird becomes a viable business that grows into its absurd valuation.

docker_up··on Sugary drinks and cancer risk: results from NutriNet-Santé prospective cohort
Thanks but it's far from impressive. It's been years. I've gone back and forth and did no-carb a few times (lost 30 lbs once and then fell off the wagon) which helped me break the habit. But then someone stressful would occur and I was back to 1-2 Cokes a day for a while.

Finally I scared myself enough that sugar drinks cause pancreatic cancer (no evidence but I'm still scared) and high fructose corn syrup causes fatty liver disease, which I actually do have, which in turn can lead to cirrhosis and/or liver cancer.

From that I basically scared myself straight. I started drinking a lot of unsweetened tea actually, and then substituted a little sweet tea for Coke. Eventually I've just broken the habit of drinking Coke every day and drinking tea instead and these days a lot of water as well.

docker_up··on Sugary drinks and cancer risk: results from NutriNet-Santé prospective cohort
Orange juice from the grocery store isn't fresh. It's squeezed, then boiled until it's white, with orange dye added. Sugar and flavor packets are added to it.

Truly fresh, unpasteurized orange juice only lasts a few days.

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