2,869 karma · joined March 5, 2021
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The only thing that elevated music was when people could see others choices and select music just snowballed to popularity.
Most of reality is shaped like that. Once you see that Elon musk was just in the right asshole location, then you can release the shackles of the "meritocracy" that obscures just random chance and personality choices.
Libraries are the last time americans agreed on basic principal that a public space with a public good is worth investing in everywhere.
Now even if you want your idea to compete with all the other todo apps with your special sauce, youre giving a third party your recipe. That third party ostensibly has no reason to steal it, their business model does.
So, sure, if your app is a cult of personality and nothing special, i admit it doesnt matter.
But the number of software home runs is dwarfed by all other auccess on individual products
So atleast pare of our collection of genes has added value as with random decision factors rather than find some supergene that everyone benefits from.
Now humans are just as bad, but they're not moving at the speed of compute so the posion and fabricates can dissolve over time, or just, as you've noticed turning on your news, get stuck in very stupid positions. So humans are clearly capable but clearly don't tend to do this either.
So then we dont have a real road map. The error rates, although small, acrete at exponential levels and will wash out improvements.
So I also had the idea that "if we just give it enough context, surely it'll be more powerful". But the error rates hit that squarely. The larger the context grows, the more likely it hasn't properly organized its knowledge to avoid overlapping facts.
In programming, it's worse, because a lot of the code is purposefully "DRY" and reuseable. Everye C program has a main(); is it remembering the correct main? or any of the number of same variables?
You can see an LLM is powerful but it's not ominipotent. It'll suffer very much when it starts hallucinations and context poisoning.
So, sure you can try a super ralph wiggum loop with memory, fallback safeties, etc, but you basically then need another turtle that does the same thing, and at that point, you're positing a infinite jest of ralph wiggum loops tracking each other, recursively, forever.
such a weird self centered bullshit.
Everything your building is now streaming through a third party who could steal it, the same way Amazon steals open source software and repackages it.
All you need to do is look at palentir's forward deployed engineers. Once you let a third party observe your processed, you're cloneable and replaceable _as an entity_.
I think we can look at our own human psychology as it developed into social groups. If our brains were obviously deterministic, it would be easy for people to prey upon us via structured inputs. Some level of randomness in our thought process is almost evolutionarily required to avoid becoming part of the larger super structure, similar to an ant colony.
So these AI companies are definitely more dangerous than just the "AI is super intelligence". They're basically a intelligence platform everyone is wiring into.
That's today. Tomorrow, they'll be run by an MBA which is the enshittification.
Man, people are so easily deceaved because it some how aligns with their favored prejudice.
Im convinced AI is local now. Halogen loads QFN in 30 GB at 4bits. Its token gen is slightly faster than readable. You can follow along and leave it alone based on its thinking traces.
It gets 256k context but using dynamic context pruning, i got it to loop between 64k and 128k to maximize its speed vs prefill.
Its real. If the memory cartel is busted, the moat is busted.
The <think> blocks are an attempt to explore the gradient descent space to escape local minimums and find a better global minimum to continue the descent.
While verbosity _might_ do this better, you could easily consider things like "but wait am I forgetting ...." as just one token. So if you actually do it right, you could replace all that with a "hold on" or something of a terse variety.
Other than that, no. I drag myself out to poke around occasionally because at times the local models get to far into context and refuse to do simple tasks.
That's a benified "not a drawback".
Even if these models are smart enough to reorient themselves, they get entirely stuck in a desert and now you're asking someone to just pull up stakes and digg them out even thought they only watched them get there and the UI provides so much speed that no human can comprehend how they got there in the first place.
It's like asking a pilot to take over in an emergency situation when they're not tasked with any of the every day requirements of the job. The orgs are relying on borrowed time of experienced professionals, and that's going to erode away and what replaces it is mostly people who understand how to navigate context but not use any of the _classic_ tools.
It's a real conundrum and won't be easily surfaced but for a decade.
I'd say what's important is seeing how the American administration is embracing this stuff.