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demosthanos

2,296 karma · joined November 27, 2023

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demosthanos··on Android 16 is here
> Its actually a big change, as swiping up just opens the Google Maps bottom menu.

On my phone there are two swipe zones at the bottom. The one that's actually on the screen opens the Google Maps menu. But if I swipe from off screen up it works as I described. Maybe your phone doesn't have enough surface area below the screen to distinguish the two?

demosthanos··on Left-Pad (2024)
The number of distinct entities in your supply chain and whether those developers are on your payroll.

As a business, each additional human or company you add to your supply chain represents additional risk that you're taking on. You can go some ways towards mitigating those risks—one of the most common is to sign a contract with them rather than doing business ad hoc—but the risk doesn't go away entirely. Given that additional risk for each additional downstream supplier, it's generally safer to use code written by someone who's already on your payroll than it is to use code written by someone you've never met and have no way of vetting.

demosthanos··on Android 16 is here
This is never how the marketing around the big UI overhauls that OP is worried about works. A sneaky UI overhaul that's launched with no fanfare doesn't get anyone promoted, so why bother?

> like when I upgraded to 15 my home button no longer exists when the screen is locked, which effectively makes google maps navigation stuck on the screen unless you stop navigation by pressing back repeatedly

Smaller things like this, sure.

FYI, swiping up from the bottom will get into the lock screen and then once unlocked into the home screen.

demosthanos··on Low-background Steel: content without AI contamination
> AIs trained on public scraped data that predates 2022 don't noticeably outperform those trained on scraped data from 2022 onwards. Hell, in some cases, newer scrapes perform slightly better, token for token, for unknown reasons.

This is really bad reasoning for a few reasons:

1) We've gotten much better at training LLMs since 2022. The negative impacts of AI slop in the training data certainly don't outweigh the benefits of orders of magnitude more parameters and better training techniques, but that doesn't mean they have no negative impact.

2) "Outperform" is a very loose term and we still have no real good answer for measuring it meaningfully. We can all tell that Gemini 2.5 outperforms GPT-4o. What's trickier is distinguishing between Gemini 2.5 and Claude 4. The expected effect size of slop at this stage would be on that smaller scale of differences between same-gen models.

Given that we're looking for a small enough effect size that we know we're going to have a hard time proving anything with data, I think it's reasonable to operate from first principles in this case. First principles say very clearly that avoiding training on AI-generated content is a good idea.

demosthanos··on Android 16 is here
This knee-jerk reaction is correct more often than not (see the terrible iOS redesign announced earlier), but in this case it seems like it might be incorrect?

I looked through the highlights linked here and the full "What's New" page [0] and am pleasantly surprised to see a few new features but no major overhauls of existing ones.

[0] https://www.android.com/16

demosthanos··on Magistral — the first reasoning model by Mistral AI
Are we looking at the same account? There's not a lot of data there, as is the nature of a new account, but from where I'm sitting I'd guess they're based in Portugal or if not there specifically then at least on mainland Europe.

Out of 5 comments:

* This one is saying that Europe's biggest AI company isn't keeping up with China.

* Two comments are talking about Europe needing to become more independent from American tech companies.

* A fourth is talking about ElevenLabs's Portuguese support and noting that one of the Portuguese voices has a Spanish accent.

* The fifth is unrelated to geography or language.

I'm not sure where in this you get that they have a US-centric perspective. The only comments they have that mention the US at all are taking the very distinctly 2025-European tack of advocating for increased independence from America. Coupled with this one contrasting with Chinese tech that presents a pretty unified picture of someone who has a lot of interest in Europe having its own strong tech independent from the rest of the world.

The ElevenLabs comment is the most telling for me for pinpointing the geography: in order to know what Portuguese spoken with a Spanish accent sounds like you really have to have spent a significant amount of time in Iberia and most likely speak Portuguese as a native language.

demosthanos··on Magistral — the first reasoning model by Mistral AI
It gets pretty tiresome when people automatically take something as pro-US jingoism without stopping to think for a second about what they're saying. The model they're comparing to is Chinese, not American. How can you possibly construe OP's comment as pro-US?

EDIT: The comment below got flagged to death, so I'm going to link my evidence up here for visibility: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44238841

Not only does the top-level comment make no mention of the US, but their comment history is strongly suggestive that they themselves are European, not US-based.

demosthanos··on Bruteforcing the phone number of any Google user
Can you elaborate? As one tool among many it seems to me to be a perfectly serviceable tool in the toolbox, with a sufficiently high rate limit to account for shared IPs.
demosthanos··on Tell HN: Help restore the tax deduction for software dev in the US (Section 174)
It's that it doesn't reflect the reality that the value of software is not remotely correlated with the salaries that were spent building it. It could be valued much higher or much lower, spanning a huge range.

Using salaries as a proxy for value of the asset encourages only the safest shovelware bets, discouraging risk taking lest your asset be taxed at substantially higher than it's worth.

Avoiding that risk-adverse dynamic is why Section 174 was written the way it was since the 50s to encourage R&D, and it's paid off in spades.

demosthanos··on Tell HN: Help restore the tax deduction for software dev in the US (Section 174)
If you're ripping off a competitor, sure, the salaries of your engineers roughly translates to the value of the resulting capital asset. But the most valuable work that software engineers do is the stuff that has never been done before. The salaries of your developers and designers and your product managers go first towards figuring out what a valuable capital asset would look like. Only after that can you start investing in the actual asset.

The same is true for all true R&D, which is why historically the government has tried to provide protections for R&D work to incentivize people to not just churn out the safe bet over and over again. Patents fall into this category, but software patents are (rightly) hard to come by. Through 2022, the risk of software development was offset by the ability to expense the costs and avoid a tax bill, and this was good policy if your aim is to encourage innovation.

The capital asset theory could still work if there were some way to appraise the value of the actual asset you created. But absent such a way, this thinking is deeply flawed for all but the most shovelware of jobs.

demosthanos··on Tell HN: Help restore the tax deduction for software dev in the US (Section 174)
I posted a short explanation here [0] on the thread the other day, but the even shorter explanation is that "software development shouldn't be taxed" is not an accurate description of what repealing the change to Section 174 would do. This discussion has nothing to do with what work gets taxed (all profit is taxed no matter the industry) and everything to do with what counts as "profit".

The Section 174 changes altered the accounting method that software development companies must use for calculating their profit for tax purposes. Starting in 2022 software dev must be treated not as an expense but as an investment in an asset, such that you're now required to amortize the expense over 5 years instead of deducting it from your revenue the year you spent the money.

The gigantic problem with this change is that without the ability to expense software development expenses as expenses, a new software startup can very easily be considered profitable in their first year because only 10% of their software development-related expenses get to be counted as expenses.

And note that, contrary to what you say, most white-collar work is not treated this way, and software is further singled out from other R&D-type work in that it is the only type of work that is explicitly called out in the section as being required to be marked as R&D. So we're not asking for software to be treated specially, we're asking why it suddenly changed in 2022 to be treated specially in an extremely negative way.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44204565

demosthanos··on Kagi Reaches 50k Users
Note that despite the small number, Kagi is profitable (or at least they were as of a year ago):

> We are also thrilled to report that we have achieved profitability. This significant milestone is a testament to our sustainable growth and fiscal responsibility. It demonstrates that our approach of offering a premium, ad-free search experience resonates with users who support a service aligning with their values. Becoming profitable allows us to reinvest in the business, further enhancing our offerings and ensuring that we can continue to provide a top-notch search experience.

As long as they're profitable I don't mind at all if they stay small. They're extremely useful to me as it is, and their small size means they aren't targeted for SEO nonsense, so their methods to cut through all that still actually work in my experience.

Not every business needs to become a unicorn. Some businesses are better at small scales serving a specific niche, and by their report Kagi seems to have found their niche.

https://blog.kagi.com/what-is-next-for-kagi

demosthanos··on FAA to eliminate floppy disks used in air traffic control systems
My understanding is that remote tower ATC is something that had to happen at that airport due to geographic constraints rather than some kind of next step for ATC in general. Given a choice between being able to physically look out the window and not, from what I understand being able to see out is always preferable.

The rest I don't know enough to comment on, so I'll assume you're correct.

demosthanos··on The last six months in LLMs, illustrated by pelicans on bicycles
To be fair, once it does generalize the pattern then the benchmark is actually measuring something useful for deciding if the model will be able to product a subject-verb-object SVG.
demosthanos··on The last six months in LLMs, illustrated by pelicans on bicycles
I'd say definitely do not do that. That would make the benchmark look more serious while still being problematic for knowledge cutoff reasons. Your prompt has become popular even outside your blog, so the odds of some SVG pelicans on bicycles making it into the training data have been going up and up.

Karpathy used it as an example in a recent interview: https://www.msn.com/en-in/health/other/ai-expert-asks-grok-3...

demosthanos··on FAA to eliminate floppy disks used in air traffic control systems
I see this the opposite way: kudos to the FAA for sticking it out so long on legacy hardware and software as long as they have!

ATC is a safety-critical function that has what amounts to a 100% uptime requirement. Whatever system they're running currently either works or has known flaws that they know how to work around, and air traffic controllers have been trained on these systems for more than a generation now. Upgrading merely for the sake of being up to date would have been foolish no matter how much funding Congress would have given them.

If they're saying that they need the upgrade now, I'll trust them on that, but it was the right call to make it last.

demosthanos··on The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs
> O wait obviously that’s not what code is a liability means. Code is a liability in the same way roads or buildings are a liability, they incur an ongoing cost, but removing the US highway system would be just as idiotic as a startup deleting their source repository from a misunderstood idea.

I love this example! It perfectly illustrates a case where the government intentionally subsidizes a liability that no sane company would take on without government funding. Well said.

So we're agreed that the government should incentivize R&D with a favorable tax code that makes it not completely insane to take on the risk of doing something new.

demosthanos··on The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs
Historically, Section 174 allowed everyone to opt in or out of R&D amortization. That amortization is required from anyone for R&D is new.

Further, software is the only type of R&D explicitly called out as required to count as R&D. Which means it should be taken as a given that most other industries are finding ways to count their R&D as anything else, while we've been intentionally given the short straw for some reason by having our specific field be the only one identified by name so as to leave no wiggle room. I'd say that definitely counts as being a special case. The section is even labeled "Special Rules".

demosthanos··on The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs
> Because generating an asset IE software isn’t a pure loss that’s why you’re doing it in the first place.

Tell me you're not an experienced software engineer without telling me you're not an experienced software engineer.

Code is a liability, not an asset.

demosthanos··on Washington Post's Privacy Tip: Stop Using Chrome, Delete Meta Apps (and Yandex)
Those things help, yes. I say that it's impossible to fully block first party tracking because you must interact with the server in order to accomplish anything and those interactions can be tracked. But a third party can be cut entirely out of the loop.
demosthanos··on The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs
Just to be clear, "special group" here means "any small business that wants to do any R&D of any kind", right? Because software was not a special group before, all R&D was opt-in for this kind of accounting.

Now, after this change, software is a special group singled out, a deviation in the tax code specially carved out for us to make our field specifically the exceptional one with no wiggle room. No other type of development is named in Section 174 to explicitly require companies to amortize.

So who is that subsidizing now?

demosthanos··on Washington Post's Privacy Tip: Stop Using Chrome, Delete Meta Apps (and Yandex)
A full-featured ad blocker (uBlock Origin original, not the neutered Lite version that runs on Chrome now) will intercept requests at the network level and prevent your browser from requesting the advertisers' JavaScript code. Your browser not only won't show the ads, it won't run the code that was supposed to show them or even send a request to the advertisers' servers.

This blocks most existing tracking methods. The only thing you're not protected from is first-party tracking by the site you're actually visiting, which is impossible to fully protect against.

demosthanos··on The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs
Eventually, as long as you survive that long.

As has been said repeatedly in this thread, this change is purely a boon for existing big tech companies that now have even less to worry about from startups. It takes a startup 5 years before they'll be playing on an even field with big tech.

> if you’re operating a profitable company

You keep saying this across this thread, and keep ignoring that Section 174 has now redefined "profitable" for tax purposes to include companies who:

* Are in year 1 with no history of expenses to draw on.

* Have spent <900% of their year 1 revenue on software development expenses.

i.e., a startup that earns $1mil and spent $8mil in software dev expenses is only able to deduct 10% * 8mil = $800k of expenses, which means that as far as the government is concerned they made a profit of $200k and owe taxes on that on top of their already-net-loss of $7mil.

You can keep ignoring this fact, but ignoring it doesn't help your case. If you want to argue that this is fine and dandy you need to explain why the above math doesn't prevent new companies from competing on fair terms with big tech.

demosthanos··on The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs
I'm not sure why TFA makes it sound like almost no one has heard of it, but it was extensively discussed on HN in early 2023 as being a primary cause of layoffs, before it was cool to blame AI.

Software firms across US facing tax bills that threaten survival (924 points, 981 comments) April 18, 2023 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35614313

Ask HN: How are you handling Section 174 changes for bootstrapped companies? (298 points, 187 comments) Feb 2, 2023 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34627712

Why the big tech firms that suddenly laid off a bunch of people the instant they started looking at their 2022 tax bill didn't tell everyone explicitly that that's what was happening I can't say, but it's not like this has been happening in secret.

Obviously interest rates also play a role, and probably a larger one. But this is objectively a very very bad contributing factor, far worse than the impact of coding LLMs.

demosthanos··on The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs
Agreed. I think the article's text was responsible for the confusion in the comments prior to me posting this. They could have been much more clear and straightforward.
demosthanos··on Medieval Africans had a unique process for purifying gold with glass (2019)
Exactly. Also, OP pointedly avoided addressing the fact that the existing Somali institutions are responsible for the fact that their "democracy" devolved into warlords brutally shooting each other.

OP is saying that the old system is clearly better because when they tried the new system the old system fought back and killed people, so they shouldn't have tried to replace the old system in the first place. It's democracy's fault that Somali warlords had to be brutal to keep democracy from working. Everyone would have been better off if they had just continued to put up with the warlords' old way of working.

This logic isn't comparable to the logic of Western democracies, it's comparable to the logic of criminal mobs everywhere. Play along and no one has to get hurt.

demosthanos··on Medieval Africans had a unique process for purifying gold with glass (2019)
This is what I said:

> Which depending on one's perspective on Somalia's current state could make it deeply problematic

It's pretty hard to look at Somalia's current state and say that their current social structures are "known to work" by essentially any metric.

demosthanos··on Medieval Africans had a unique process for purifying gold with glass (2019)
> clans are small states

Nope, clans are definitionally not states for several reasons. A state has definite territory, whereas clan-type structures have tended to overlap with each other geographically because they're usually embedded in some larger society. A state by definition has centralized authority whereas clans may not.

> or whatever label you want to put on the organization that starts with small family tribes and scales to multi-continent empires

There is no such label because these organizations are not just shades on the same theme at different sizes, they're fundamentally different in character.

> that kind of society organization was more or less everywhere in the history of every human society

True, but there are wide variances in how long in the past that form of organization was dominant.

You won't see Egypt reverting to decentralized non-state clan-oriented governance any time soon because they've been ruled by one state or another for 5000 years.

demosthanos··on The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs
No. It went into effect in 2022 [0], which means the timeline absolutely does track with OP's theory. That gives a hypothetical Trump term 2 a full year to fix it but also imposes enough of a time crunch that they could plan on sabotaging attempts to fix it by another party.

I'm not saying it's the actual story, but the timeline does track.

[0] Page 60, Sec 1306(e) sets the date: https://www.congress.gov/115/bills/hr1/BILLS-115hr1enr.pdf

demosthanos··on The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs
Startups have to face that five year window every time they start up.

Each and every startup will have a year 0 where they're spending more than they earn, and under the new Section 174 they will only get to deduct 10% of their employee's salaries that year. In year two they get to deduct 20% of year 1's salaries and 10% of year 2's salaries, which is still 30% of what the established players will be able to deduct. By year 4, if they make it that far (which most startups don't) they'll finally be at 90% of a full deduction.

Add to that the fact that startups also by definition have a much higher rate of growth than established companies and you'll find that a startup almost definitionally will be paying substantially more in taxes as long as it remains a startup, because they only get to deduct an average of the last 5 years of expenses from this year's revenue in order to calculate this year's profit. That's fine when your last five years are more or less similar to this one, but it's terrible when you've been growing.

The net effect of this change can only be to disincentive startups and cement big, slow established players.

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