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dnadler

643 karma · joined February 23, 2016

dan@thetortoise.io
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dnadler··on A meteor or alien tech: Harvard professor plans UFO expedition
My understanding is that anything heavier than iron is made by supernovae, so the same could be said of the majority of elements.
dnadler··on Goat Rental – Hire Goats
I think the bit about it being a "farm where they eat them" is the key point.

If the person returning it knows that, then sure. The OP implied pretty heavily that they don't know the ultimate fate of the rabbits.

As far as these people know its "A farm where they sell breed and sell rabbits as pets", not a farm that raises them for meat.

dnadler··on Goat Rental – Hire Goats
The situation implies that the person selling the rabbits as pets would attempt to rehome them or care for them as pets.

There's a difference between being technically correct, and being moral. While the language used is technically correct for the situation, omitting the information about where the rabbits end up is immoral.

Clearly OP understands that if the whole truth was told, they wouldn't be getting a free source of rabbit meat...

dnadler··on Federal Reserve raises rates by 0.75%
Good point - that's all true. Another important point is that the principal has also been impacted by inflation and the amount that needs to be rolled is less than the initial bond in real terms.
dnadler··on Federal Reserve raises rates by 0.75%
Something I haven’t seen discussed much is the impact of inflation on the existing federal debt.

This is actually a positive for taxpayers as the federal debt will become cheaper. Obviously we’re still spending a ton and are issuing debt at higher rates now, so it’s not some kind of magic cure or anything.

dnadler··on Amazon Partially Down
Well, to address the costs issue, you could run hot-hot and have half of your resources on each provider, and in the event of failure, scale the functioning one up to meet demand. That's obviously a decent amount of effort to set up, though.
dnadler··on Amazon Partially Down
Yes definitely, what I meant is that I would probably use AWS as a fallback for my basement, or maybe the other way around. I didn't make that clear at all.
dnadler··on Amazon Partially Down
I just recently published a project and had been mulling over whether I should move it to AWS or keep hosting it on the server in my basement...

Seems like I made the right choice!

In all seriousness, I don't think I'd rely on a single provider for anything these days, unless I really don't care when it goes down. That's pretty easy and cheap to do with most things, but I'm not quite sure how to approach a backup database in an economical way.

dnadler··on Show HN: The Tortoise – a sophisticated retirement calculator
A couple questions if you have a minute:

1. Did you load the example scenario and run that?

2. If not, try checking that the fields in the Market & Portfolio tab are all filled out, or set it to "Automatic Weights".

I see a few errors relating to validation on that page, so that seems like the most likely culprit.

I'll work on some better messaging for that particular error as well. In the meantime, I've updated the defaults to use the automatic weights, so that should be less common for new users.

dnadler··on Show HN: The Tortoise – a sophisticated retirement calculator
Thanks for the report, I'll take a look. My form validation is lacking a bit, so it may be that a field isn't filled out, but it's not giving you a useful message...
dnadler··on Useful Python decorators for data scientists
I'd imagine it's just a try/except wrapper with a funny name.
dnadler··on Robinhood reports 43% revenue decline
I don't know that I'd lay the blame at retail traders not being sophisticated enough to understand this. I'd lay the blame with the company that had such poor risk controls that they allowed this to happen in the first place.
dnadler··on [dead]
Part of what would make it a bubble is what it means for the bubble to pop. I see housing as creating a very strong headwind for many (most?) people, but I don't necessarily see a bubble.

Similar to student debt. It's a strong headwind, but not everything that's bad in economics is a "bubble".

dnadler··on The Great Steepening
Yields go down, prices go up.
dnadler··on Please put units in names
The test could simply mock the default value to something reasonable like '.1 seconds' and test that duration instead, so I don't think this is a real problem.
dnadler··on Defensive tactics from the modern history of urban warfare
There's also a good chapter on urban defense in there. Chapter 5
dnadler··on Anti-work subreddit goes private after rough Fox News interview
Well, yes, people find the work in your examples valuable. I can say that for sure because they are willing to spend their money on it.

> Sure.

Ha, then the farmers would say "no" and you'd starve to death?

dnadler··on Nearly 1k mysterious strands revealed in Milky Way’s center
The CMB is fairly uniform in all directions whereas this beam would appear very red/blue shifted depending on the direction you look.
dnadler··on Anti-work subreddit goes private after rough Fox News interview
I would counter by saying that entertainment is actually valuable. Gambling and playing games are things that people choose to spend their time and money doing because they are fun. (Obviously taking advantages of addiction is immoral, but that’s a whole other bag of worms).

As for optimizing trading algos, the counter is that making markets more efficient is also valuable to society at large, and that is what most quants would say they are doing.

As you pointed out in some other comments, there are certainly issues with the current system. Though, I don’t think the conclusion is for people to stop working entirely. If that were the case all of these “useless” jobs would go away and we would then ask farmers to give us food in exchange for nothing at all?

I think what might be better is offering more incentives for people to work in industries that make a real positive impact on the world. And in lieu of that, people who feel they aren’t contributing in a meaningful way can try to seek out more meaningful work. And we as a society should support *that*.

dnadler··on Anti-work subreddit goes private after rough Fox News interview
I think what most people are saying is that if you're not working to feed yourself, then someone else is. And further, it's not fair to ask society to pick up the slack for people who could contribute, but choose not to.

In other words: by saying you shouldn't starve for refusing to work, aren't you also saying that someone else should grow your food for you for free?

dnadler··on UBS Acquires Wealthfront for $1.4B
Thanks for the encouragement, glad that you think it would be useful. I’ll keep plugging away at it!
dnadler··on UBS Acquires Wealthfront for $1.4B
They do, it's called Fidelity Go. They have a similar product for advisors called AMP. I actually worked on these products a while ago, they're all very similar when it comes down to it.
dnadler··on UBS Acquires Wealthfront for $1.4B
This is very interesting to me. I've been working on a retirement calculator in my free time as a hobby project for a while [1], but it never really occurred to me that there is real value in allowing people to do the 'what-if' analysis more easily. It seems obvious now...

Could you see yourself using something like this if there was an easy way to compare different scenarios?

[1] https://lunchmodel.com/lmrc/scenario

dnadler··on AirPods don't “just work”
So, I just switched from Android to iOS, and I've noticed that the bluetooth reliability is significantly worse than what I've become used to.

I switch from a Pixel 4a to an iPhone 11, and both my Bose QC 35 headphones and Sony wireless earbuds are having lots of issue that I never head on the pixel.

So, my takeaway is that iOS is behind here, though I don't know enough about the underlying tech to say anything for sure. Just my anecdotal experience...

dnadler··on Israel Finds Fourth Covid Booster Is Ineffective
They are working on Omicron-specific vaccines. Here's an article about Pfizer, not sure about anyone else, though.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-pfizer-omicron-va...

dnadler··on Mortgages are a manufactured product
Yup, that’s one common way to do it.
dnadler··on Mortgages are a manufactured product
Perhaps it's a US phenomenon.

In the US (and probably most places) a house is the most expensive asset that a person will own throughout their life.

It is reasonable to ask if a person's life would be better if they were able to extract some of the value from the house in exchange for other things. For example, I can borrow against the value of my home and afford to go on more vacations, or a nicer car. It could fund my retirement, even.

Another way of looking at it is as a component of an overall portfolio. Does it make sense for me to have 80% of my net worth in real estate when I can get a 30 year loan at 2% or 3% and diversify? HELOCs are another commonly used instrument.

I suppose some may argue that a few of the things I've mentioned are "irresponsible", but the truth is that it varies from person to person. When used intelligently, debt like this can be a win for both parties.

dnadler··on Want to be an actuary? Odds are, you’ll fail the test
Yes, there is, though the specifics vary (possibly significantly) by state
dnadler··on Boston police bought spy tech with a pot of money hidden from the public
FYI - Massachusetts has historically had a Democratic legislature and Republican Governor, so it's not really a "one party state", though I think your point still stands. In fact, we had a republican senator not too long ago (Scott Brown).
dnadler··on Blender 3.0
I've been using blender to prototype an addition to my house. It was surprisingly easy to pick up and I'm frankly astounded by the polish and capabilities of this tool. It's possibly the most complete and professional open source project that I have ever used.

Not only did I have fun using learning how to use Blender, but the model of my home that I built has actually turned out to be very useful. The VR support is especially neat, as I can take out a wall in my living room and then stand in the new space and see if it the changes I made work in (virtual) reality.

Highly recommended for anyone else thinking about doing work on your house.

I'm also thinking about using it to design some simple furniture that I could build, though haven't looked much into that yet.

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