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dleary

460 karma · joined January 1, 2011

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dleary··on Mark Zuckerberg says social media is over
This is crazy.

You’re saying that Facebook was somehow helpless to avoid changing from a “friends feed” to an ad-maximizing outrage-inducing misinformation machine because of web2.0 communication technology?

Someone invented XmlHttpRequest and Facebook was like, “well that’s the ballgame, I guess we have to suck now?”

dleary··on OpenAI wants to buy Chrome and make it an "AI-first" experience
> ...except Chrome was not and is not an illegal enterprise.

> The charges were against search and ads.

The textbook definition of “monopolistic behavior” is “using your monopoly in one sector to extend your power in another sector”.

It’s not illegal to have a monopoly. That can happen if you are completely innocent, just because no competitors choose to compete with you.

It’s illegal to abuse the power of your monopoly.

What was the biggest browser when Chrome launched? It was Firefox. Where are they now? On death’s door.

What was the biggest commercial browser when Chrome launched? It was Opera. Where are they now? Also on death’s door.

Do you ever remember seeing ads for Chrome in any of Googles other offerings?

A better question would be, “Before 2020 or so, do you think it was possible to use Google Search without having Chrome advertised to you?”

Chrome got special treatment above and beyond anything available to anyone else. Even more than anyone else with an unlimited Google ad budget. It got special placement in the Google search interface. “Try chrome!” On the otherwise bare Google search page. You know, the one that was famously minimalistic and “ad-free”.

Google leveraged its search and ads pseudo-monopolies to help Chrome become its own pseudo+monopoly.

And now that Chrome is its own pseudo-monopoly, what is their behavior?

Well, now, you can’t install (good) ad blockers anymore. Does that benefit users, or is that abusing their browser monopoly to help Google’s other business lines?

And until approximately yesterday, they were saying they were going to disable third party cookies. That’s nice. It probably would help some users. Note that it will definitely hurt Google’s competitors.

And it’s interesting timing, isn’t it? They could have done this, to help users, at any point in the past 15 years, but they only decided to do it recently, when their search and ad businesses are a little shaky compared to where they used to be.

Google absolutely used its search and ad monopolies to build a browser monopoly. And now that they have a browser monopoly, they’re using the power of that monopoly to act in ways contrary to their users interests.

dleary··on Novel color via stimulation of individual photoreceptors at population scale
"Violet" is a spectral color, which means that it is a color formed by a single wavelength of light. And it is a member of the rainbow (the spectrum).

"Purple" is a mixture of red and blue.

dleary··on The 'Judicial Black Hole' of El Salvador's Prisons Is a Warning for Americans
He's making a claim about 1700s America. Not modern day countries.

It was a violent time.

Just one 'dataset': https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Indian_massacres_in_No...

dleary··on The 'Judicial Black Hole' of El Salvador's Prisons Is a Warning for Americans
No, 300 murders total.

The population reached ~300k in 1750. A murder rate of 2 per 100k times 300k people equals 6 murders. Multiply that by 50 years to get 300 murders.

dleary··on The 'Judicial Black Hole' of El Salvador's Prisons Is a Warning for Americans
If the population grew from 100k in 1700 to 300k in 1750, and if the homicide rate was right around 2 per 100k, then that would mean that the total number of homicides in New England, over the 50 years span was less than 300.

Do you really believe that fewer than 300 murders occurred during this time?

dleary··on The 'Judicial Black Hole' of El Salvador's Prisons Is a Warning for Americans
Where did you get that figure from?

There are many sources online that agree, so I won’t bother to link them, that the population of New England was ~100k in 1700 and ~300k in 1750.

The claim that that actual rate of murder in all of New England was 2-6 per year is not believable.

dleary··on Honey has now lost 4M Chrome users after shady tactics were revealed
> But wasn't Honey paying them?

Yes, but Honey was also stealing from them. Most youtubers make a significant portion of their income via affiliate links.

So, consider the following scenario. I made up these numbers, I don't know if these are accurate:

Honey pays a youtuber $1k for a single ad spot. Due to that ad, many of the youtuber's audience installs the Honey extension. Afterwards, the youtuber's affiliate link income goes down by $2k/month, because all of those affiliate referrals are being stolen by Honey.

Also, Honey never disclosed that they were doing this.

So, of course, you can understand why the youtubers would have grievance. Pretty much nobody would ever agree to give up $2k/month of income forever to get $1k right now. (And it's probably not right now, it's probably more like 90 days when they settle their payables).

dleary··on AI Blindspots – Blindspots in LLMs I've noticed while AI coding
> there's literally nothing to support your belief that there's anything resembling understanding of the world, having a world model, neurons, thinking, or reasoning in LLMs.

The link mentions "a feature that triggers on the Golden Gate Bridge".

As a test case, I just drew this terrible doodle of the Golden Gate Bridge in MS paint: https://imgur.com/a/1TJ68JU

I saved the file as "a.png", opened the chatgpt website, started a new chat, uploaded the file, and entered, "what is this?"

It had a couple of paragraphs saying it looked like a suspension bridge. I said "which bridge". It had some more saying it was probably the GGB, based on two particular pieces of evidence, which it explained.

https://imgur.com/a/sWwWlxO

> The model recognizes nothing, and groups nothing

Then how do you explain the interaction I had with chatgpt just now? It sure looks to me like it recognized the GGB from my doodle.

dleary··on AI Blindspots – Blindspots in LLMs I've noticed while AI coding
> It literally is "in our training data similar concepts were clustered with some other similar concepts, and manipulating these clusters lead to different outcomes".

Recognizing concepts, grouping and manipulating similar concepts together, is what “abstraction” is. It's the fundamental essence of both "building a world model" and "thinking".

> Nothing in the link you provided is even close to "neurons, model of the world, thinking" etc.

I really have no idea how to address your argument. It’s like you’re saying,

“Nothing you have provided is even close to a model of the world or thinking. Instead, the LLM is merely building a very basic model of the world and performing very basic reasoning”.

dleary··on Show HN: Minimal, self-hosted exercise tracker
If it’s not too privacy-invading, would you mind sharing the chatgpt transcripts for these prompts?
dleary··on More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market
> and would have been spent in perfectly ordinary ways no different from the average person of modest means, if it weren't for the scams.

That is a pretty big leap.

There are plenty of ways, plenty of “unviable financial beliefs”, that can lead one to unwisely fritter away their resources without being exploited by a scammer.

You are basically asserting that most people who get scammed are otherwise Rational Agents who would invest their capital wisely, if not for the scammers deceiving them.

I would argue that, on the contrary, this set of people is very small.

Think of how many stories there are of people pursuing “investments”, or just directing their resources, into flat-out bullshit.

To pick some examples off the top of my head:

How much time, money, thought, effort (e.g. capital) has been wasted by people pursuing the Flat Earth theory? I would guess that there aren’t very many scammers involved in the Flat Earth movement. Most of the people involved are crackpot true believers.

As opposed to, say, homeopathy. Which certainly has a not-insignificant number of exploiters/scammers, people who know that it is bullshit but gladly exploit the uneducated.

Both of these movements involve a significant number of “uneducated” people spending their resources on a fantasy.

But, most of the resources poured into the Flat Earth movement are pure waste, with very little benefit whatsoever to the “Body Economic”. There are not very many “trickle down” benefits from the resources being spent.

When the “uneducated” people give their resources to a scammer, it is usually ending up in the hands of someone who is at least somewhat economically rational. And those resources will be spent in more rational ways.

Even if the scammer buys a bunch of gold chains and sports cars that they don’t really use, those resources are “participating” in the economy in a way that the wasted investments that don’t involve a scammer are not.

I’m not on the scammers’ side. I’m not saying they are good people. But it is not clear that “they are the economic inefficiency”.

dleary··on More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market
It’s overly simplistic to say that if a person has reproduced, then they have ‘succeeded’ in the natural selection game.

There is a whole (potential) downstream genealogical tree branching off from each individual

Certainly, any person who reproduces has done “better” at the game than someone who has not reproduced at all. But that is still not quite enough.

If a parent reproduces, but none of their children themselves reproduce, then the parent has not actually succeeded in the game.

A gambling addict who can’t hold onto any money absolutely affects their downstream tree.

dleary··on Mise: Dev tools, env vars, task runner
> If you think a language that has just one tool is better, then it just means your use-cases are very narrow.

Counterpoint from “The Zen of Python”:

> There should be one-- and preferably only one --obvious way to do it.

https://peps.python.org/pep-0020/

dleary··on QwQ: Alibaba's O1-like reasoning LLM
You’ll get some eye rolls from people when you bring that up for Sally.

But there are several names that used to be considered male but are now female, like Leslie and Marion. I don’t think I’ve ever met a man name Marion, but you still occasionally run into a Leslie.

It would be interesting to start using Leslie for this little logic puzzle and see how that affects people’s answers.

dleary··on QwQ: Alibaba's O1-like reasoning LLM
That is a pretty cynical take. FSF good, OSI bad.

> ”Open Source" was created to be corporate-friendly as it was predated by Free software, which is rigidly committed to users freedom.

Rigidly committed to a certain interpretation of users freedom. And that interpretation happens to involve removing a number of freedoms “for your own good”.

It is more correct to say that the GPL was created to be anti-corporate, as it was predated by both the MIT and BSD licenses, which are more free, both for users and corporations, which the FSF finds intolerable.

dleary··on Focaccia: A Neolithic culinary tradition dating back 9k years ago
It proves that they could have made bread this way.

It doesn’t necessarily prove that they did.

Although the article presents pretty convincing evidence that they did. (Ceramic formation on the clay trays that matches the temperature and composition of focaccia residue).

So unless they are just making up data for their paper (which is something that definitely happens), it sounds legit to me.

dleary··on Keynes Predicted We Would Be Working 15-Hour Weeks. Why Was He So Wrong? (2015)
Great point, I wasn't thinking of that.

So, especially in the northern cities, maybe the lettuce:nails ratio held true.

That makes it feel like a trick question, though. I wonder what the situation looked like for hardy vegetables like potatoes, onions, corn, squash.

dleary··on Keynes Predicted We Would Be Working 15-Hour Weeks. Why Was He So Wrong?
> c) I've heard that the ratio between the cost of nails and the price of lettuce is still more or less the same as it was in the 1770s.

This feels like it can’t be correct.

Nails were expensive and difficult to obtain in the American colonies, so that abandoned houses were sometimes deliberately burned down to allow recovery of used nails from the ashes. This became such a problem in Virginia that a law was created to stop people from burning their houses when they moved. [0]

And nails were a significant expense in Thoreau’s cabin in _Walden_, c.a. 1850s

Maybe lettuce was a lot more expensive back then than I realize, though. I assume that produce is close to “free”, since you can grow it yourself.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nail_(fastener)

dleary··on Phased Array Microphone (2023)
This laser mosquito killer is, and always has been, a PR whitewashing campaign for Intellectual Venture's reputation.

This device has never been built, never been purchasable, and it is ALWAYS brought up whenever IV wants to talk about how cool they are.

And I say this as someone who loosely knows and was friends with a few people that worked there. They brought up this same invention when they were talking about their work. They eventually soured on the company, once they saw the actual sausage being made.

IV is a patent troll, shaking down people doing the real work of developing products.

They trot out this invention, and a handful of others, to appear like they are a public benefit. Never mind that most of these inventions don't really exist, have never been manufactured.

They hide the extent of their holdings, they hide the byzantine network of shell companies they use to mask their holdings, and they spend a significant amount of their money lobbying (bribing).

Why do they need to hide all of this?

Look at their front page, prominently featuring the "Autoscope", for fighting malaria. Fighting malaria sounds great, they're the good guys, right? Now do a bit of web searching to try to find out what the Autoscope is and where it's being used. It's vaporware press release articles going back 8 years.

Look at their "spinouts" page, and try to find any real substance at all on these companies. It is all gossamer, marketing speak with nothing behind it when you actually go looking for it.

Meanwhile, they hold a portfolio of more than 40,000 patents, and they siphon off billions from the real economy. Part of their "licensing agreement" is that you can't talk badly about them after they shake you down, or else the price goes up.

They are rent-seeking parasites.

dleary··on Undergraduates with family income below $200k will be tuition-free at MIT
If their duty is to deliver education, why are they sitting on a $20B hoard?

Presumably they could spend a little bit of that to deliver some more education, couldn’t they?

dleary··on The shrimp welfare project
> Children aren't as good at information processing, but they are even more capable of suffering.

That is too strong a statement to just toss out there like that. And I don’t even think it’s true.

I think children probably feel pain more intensely than adults. But there are many more dimensions to suffering than pain. And many of those dimensions are beyond the ken of children.

Children will not know the suffering that comes from realizing that you have ruined a relationship that you value, and it was entirely your fault.

They will not know the kind of suffering that’s behind Imposter Syndrome after getting into MIT.

Or the suffering that comes from realizing that your heroin addiction will never be as good as the first time you shot up. Or that same heroin addict knowing that they are betraying their family, stealing their mother’s jewelry to pawn, and doing it anyway.

Or the suffering of a once-great athlete coming to terms with the fact that they are washed up and that life is over now.

Or the suffering behind their favorite band splitting up.

Or the suffering behind winning Silver at the Olympics.

Or the agony of childbirth.

Perhaps most importantly, one of the greatest sorrows of all: losing your own child.

Et cetera

dleary··on Two galaxies aligned in a way where their gravity acts as a compound lens
This is true, but also, keep in mind that the JWST was insanely hard and almost cancelled a few times :)

The SGL would be much, much harder than the JWST would be, and the JWST was already stretching our capabilities.

The SGL needs to be 650AU away from us. Voyager 1 and 2 are currently 165AU and 120AU away.

The JWST is 0.01 AU from us.

And you can only look in one direction after the probe finally gets into position. Once you're 650AU away, it's not really feasible to move "sideways" far enough to look at something else.

dleary··on Two galaxies aligned in a way where their gravity acts as a compound lens
Disclaimer: I am a layman, not trained at all. But I am interested in this stuff.

Our most powerful telescopes can see "back in time", by looking at stuff far enough away that it took nearly the entire age of the universe for the light to reach us.

I would guess that we can use this natural compound lens to "see farther" with our current telescopes than we might otherwise be able to see.

Our current best telescope, the JWST, can almost see to the very beginning of when it was possible to see, somewhere between 300k and 200M years after the big bang [0].

Somewhere in this time period, the universe cooled enough for normal matter to form.

The JWST still cannot see the actual 'edge' of when this occurred.

Maybe with this natural compound lens, we can see all the way to the edge.

And if we could see where the edge actually is, then maybe we can refine the estimate to a tighter range than [300k,200M], which would give us a better estimate of the expansion rate of the earlier universe.

[0] https://www.universetoday.com/168872/webb-observations-shed-...

dleary··on Congress hears testimony on aliens
You disagree with GP, and then to “back up” your disagreement you quote a passage that directly confirms GPs statement. What’s going on?
dleary··on Are groceries more expensive than last year?
> I'm well aware of the prices increases over the summer. But in october, I noticed the price drop to the $2 range. And then all of a sudden, the price increased to $4 the past week. Which would have NOTHING to do with your links.

It's hard to guess what your argument is when you haven't plainly stated it.

With the statements you have made, it sounds like you're accepting the links that I posted as truthful, but that they don't matter because they are "old".

On that basis, it sounds like your position is:

========

These links show that this bird flu epidemic, unprecedented in history, continued to grow from 50M in late 2023, to 100M in mid 2024. At which point the epidemic had been steadily growing for 18 months. That's why prices increased over the summer.

And then we instantly fixed the problem. And now there is no way that the death of 30% of the US flock could have price ramifications 5 months later.

========

Now, this sounds ridiculous to me, and so I apologize if I have set up a strawman. I can't imagine anyone actually believing this, but I also can't see a different interpretation of what you have said.

By the way, here's another link, this one from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/data-map-comm...

The May 2024 link I posted above had the total poultry deaths at 92M. It is unclear whether that 92M figure included the 4.2M chickens that needed to be killed in Iowa. I rounded the figure up to 100M. I apologize if you viewed this as deceitful.

The CDC link states that as of 11/8/2024, the poultry death count had now reached 105M. So, another 13M deaths (another 14.1% increase in total death count) since that May 2024 figure.

You didn't need to restrict yourself to only the links I posted. I chose links that were easily digestible, with the info up front in the headlines. The CDC page requires a bit of reading to get to the figures.

You could have done the web search I recommended and found these other links...

You also say:

> It's third world shenanigans.

But "third world shenanigans" covers a lot of territory, so I'm not sure what you mean. Usually "third world shenanigans" means that the administration of whatever country is being talked about is corruptly benefitting from those shenanigans in some fashion.

But I don't see how that applies here as well. What shenanigans are occurring, and who is benefitting from them?

It would really help if you would plainly state your positions.

> I may be mistaken, but your wall of text describes you. Are you a journalist, or a laid off journalist, by any chance?

Yes, you are very mistaken. But who I am doesn't matter, unless you are making an ad-hominem argument.

Can you elaborate on your positions without ad-hominem or name calling?

dleary··on Are groceries more expensive than last year?
It's simple supply and demand. You can't lose 100M out of the total 310M chickens in the USA and not have economic shocks.

Were you unaware of the bird flu outbreak killing 1/3 of the chickens in the US? This information is easily available to anyone who types "why are the prices of eggs so high?" into your search engine of choice.

"Normal people" can be forgiven for not investigating and fact-checking every statement that they run across. That is exhausting. But people who call themselves "journalists" really cannot be forgiven for spreading lies and disinformation about something that is so easily verifiable.

If you are intentionally muddying the waters or spreading disinformation, well then, shame on you.

But it's much more likely that you have been deceived by the systems that you trust to deliver you information.

Ask yourself, what motives exist for them to deceive you?

Why would they talk so much about how the price of eggs has skyrocketed, without even addressing this obvious explanation?

Even if they don't agree with this reporting, isn't it strange that they don't bring it up, even if it's just to talk about why this widely-reported explanation is itself misinformation?

How much contempt must they hold for you, that they think they can treat you this way?

=========

"Nearly 1 million chickens infected with bird flu in Minnesota to be killed, per USDA"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/11/08/chicke...

=========

"The largest fresh egg producer in the U.S. has found bird flu in chickens at a Texas plant. Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. said that approximately 1.6 million laying hens were destroyed after the infection was found at a facility in Parmer County, Texas."

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/largest-fresh-e...

=========

"Overall, 92.34 million birds have been killed since the outbreak began in 2022, according to the U.S. Agriculture Department."

"Crews are in the process of killing 4.2 million chickens after the disease was found at a farm in Sioux County, Iowa"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/farmers-must-kill-42m-c...

dleary··on Are groceries more expensive than last year?
You’re missing the entire point of their argument.

How could they signal that they’re the victim if they only discussed the issues?

dleary··on Trump wins presidency for second time
This is a strawman.

I didn't say that ALL Republicans supported it in hive-mind lockstep. I said "this bill was championed and lauded by the Republicans".

You linked to a video where 6 of the 49 Republican senators hold a mini-conference complaining about how they don't agree with their party's leadership. That doesn't refute the statement that "this bill was championed and lauded by the Republicans" if most Republicans champion and laud the bill.

Once again, I'll repeat: This was only 8 months ago. We remember how the bill was expected to pass before Trump told them not to.

And Trump specifically said that the reason not to was that he wanted to the border to remain weak so that he could nail the Democrats on it.

dleary··on Trump wins presidency for second time
GP already said that it won’t happen via repealing the amendment. So pointing out how difficult that is/should be isn’t a strong point.

> But I don't see the Court interpreting "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice" in any other way

Simple… He wont be elected.

He’ll be appointed. Or some other word. Or elections will be suspended due to some “national emergency” and so “we’ll just continue with who we have right now in the interim”. This is not uncommon when democracies fall to authoritarianism.

The Republicans, and their courts and judges, have already amply demonstrated how disingenuous they’re willing to be.

The 14th amendment disqualifies people who have “previously taken an oath to support the Constitution.”

The Republican position is that Trump swore an oath to “preserve, protect, and defend” the Constitution, but the word “support” was not in there so it doesn’t apply.

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