dham

There's a misconception that what people see and what the camera sees is similar. Not true at all. One day when it's raining or foggy, have some record the driving, through the windshield. You'll be very surprised. Even what the camera displays on the screen isn't what it's actually "seeing".

Waymo had safety drivers for a long time. And still have safety drivers to this day when they roll out a new city. You wouldn't have known that because no one was paying attention to this stuff back then.

If you have mud on a camera, you can't drive it either way. Lidar or not. The way to actually solve these issues is to have way more cameras for redundancy / self cleaning etc, not other sensors.

Lane keep is absolutely not a solved problem. Go test drive any of the latest cars from Kia, Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, Ford, etc. They all will literally kill you.

So I'm assuming you're fine with regular drivers using basic lane keep systems from other companies, which honestly doesn't even work well, even in the latest cars. (there's a reason Comma.ai exists) At least people who are using FSD are enthusiasts and understand the tech. You have some people using lane keep with adaptive cruise control and think the car is "self driving". That's dangerous.

I see what you're saying, but it doesn't matter that much in the long run. If everything stopped right now, the state-of-the-art open source models can still solve a lot of problems. They may never solve coding, per se, but they're good enough.

The tools are going to ~zero (~ 5 years). The open source LLM's are here. No one can put them back or take them down. No internet, no problem. I don't see a long term future in frontier llm companies.

Except it doesn't. Are you basing your comment on experience or Reddit posts?

Yea that's right, 10 years for you in your car. Right now, for people who own Teslas.

You're not agreeing with reality because you haven't used FSD 14. You're making assumptions on headlines and older versions. And honestly, 95% of the time, people are making assumptions about FSD when, in reality, they're thinking about Autopilot.

Tesla AP is a basic ADAS system like Toyota Safety Sense. So using FSD and AP in the same sentence basically reads like Microsoft Windows 3.1 and Microsoft Windows 11.

I don't need to drink anything. Having two drivers is better than one.

Honestly, I'm done trying to convince FSD deniers. You'll be in an autonomous car full-time in 10 years, no matter what, so who cares?

99% of my driving is FSD. Yea it took a while but with FSD 14 it's finally here. No other consumer self-driving is close. If you saw what this thing could do you would never not use it. It's like driving without a seatbelt now. You would never not want to be driving without it.

That's the article lol

That's an interesting point. One, I wish I made haha. This article is for people who are "into" this stuff (tech). Who live and breathe it. Who've been doing it as a kid and just getting into agentic coding.

You didn't read the article. The TLDR is: treat it like learning anything else (Like learning a language). Go into it full force with good faith, and you'll have a better outcome.

> Go outside into the woods

I think I can live off just the fire ants in my yard. Not to mention all the neighbors. Even with constantly baiting them, it's hard not have at least 1 hill active at all times during the summer, as the neighbors are dumb and just spray. So they just end up moving.

People are so worried about the 1% of driving. 99% of the driving is in town, and in that case, it's super convenient. Yeah, you might have to stop an extra time on a road trip, so what? The car is also driving itself 99% of the trip. Plus, the kids have to pee.

If you have to drive 250 miles every day for work, or you don't have kids and can do 3 hour legs on trips without stopping, then get a gas car.

> The camera is clean. I can see that on the dashcam records.

You won't see it unless you shine light into it.

> And if the system is so fragile that a bit of dust kills it, then it's not good.

It's not dust, it's fog on the inside of the windshield from offgassing.

> The issue with the red-hands-of-death is caused by the forward collision warning, the road there curves and slopes up, so the car gets confused and interprets the car in front as if it's on a collision course

Of fair enough. I've never seen this, and I used FSD (14) all through the Appalachian mountains.

> FSD got better than it was 4 years ago. But it's still _nowhere_ near Waymo

Fair enough, but FSD is still years ahead of any other system you can buy as a consumer.

> I'm not talking about some Tesla style last second bullshit where you're supposed to compensate for the deficiencies of the system that supposedly can do the full journey.

Interesting because that's just not my experience at all and a lot of other users.

> FSD has been "really good since VVV"

These are influencers who have a stake in Tesla. The general consensus from the regular users is that it is really good starting at FSD 14. It's the first version that finally feels complete. I have 5000 miles on FSD 14 with no disengagements. 99% of my driving is FSD. I couldn't say that for any other version. Even my wife has 85% of her driving on FSD and she hated it before. She just tends to drive herself on short drives and in parkings lots, where as I don't. So your take just doens't line up with what people are saying in social media and my personal experience.

> My windshield is completely normal

If it's never been cleaned from the inside, it's a good chance it's not. The off-gassing from new cars causes fog on the inside of the windshield in front of the camera. It might behave ok (or wierd) but when sun hits it you get red hands of death.

You need to clean it yourself or have Tesla do it. They offer it for free. I did mine following this video and it wasn't bad if you have the right tool. After I did this things were completely fine in low direct sun.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwiMCIxYFXM

People think you can just slap lidar on and poof, self-driving is solved. There still has to be a software / ML stack. You still have to know what you're doing. You still need a lot of data.

Update, it is vaporware lol. Just announced today they are canceling it.

Are you talking hw3 or 4? Also, the e2e FSD is recent. And FSD has gotten really good since 13, and with 14 it's really, really good. Not sure what 2015 has to do with anything. Red hands of death would be sunglare due to your windshield not being clean. I haven't had red hands since 14 came out.

> FSD attempts to work in cities. But it's ridiculously bad, it's worse than useless even in simple city conditions.

This isn't even close to being right.

That was autopilot not FSD. Autopilot is a simple ADAS system similar to Toyota Safety sense or all the other garbage ADAS systems from Honda, Kia, Toyota, GM etc. FSD passed this test with flying colors

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzZhIsGFL6g

Have you driven in America? We have the craziest lights you've ever seen. And that's just in my state

> choose vision over lidar

I mean, you have to have vision to drive. What are you getting at? You can't have a lidar only autonomous vehicle.

The start menu worked 30 years ago on a 32mb of RAM and a box of scraps.

Except every year you didn't have people like Pewdiepie and DHH pushing Linux. As as channels like GamersNexus doing Linux benchmarks. At the same time Windows and Mac making very dumb mistakes. So this time it does feel different, even if it might not be in the end.