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cwal37

2,557 karma · joined October 17, 2013

I'm into energy and the environment.

Strategy/Founder @ gridstatus.io

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cwal37··on Judge rejects $324.5M settlement over Apple, Google hiring
Why are you drinking expensive water from halfway around the world? As someone who subsists on lowly tap water, I had to google it, and my mind is absolutely boggled. Not exactly doing yourself any favors with that whole perception issue. A glass bottle too! Despite the ease with which you might think glass would be recycled, its place in the waste stream actually makes it much more difficult (sorting difficulty and disparity between glass). Many places that have plastic and paper recycling won't take glass.

Wikipedia link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voss_%28water%29

cwal37··on How Wall Street Tobacco Deals Left States With Billions in Toxic Debt
An investigative piece from ProPublica into the piecemeal securitization of the 1998 tobacco settlement revenue, and the increasing toxicity of the ensuing debt. States essentially sold out their future revenue stream, and committed to paying more back out in order to plug short-term budgetary holes. These obligations extend for decades, and have ballooned into the billions of dollars, dwarfing what the actual payouts would have been. It is unlikely that these bonds will ever be repaid to the agreed upon terms.

The securities in question are Capital Appreciation Bonds (CABs).

cwal37··on A Valuable Reputation – Syngenta's Atrazine and Tyrone Hayes
A chilling story about Syngenta, the makers of atrazine (second most-used herbicide in the United States), and Tyrone Hayes, a Berkeley professor of biology whose research had shown atrazine to disrupt the sexual development of frogs. Hayes considered himself an outsider in the scientific community, and some of his beliefs that Syngenta was pursuing him began to seem outlandish, only to be shown true. I will let some quotes speak for the article:

"Hayes has devoted the past fifteen years to studying atrazine, and during that time scientists around the world have expanded on his findings, suggesting that the herbicide is associated with birth defects in humans as well as in animals. The company documents show that, while Hayes was studying atrazine, Syngenta was studying him, as he had long suspected. Syngenta’s public-relations team had drafted a list of four goals. The first was “discredit Hayes.” In a spiral-bound notebook, Syngenta’s communications manager, Sherry Ford, who referred to Hayes by his initials, wrote that the company could “prevent citing of TH data by revealing him as noncredible.” He was a frequent topic of conversation at company meetings. Syngenta looked for ways to “exploit Hayes’ faults/problems.” “If TH involved in scandal, enviros will drop him,” Ford wrote. She observed that Hayes “grew up in world (S.C.) that wouldn’t accept him,” “needs adulation,” “doesn’t sleep,” was “scarred for life.” She wrote, “What’s motivating Hayes?—basic question.”"

and

"Another set of ideas, discussed at several meetings, was to conduct “systematic rebuttals of all TH appearances.” One of the company’s communications consultants said in an e-mail that she wanted to obtain Hayes’s calendar of speaking engagements, so that Syngenta could “start reaching out to the potential audiences with the Error vs. Truth Sheet,” which would provide “irrefutable evidence of his polluted messages.”"

also

"In another paper, in Policy Perspective, Jason Rohr, an ecologist at the University of South Florida, who served on an E.P.A. panel, criticized the “lucrative ‘science for hire’ industry, where scientists are employed to dispute data.” He wrote that a Syngenta-funded review of the atrazine literature had arguably misrepresented more than fifty studies and made a hundred and forty-four inaccurate or misleading statements, of which “96.5% appeared to be beneficial for Syngenta.” Rohr, who has conducted several experiments involving atrazine, said that, at conferences, “I regularly get peppered with questions from Syngenta cronies trying to discount my research. They try to poke holes in the research rather than appreciate the adverse effects of the chemicals.” He said, “I have colleagues whom I’ve tried to recruit, and they’ve told me that they’re not willing to delve into this sort of research, because they don’t want the headache of having to defend their credibility.”"

cwal37··on The Comandante’s Canal
A profile of the recently re-proposed (Nicaragua was one of the original Central American canal locations, along with Panama) Nicaraguan canal, it's backing, and the dissent. Nicaragua is the 2nd poorest country in the Americas, only behind Haiti, and Ortega (the Nicaraguan president) has promised the canal (back by Chinese investment) would significantly alleviate the country's poverty. There is minimal faith in the project amongst the average citizen, and the political opposition has been vociferous in dissent.

This canal could also dramatically impact the current shipping regime, although I don't really have the expertise to make specific comments.

On a personal note, I have visited Nicaragua, and can't help but think that the proposed canal would dramatically alter the country (currently one of the safest third-world countries in the world and certainly on a slow upswing into what many people picture as a second Costa Rica [dependent on politics of course]). In particular, I can only assume it would destroy Ometepe in its current form.

cwal37··on The Suburbs Will Die: One Man's Fight to Fix the American Dream
The Bay Area is about as skewed as you can get (outside of NYC and parts of Boston/DC). Definitely would have put a gigantic qualifier on your statement.
cwal37··on The Suburbs Will Die: One Man's Fight to Fix the American Dream
That's not really accurate. Suburbs have a lower overall amount of crime, but you need to think about relative rates of crime based on the number of people living in an area.

Here's a simple study that discusses a lot of that: http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc00/professi...

Personally, I found it pretty easy to live in two different college towns (less than 100k pop), not own a car, and enjoy relatively walkable areas. Then I moved to TN for work and got laughs in the interview when I asked about public transportation. I imagine the suburban reflex kicks in strongly for some people once they have a kid or two.

cwal37··on The Suburbs Will Die: One Man's Fight to Fix the American Dream
Reading on the topic:

The Geography of Nowhere: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geography_of_Nowhere

The City in History: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_City_in_History

cwal37··on Black Swan Seed Rounds
I just said group because presumably he wasn't the only investor in those companies, so a group of people stand to profit. If he was the only investor I would have said individual. It's also meant to highlight the fact that multiple people are in on this, whereas an actual black swan event is something that tends to be much more difficult to predict or be a part of.

I would be amazed if someone could go 5/40 in predicting black swan events under their original definition.

cwal37··on Black Swan Seed Rounds
I think that 1/8 sounds amazing actually, let's look at some totally theoretical and extremely simple numbers (basically all we can work with in this case without doing some significant legwork to try and sniff out the actual investments).

To keep it simple let's invest $100 in each of those 40 companies. He defines success as companies that have grown at least 100x over. We know 5 companies have hit that mark and know basically nothing about the other 35 that we'll just consider failures (even though they might only be 10x or 50x[a success in other areas for sure]).

Failed$ = ($100x)35 x is the multiplier on that money across all 35 companies. Perhaps he lost it all and it's 0, maybe it's slightly above 1, who knows. Regardless, in this totally mad eup case the total potential loss (ignoring potential to be invested elsewhere) is $3,500 or 87.5% of initial outlay.

The remainder using the simple information and interpretation available to us looks like this:

Success$ = ($100* 100) * 5 = $50,000

That is 12.5x the initial outlay of $4,000. Making 12.5x your outlay in presumably only a handful of years is massive. Obviously growth doesn't mean exactly 100X, but I just wanted to show that a handful of hits (and I think 5/40 is bigger than a handful) can easily pay for everything else and more.

Reread the article, this is only 2-3.5 years of duration. That seems insanely quick for these kinds of results.

cwal37··on Black Swan Seed Rounds
Ahh, I see the confusion now, sorry. Thanks, edited for clarity.
cwal37··on Black Swan Seed Rounds
The limit doesn't matter so much as striking it in the first place. Realistically, all of the mentioned investments are within the realm of reasonable thought. The presumption of a black swan is that it is completely outside the ability for one to rationally assess a system then predict it with decent success. 5/40 would be a phenomenally high success rate.

Lottery is totally not black swan, which is exactly what I was trying to say. Despite having prior knowledge of the company's situation (unlike a completely random lottery), it seems to me that these investments are closer to the lottery than black swan.

You don't place bets on a specific black swan, but you could place a different, outside bet on a disrupting event (kind of the idea of antifragile, benefiting from disorder). I think under Taleb's comments in Antifragile, living life as an artist as opposed to someone who is inherently reliant on the stability of say, an office job, is placing that bet every day.

cwal37··on Black Swan Seed Rounds
I don't think black swan is an appropriate title. This investing is more like when a small group of people split a large powerball jackpot; statistically unlikely, but not really fitting the definition of a black swan (at least as proposed by Taleb).

His rules:

1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.

2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).

3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

On a related note, Antifragile is a fun read. Taleb is extremely sure of himself, and extremely passionate. His books and ideas (culminating in Antifragile) can be pretty seductive in the moment.

cwal37··on Wrong Answer
Have a quote:

"But Lewis began to worry that mathematics had assumed an unhealthy role in the district. “Data” and “accountability” had become almost magic words: if administrators repeated them enough, it seemed they believed that scores should rise, even if there hadn’t been significant enhancements in instruction. Lewis welcomed the district’s new emphasis on reading—teachers got specialized training and taught reading more intensively—but many of the other reforms were oriented around deadlines and time frames. Lewis said, “We had two weeks to teach percentages, and if you’re still on percentages at week three, because your kids don’t get it yet, they’ll say, ‘You don’t teach well enough!’ Well, come, now, we are dealing with human brains.” He continued, “I sincerely believe that demographics does not determine destiny. But you have to be patient.”"

cwal37··on Mapping the Spread of Drought Across the U.S
A few water and the southwest related articles:

Water and Texas: http://www.mensjournal.com/magazine/print-view/who-stole-the...

Arizona and wildfires (and water): http://www.azcentral.com/news/wildfires/yarnell/arizona-wild...

SoCal's current water management (shorter than the other articles): http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-famiglietti-south...

cwal37··on Organic Lawn Care For the Cheap and Lazy
Instead of worrying so much about a lawn, why not look into natural landscaping? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_landscaping

The rough idea is to use local, endemic plants. They'll have a much higher tolerance range for your area's pests and climate conditions. I understand the appeal of grass, and certainly love lying down to read on a slightly sloping lawn, but there are certain areas where the combination of soil and climate should make it inordinately expensive to grow and maintain one. We just collectively happen to provide huge subsidies (in the form of extremely cheap water and minimal restrictions on use) for households that want to have a lawn in those areas. That's also ignoring all of the other negative environmental and infrastructural externalities around everyone having a lawn.

cwal37··on Inside Monsanto, America's Third-Most-Hated Company
Oh yeah, I know what the company is, that's why I find it interesting. I was curious what you, personally, were working on.
cwal37··on Inside Monsanto, America's Third-Most-Hated Company
What are you doing there? As an environmental scientist/economist who loves working with data-driven projects, that company always really intrigued me.
cwal37··on A comparison of programming languages in economics
Thanks a bunch!

I actually have a friend in Cornell's PhD economics program right now, and he's warned me about math (and he majored in math) and that Real Analysis in particular is crucial. That's what most concerns me, as I've leaned on my physics-PhD significant other in the past for some math-related help.

That's a really good point about field-specific economics programs, I hadn't really considered that, but it makes a lot of sense given my interests and current abilities. It seemed to me that energy was weirdly neglected when looking through programs (even though it has so many neat peculiarities and inefficiencies), so it's good to know I'm not the only person who has noticed that.

Thankfully, I'm not looking at it for the immediate future as my current position will last a few years (we have boatloads of funding and bipartisan support), and I'm at possibly the easiest national lab to get a staff position and advance without a PhD (Oak Ridge). Down the line though, I know I love academia and teaching, so I'll probably go back, and your advice is super helpful to think about in the interim, thanks again!

cwal37··on A comparison of programming languages in economics
Huh, some of your papers sound like ideas I sketched out in my commonplace book (particularly the ones on oil prices in the context of the larger economy), looks like I'm a few years behind.

I guess my biggest concern is the viability of pursuing a PhD in economics without having a previous degree in econ. I have a BS and MS in environmental science and an MPA in energy policy/economics. I think I have stronger scientific chops than many economists, but I don't know how valuable that actually is.

Also, it seems to me that the general market for energy economists is very strong, and will remain that way for quite some time. Do you think that's accurate?

I love plowing through data and developing methods and analysis to try and draw out relationships and show why things are what they are. I know that sounds incredibly vague, but as far as I can tell economics is the field that most closely aligns with this in the context of energy and the environment.

cwal37··on A comparison of programming languages in economics
Hey, that's really neat. I'm doing a post-masters right now in energy economics and have been transitioning into using python for everything (from previously using Matlab or whatever was available), but I'm eyeing an economics PhD down the line.

You have any advice/opinions on economics PhDs?

cwal37··on Facebook emotion manipulation study: an explanation
Universities and think tanks have internal review boards for a reason. The fact that Facebook can make use of its users' data in other (business-related) avenues does not excuse them from the most basic of research ethics.

It did pass the muster of Cornell's review board, but that was after the data was actually collected, which amounts to ex post facto approval.

cwal37··on The Day We Set the Colorado River Free
I submitted this a few weeks ago and it quickly died, but you might find it also interesting: http://www.azcentral.com/news/wildfires/yarnell/arizona-wild...
cwal37··on The Day We Set the Colorado River Free
Well, run-of-river installations actually don't have dams, and you can prevent most fish with just some mesh, so you're avoiding that impact entirely.
cwal37··on The Day We Set the Colorado River Free
Some last longer, some die quicker, it depends on the conditions and upkeep for a particular installation. I threw out 70 years off the top of my head to demonstrate that they tend to last a relatively long time. It also depends on what you consider to be "replacement" vs. "repair". Sometimes all you have left is a concrete shell with rusted out turbine husks, in other cases you just need to replace a few parts. Hydroelectric generation (and water-power in general) has been around for a pretty long time, and there are a lot of different local implementations out there when you get into the details.

The badger hydroelectric plant in Wisconsin is 86 years old, and that's just one I happened to know because I collected data on it recently. If you go further east in the states and then across the Atlantic, the plants can get older than that as well. http://www.kaukaunautilities.com/about_us/default.asp?Catego...

EDIT: Oh, and in terms of cost, when planning out capital expenses most hydro projects are assuming a shorter lifespan than actual. I don't have numbers in front of me, but I feel like costs are generally accounted for a 20-40 year lifespan (weighted towards 20), although they do expect the plants to operate for 2-3x as long.

cwal37··on The Day We Set the Colorado River Free
It's also a misconception to equate huge-reservoir hydro with all hydro. The Norwegians have incredibly high head, phenomenally efficient hydro in the mountains with minimal environmental impact. We have run of river hydroelectric in the states that diverts some water via penstock, as well as canal-based systems and those that utilize Army Corp dams. In fact, there is significant non-powered dam resource available: http://nhaap.ornl.gov/content/non-powered-dam-potential

I'm actually working on national-level hydro assessments at a national lab. We don't really predict more huge reservoir installments, but there is plenty of capacity out there. These set-ups (particularly non-powered dams) are also generally pretty cheap per kWh generated over their lifetimes (which in some cases reaches 70+ years).

cwal37··on Wealth Levels, Wealth Inequality, and the Great Recession [pdf]
Not exactly. The 25th percentile's wealth was dropping even before the recession, which suggests some additional downward pressure, although I am not sure what that could be off the top of my head.
cwal37··on Greenhouse: Browser plugin that shows politicians' funders
Ah thanks, I got so excited when I read the article (because this is a super neat idea) I completely spaced on linking back to the project.
cwal37··on Five labs – See the personality behind your posts
Also, being religious seems to be highly correlated with "agreeableness", as the example words include: Christ, church, praise, blessed, Christmas, psalm, and prayers.

You might be more prone towards agreeableness around others sharing your faith, but the more ensconced you are, the less likely you'll be open towards people with differences of opinion.

EDIT: Searching through the linked research paper, I couldn't find a single mention of "faith", "religion", or "religious", so I guess that was perhaps not considered.

EDIXx2: I think an interesting followup (to the research and possibly the tool) would be an attempt to discern how siloed away each person is and assigning a score to weight their other values. If you're in an echo chamber of everyone being #blessed, it's a bit different from seeing a wide range of opinions and activity. Even something simple like the mean distance of friends from the user's location, maybe with a foreign multiplier, I dunno.

EDITx3: Not even just distance, facebook has that about section as well. Obviously, many people have non-standard entries there, so some by-hand correction would need to be employed, but you could at least get a sense of someone's network variety.

cwal37··on FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup Predictions
And here's the link to some discussion of their model in case you miss it.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-brazils-world-cup-to...

cwal37··on The second-largest religion in each state
I've been trying to dig through their data to answer your question, but I don't have SPSS/STATA, and the SPSS viewer I downloaded was pretty ineffective. It's here if you want to try and find it:

http://www.thearda.com/Archive/Files/Downloads/RCMSCY10_DL2....

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