Wikipedia link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voss_%28water%29
2,557 karma · joined October 17, 2013
Strategy/Founder @ gridstatus.io
Wikipedia link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voss_%28water%29
The securities in question are Capital Appreciation Bonds (CABs).
"Hayes has devoted the past fifteen years to studying atrazine, and during that time scientists around the world have expanded on his findings, suggesting that the herbicide is associated with birth defects in humans as well as in animals. The company documents show that, while Hayes was studying atrazine, Syngenta was studying him, as he had long suspected. Syngenta’s public-relations team had drafted a list of four goals. The first was “discredit Hayes.” In a spiral-bound notebook, Syngenta’s communications manager, Sherry Ford, who referred to Hayes by his initials, wrote that the company could “prevent citing of TH data by revealing him as noncredible.” He was a frequent topic of conversation at company meetings. Syngenta looked for ways to “exploit Hayes’ faults/problems.” “If TH involved in scandal, enviros will drop him,” Ford wrote. She observed that Hayes “grew up in world (S.C.) that wouldn’t accept him,” “needs adulation,” “doesn’t sleep,” was “scarred for life.” She wrote, “What’s motivating Hayes?—basic question.”"
and
"Another set of ideas, discussed at several meetings, was to conduct “systematic rebuttals of all TH appearances.” One of the company’s communications consultants said in an e-mail that she wanted to obtain Hayes’s calendar of speaking engagements, so that Syngenta could “start reaching out to the potential audiences with the Error vs. Truth Sheet,” which would provide “irrefutable evidence of his polluted messages.”"
also
"In another paper, in Policy Perspective, Jason Rohr, an ecologist at the University of South Florida, who served on an E.P.A. panel, criticized the “lucrative ‘science for hire’ industry, where scientists are employed to dispute data.” He wrote that a Syngenta-funded review of the atrazine literature had arguably misrepresented more than fifty studies and made a hundred and forty-four inaccurate or misleading statements, of which “96.5% appeared to be beneficial for Syngenta.” Rohr, who has conducted several experiments involving atrazine, said that, at conferences, “I regularly get peppered with questions from Syngenta cronies trying to discount my research. They try to poke holes in the research rather than appreciate the adverse effects of the chemicals.” He said, “I have colleagues whom I’ve tried to recruit, and they’ve told me that they’re not willing to delve into this sort of research, because they don’t want the headache of having to defend their credibility.”"
This canal could also dramatically impact the current shipping regime, although I don't really have the expertise to make specific comments.
On a personal note, I have visited Nicaragua, and can't help but think that the proposed canal would dramatically alter the country (currently one of the safest third-world countries in the world and certainly on a slow upswing into what many people picture as a second Costa Rica [dependent on politics of course]). In particular, I can only assume it would destroy Ometepe in its current form.
Here's a simple study that discusses a lot of that: http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc00/professi...
Personally, I found it pretty easy to live in two different college towns (less than 100k pop), not own a car, and enjoy relatively walkable areas. Then I moved to TN for work and got laughs in the interview when I asked about public transportation. I imagine the suburban reflex kicks in strongly for some people once they have a kid or two.
The Geography of Nowhere: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geography_of_Nowhere
The City in History: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_City_in_History
I would be amazed if someone could go 5/40 in predicting black swan events under their original definition.
To keep it simple let's invest $100 in each of those 40 companies. He defines success as companies that have grown at least 100x over. We know 5 companies have hit that mark and know basically nothing about the other 35 that we'll just consider failures (even though they might only be 10x or 50x[a success in other areas for sure]).
Failed$ = ($100x)35 x is the multiplier on that money across all 35 companies. Perhaps he lost it all and it's 0, maybe it's slightly above 1, who knows. Regardless, in this totally mad eup case the total potential loss (ignoring potential to be invested elsewhere) is $3,500 or 87.5% of initial outlay.
The remainder using the simple information and interpretation available to us looks like this:
Success$ = ($100* 100) * 5 = $50,000
That is 12.5x the initial outlay of $4,000. Making 12.5x your outlay in presumably only a handful of years is massive. Obviously growth doesn't mean exactly 100X, but I just wanted to show that a handful of hits (and I think 5/40 is bigger than a handful) can easily pay for everything else and more.
Reread the article, this is only 2-3.5 years of duration. That seems insanely quick for these kinds of results.
Lottery is totally not black swan, which is exactly what I was trying to say. Despite having prior knowledge of the company's situation (unlike a completely random lottery), it seems to me that these investments are closer to the lottery than black swan.
You don't place bets on a specific black swan, but you could place a different, outside bet on a disrupting event (kind of the idea of antifragile, benefiting from disorder). I think under Taleb's comments in Antifragile, living life as an artist as opposed to someone who is inherently reliant on the stability of say, an office job, is placing that bet every day.
His rules:
1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
On a related note, Antifragile is a fun read. Taleb is extremely sure of himself, and extremely passionate. His books and ideas (culminating in Antifragile) can be pretty seductive in the moment.
"But Lewis began to worry that mathematics had assumed an unhealthy role in the district. “Data” and “accountability” had become almost magic words: if administrators repeated them enough, it seemed they believed that scores should rise, even if there hadn’t been significant enhancements in instruction. Lewis welcomed the district’s new emphasis on reading—teachers got specialized training and taught reading more intensively—but many of the other reforms were oriented around deadlines and time frames. Lewis said, “We had two weeks to teach percentages, and if you’re still on percentages at week three, because your kids don’t get it yet, they’ll say, ‘You don’t teach well enough!’ Well, come, now, we are dealing with human brains.” He continued, “I sincerely believe that demographics does not determine destiny. But you have to be patient.”"
Water and Texas: http://www.mensjournal.com/magazine/print-view/who-stole-the...
Arizona and wildfires (and water): http://www.azcentral.com/news/wildfires/yarnell/arizona-wild...
SoCal's current water management (shorter than the other articles): http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-famiglietti-south...
The rough idea is to use local, endemic plants. They'll have a much higher tolerance range for your area's pests and climate conditions. I understand the appeal of grass, and certainly love lying down to read on a slightly sloping lawn, but there are certain areas where the combination of soil and climate should make it inordinately expensive to grow and maintain one. We just collectively happen to provide huge subsidies (in the form of extremely cheap water and minimal restrictions on use) for households that want to have a lawn in those areas. That's also ignoring all of the other negative environmental and infrastructural externalities around everyone having a lawn.
I actually have a friend in Cornell's PhD economics program right now, and he's warned me about math (and he majored in math) and that Real Analysis in particular is crucial. That's what most concerns me, as I've leaned on my physics-PhD significant other in the past for some math-related help.
That's a really good point about field-specific economics programs, I hadn't really considered that, but it makes a lot of sense given my interests and current abilities. It seemed to me that energy was weirdly neglected when looking through programs (even though it has so many neat peculiarities and inefficiencies), so it's good to know I'm not the only person who has noticed that.
Thankfully, I'm not looking at it for the immediate future as my current position will last a few years (we have boatloads of funding and bipartisan support), and I'm at possibly the easiest national lab to get a staff position and advance without a PhD (Oak Ridge). Down the line though, I know I love academia and teaching, so I'll probably go back, and your advice is super helpful to think about in the interim, thanks again!
I guess my biggest concern is the viability of pursuing a PhD in economics without having a previous degree in econ. I have a BS and MS in environmental science and an MPA in energy policy/economics. I think I have stronger scientific chops than many economists, but I don't know how valuable that actually is.
Also, it seems to me that the general market for energy economists is very strong, and will remain that way for quite some time. Do you think that's accurate?
I love plowing through data and developing methods and analysis to try and draw out relationships and show why things are what they are. I know that sounds incredibly vague, but as far as I can tell economics is the field that most closely aligns with this in the context of energy and the environment.
You have any advice/opinions on economics PhDs?
It did pass the muster of Cornell's review board, but that was after the data was actually collected, which amounts to ex post facto approval.
The badger hydroelectric plant in Wisconsin is 86 years old, and that's just one I happened to know because I collected data on it recently. If you go further east in the states and then across the Atlantic, the plants can get older than that as well. http://www.kaukaunautilities.com/about_us/default.asp?Catego...
EDIT: Oh, and in terms of cost, when planning out capital expenses most hydro projects are assuming a shorter lifespan than actual. I don't have numbers in front of me, but I feel like costs are generally accounted for a 20-40 year lifespan (weighted towards 20), although they do expect the plants to operate for 2-3x as long.
I'm actually working on national-level hydro assessments at a national lab. We don't really predict more huge reservoir installments, but there is plenty of capacity out there. These set-ups (particularly non-powered dams) are also generally pretty cheap per kWh generated over their lifetimes (which in some cases reaches 70+ years).
You might be more prone towards agreeableness around others sharing your faith, but the more ensconced you are, the less likely you'll be open towards people with differences of opinion.
EDIT: Searching through the linked research paper, I couldn't find a single mention of "faith", "religion", or "religious", so I guess that was perhaps not considered.
EDIXx2: I think an interesting followup (to the research and possibly the tool) would be an attempt to discern how siloed away each person is and assigning a score to weight their other values. If you're in an echo chamber of everyone being #blessed, it's a bit different from seeing a wide range of opinions and activity. Even something simple like the mean distance of friends from the user's location, maybe with a foreign multiplier, I dunno.
EDITx3: Not even just distance, facebook has that about section as well. Obviously, many people have non-standard entries there, so some by-hand correction would need to be employed, but you could at least get a sense of someone's network variety.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-brazils-world-cup-to...
http://www.thearda.com/Archive/Files/Downloads/RCMSCY10_DL2....