46 karma · joined November 24, 2010
If you take all the money (100%) from people who build and make things and give it to people who don't have jobs to spent, in the short term things will be bought and everything thing will appear stimulated. In the long run your entire economy will collapse as your capital base erodes. The basic Keynesian error is to not distinguish between purely consumptive (why don't create jobs to build ships, fill them full of gold and new technology, and then drive them into the Pacific and sink them?) and productive goods which actually build economic wealth and raise the standard of living.
One of the major reasons all the consumer wireless devices suck is that only small slices of junk spectrum was given away to these unlicensed devices (ISM band). Additionally, the chaotic nature of open spectrum requires different contention protocols effect the efficiency and jitter characteristics of wireless networks. When you can't just call the feds to kick people off your band you have to "play nice" is possibly wasteful ways.
The original wifi protocol basically took carrier sense multiple access with collision detection (CSMA/CD) and turned it into collision avoidance (CSMA/CA). Instead of backing of after a collision (which we can't detect in wireless) we back off before every transmission - cutting throughput in half.
Many of these articles then extrapolate the ARM X86 battle into the server space - which does not follow. The mobile disruption is that smaller devices will replace laptops and potentially desktops with newer simplified usage models and not that X86 will be wholesale swapped for ARM in every case. Cloud computing does present though a separate potential to disrupt server X86 that companies like Tilera are pursuing.
Ten years ago joining a major corporation gave you access to resources you didn't have on your own. Exchange was better than Yahoo mail. The T20 cost so much almost no one would buy it for personal use.
Today when student graduate they are often used to and already own Mac laptops or high-end PCs and are using Google services. They can lose productivity going from these (cloud) consumer to enterprise technology systems.
I recommend the Gartner report "Gartner_Report_BYOC_checklist.pdf" on BYOC.
There are also battle groups with F-18s and AWACS planes and so on that are much nearer than the F22s in Hawaii.
When disruptive technologies achieve the minimum required feature set to meet market demand, market competition shifts to other criteria. One case study in the book describes how cable actuated earth movers companies felt save as hydraulic actuated earth movers could never move as much earth and initially had zero commercial applications. They still can't. Yet hydraulic actuated earth movers have almost completely replaced cable driven ones, except at the market edges that require extreme performance, by establishing a foot hold beneath the existing market (ditch diggers) and innovating upwards.
Web applications are simple compared to desktop applications. They are constrained by web standards and run in sandboxed environments. The question is not whether web applications can exceed Desktop applications but whether they can meet market demand.
Software + Services (a term Microsoft created when faced with the Internet Services Disruption) is a hybrid, transitional strategy for desktop application companies that makes sense in partially connected environments. This is the model of Dropbox and every other data replication provider. Over time, perhaps with ubiquitous 4G networks, we'll see how this fares against low maintenance operating systems and zero maintenance web applications.
The market incumbent strives upmarket and creates a performance oversupply (a surplus of features in excess of customer demand) which opens space below for a downmarket competitor to disrupt upmarket.
From a business perspective, the desktop industry was still to peak and then shifted to a luggable version of the same ecosystem with laptops.
I recently made a comment about this on an Intel blog article (SC10: Jeff’s Notebook - Innovation and Disruption: How a Successful Company can be gone in 10 Years): http://intel.ly/dZAxKk