1,032 karma · joined March 6, 2009
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Perhaps they're not using just frequency to coordinate (solar/wind perhaps needs a sidechannel?), and someone on their grid in a politically unstable area is using power without reporting on the side-channel. Hence the frequency drops due to the unaccounted load.
We find the hardest part of homeschooling so far is that a lot of the infrastructure for homeschooling is christian. There might be a market for a startup that caters to scientific-minded people who home-school. It seems to be a growing trend.
The pattern of development:
- Make A
- Make B better
- A now broken because it had dependencies on B
- (maybe) Realize a fundamental pattern that unifies A and B.
- (maybe) Unify principles so that A and B become lemmas.
This is a very scientific way of working. The truth emerges as the byproduct of keeping all the plates spinning in your model. As long as you remain aware of all the plates, you'll eventually realize something deep. It's also the strongest argument I can think of in favour of rewriting a codebase plan-9 style. Once you have the truth in mind, bake your knowledge for big wins. Baked knowledge can form the foundation upon which you can climb higher.But many developers don't keep all the plates spinning. If you don't have everything (or some subset) making sense in some unified theory, don't rewrite. Without a unified grand theory, then you can't make something better. This is why I write unit tests — doing so keeps your plates spinning. It's not about proving your language and libraries are doing what is expected (although that's valuable too in some languages without unified libraries) — it's about showing that everything is working together the way your grand theory intends. Unit tests should be written to reject some part of the null hypothesis.
There are very few other alternatives that can claim the same. Perhaps Hydro? Solar panels don't offset their construction CO2 costs, and in fact almost can't even pay back their own construction energy costs if you factor in batteries plus materials, mining, and shipping.
I don't think they predicted depletion for our current era in any of the models. The only model that even came close to that was the "Business As Usual" model, which predicts a peak of production around our present time. Looking at current production levels we do see a levelling off of oil production mostly due to declining output from major fields. [0] That said, certainly depletion is a very strong claim that no one has made.
> - the price mechanism combined with technological progress seems pretty able to set incentives straight. Look at what the oil price bubble of the '00s did for electric cars and batteries in the now.
First of all, switching to electric cars will amount to a shift in what the automobile fleet burns for fuel. Instead of gasoline and diesel, they burn whatever the power plant burns, and that's still predominantly petroleum-sourced. Additionally, current lithium supplies can not support massive expansion of the fleet. If Tesla builds all the gigafactories necessary to convert the fleet (let's assume 100 million EVs per year, which is approx current auto production; requiring 800,000 metric tons of lithium) and runs them for 17 years, they will deplete the known reserves of lithium (13.5 million tons of reserves[1] divided by 800,000 = 16.9 years). Speculative Estimates from[2]
Next, A lot of the material required for an EV still has to be sourced from petroleum resources. The metals need to be refined with high-heat processes. The wheels are rubber and sourced from natural gas or oil. Lots of plastics are involved. Mining and transporting the raw resources is still done with diesel machinery.
Finally, even if EV rollout is possible, we can't do it for all the people expected to be buying cars in the future. Even replacing the developed world's fleet is a major challenge, but doing it for the world looks insurmountable at this point. Given these real constraints, I'm willing to grant that price mechanism will not overcome these problems, except insofar that it can exclude most of the world from owning cars and other resource-consuming stuff.
> - The world has seen massively more population growth than they modelled, but not the accompanying food shortages they predicted.
The business-as-usual model did not properly account for how extensively we started turning petroleum into food. These days, there is a tremendous amount of embodied energy in most of the industrial food system.
> I'd argue the shortages of the '80s and '90s are over, although local situations obviously have tragic effects (Syria, Venezuela).
South Sudan, Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, Syria, Venezuela. Also likely near-term famines in North Korea and Egypt. There are more active famines in 2017 than any recent time. Whether the number of affected people is similarly high is unknown at present.
> -Material goods production (plastics) is at an all time high.
I'm not sure why this is listed as a positive. Is that what you meant?
> -Many more humans alive at lower poverty levels than ever before and ever imagined by the Club of Rome
Some models they presented in the book had far more wealth, far lower poverty, and far higher populations than our present. In these models, pollution was also far higher than our present situation. The point was that resources inevitably get converted to pollution somehow. The models show that if we find a solution to our resource problems, we'll end up with more pollution.
[0]: http://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-october-production-data/ [1]: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs... [2]: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/is-there-enough...
2. You're right, which is part of why we bailed on the situation while the real-estate market supported our exit and converting the assets into something real.
3. the time it buys you depends on it's value.
4. Zero mortgages right now actually. you're not a careful reader.
1. Is money really a precaution? Why is money in the bank guaranteed safety from a bad spell? Can't the government take everything but 100k if they need to?
2. Why isn't having food production on site considered guaranteed safety against a bad spell? Between our savings and the food production on site we could survive in place for a decade. When we lived in a place-in-the-city working two jobs with all of our assets in a (few) mortgages we were two or three paycheques (or a bad tenant) away from losing everything. The bank had a lien on all of our assets, even though we were nominally a 1%er.
3. What can money really fix in a bad-spell? I mean, can you buy skills? Can you buy relationships? Those things have to be made. Nevermind that if the bad spell is actually bad for more than just you, money might not have the same value as it does.
But I will grant that money does have a lot of benefits too, which is why:
4. I have money in the bank... I mean, why are they mutually exclusive for you?
I figure thing happening in food right now is not so much a trend. Food prices are artificially low by historical measures. As the subsidies granted by cheap oil-based fertilizers goes away and diesel-powered harvesting starts to be less cost-competitive, the prices will go back to historical norms. People want the industrial system to stop cutting the corners they have been (believe me they tell us) so we make profit from those who are ahead of the curve.
The way I look at it: normal food has been getting more expensive over the past 100 years and is now considered "boutique" by some. There has been a fad in cheap food that is starting to wind up as it is no longer possible to maintain. It's time to get in front of that before your food costs rise. More importantly it's time to start teaching kids how to do it too as they're going to really be in the post-climate-change world where viable solar-powered food is the most valuable thing to have a startup in.
Why'd I switch to rural life? Quality of life. When we had kids and got a glimpse of what life would be like with daycare, two people commuting, etc, we got scared and made a plan. It's been 5 or 6 years and still enjoying selling expensive pasture fed eggs etc. I like working from home and having no childcare expenses. Everyone is happy and healthy and we have time to raise our kids.
I remember the limp office parties when we reached GA on some new release, and we'd eat cheap cake. Then I think of how we practically dance and shout at the sky in joy when we all finish digging up all the potatoes. The comparison is stark. Modern life is a dystopic hellscape from this perspective.
By the end I noticed I have really developed a voice. He has developed a richer vocabulary (dad what is "clemency") and is better at reading between the lines. Certainly enjoyable and educational for everyone. Looking forward to the next series we read and will miss this when he starts reading this stuff on his own. Was thinking of volenteeering at an old folks home.
To be fair it hasn't all been rainbows and butterflies. There have been a lot of really bad problems caused by this unholy union. I'm not even sure it's net-better. The level of environmental destruction we've caused, combined with the difficulty of doing anything about said damage, could negate all of the benefits we've achieved.
In an affine type system, every variable is used at most once. But C++ instantiations for RAII are not destructed more than once. Each instantiation has exactly one destruction.
Linear types nicely generalizes this so that we don't need RAII wrappers or whatever. Just produce values and pass them around, eventually to be consumed. It feels like this is a powerful language idea.
To keep track of any temporary complexity I use a hard-cover notebook that keeps track of the complexity until I find a way to eliminate it.
The goal is to build abstractions so that the details don't matter. Managing detail is a trap. Complexity and "managing" said complexity is a code smell.
People notice the extra latency though. I sure do. I remember what it's like to have a CRT getting photons displayed nearly immediately after a keystroke. That's exactly what makes an old 286 feel snappier than a 2017 macbook pro while typing.
Governments of the time forced (conspired to force?) people to pick a family name for identification and tax purposes and many simply picked their profession, location, or fathers name. Some families were multigenerational smiths for example but that had more to do with the the way people learned their trades.