1,522 karma · joined December 6, 2009
@dmvaldman on X
I should have understood that this kind of self-doubt was more common from females from growing up with my brother. David is two years younger than I am and one of the people in the world whom I respect and love the most. At home, he splits child care duties with his wife fifty-fifty; at work, he's a pediatric neurosurgeon whose days are filled with heart wrenching life-and-death decisions…
With Greenspun's logic, you could equivalently claim Sandberg admires her brother because he is a neurosurgeon.
you can't argue that someone's references are possibly fabricated, and then support your own point with your own "scientific" reference.
really it comes down to: if you ever find yourself arguing that someone's references are likely wrong because they are in the humanities... well...that's a conversation ender.
and i have a phd in math. believe me sometimes humanities people rub me the wrong way. but i would never make a general statement like that, and especially not to "prove a point."
it's the refuge of a scoundrel.
He discredits one of Sandberg's scientifically verified claims that women take criticism worse than men, by referencing "as John Ioannidis notes, “Most Published Research Findings are False.”
Yet he begins his review with a US News report:
"This US News article describes research that found that, among college graduates, left-handed men earned 20 percent more than right-handed men."
Talk about a bayesian paradox here. It's easy to prove people wrong (and right) when you believe A and ~A.
I could go on, it gets much worse. Does he really think Harvard uses the same internet bandwidth for their particle physics dept and the dorms? Ugh...
Bartender: can I get you all a drink?
1st logician: maybe
2nd logician: maybe
3rd logician: yes
http://www.davidvaldman.com.s3-website-us-east-1.amazonaws.c...
Personally I find the force-directed graph animations distracting. I would render the graph statically and have better animations for the propagation of information in your code.
We ask for a username only to give a unique identifier for a comment, and so that you can see which comments are yours. We don't ask for an email or social network link because frankly, I dislike demos that do :-P
If T = theory, and O = observation
P(T|O) = P(O|T) * P(T) / P(O)
tells you: given my observation what is the probability of my theory, P(T|O). And the equation gives you how this quantity depends on how your theory predicts the observation, P(O|T).
Usually when Bayesian probability is explained, it often comes across as "duh, that's what anyone would do" except not rigorously with equations. I tried to give an example contrasting a Frequentist and Bayesian approach.
I'll give my succinct spin: Throw a coin in the air 10 times. Say 6 times the coin lands heads up, and 4 times tails up.
A Bayesian would say: the most likely explanation is that the coin is biased in favor of heads with Prob(heads) = .6 and Prob(tails) = .4. Because given such a model, the chance of this outcome is 25% (10 choose 6 * .6^6 * .4^4). Less likely is the explanation that the coin is fair.
A Frequentist would begin by assuming a model, likely that the coin is fair. She would then argue that the probability of getting 6 heads in 10 tosses is about 21% (10 choose 6 * 1/2^10), and she would have tools (number of STDs from the mean, etc) to test how much of an outlier this observation was, in order to validate her model.
In summary, the Bayesian considers many models at once, and asks how likely are they given the observations. A Frequentist starts with one model, and asks how likely is the observation.
The Frequentist uses the scientific method: develop a hypothesis, then test it. The Bayesian does something else, which I think is better, but ill-defined. She somehow tests all hypotheses at once, and puts different confidences in each.
Also, anyone who hasn't already checked out assange.rt.com should! JA has been producing high quality interviews with some of the most interesting world leaders while under house arrest.
[1] http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/jul/12/wikileaks-court-...
You gain efficiency, at the loss of acquiring short term risk. Might be a useful exchange in some cases.
One good example: in a traffic jam everyone decides to maintain a minimum of 50ft between them and the car in front of them.