591 karma · joined March 8, 2017
(With that said, Timsort must be faster in practice than this kind of retrofitted unstable sort. I’m curious how large the difference is.)
This is not a coincidence. If you look at my own public work at e.g. https://github.com/chrchang/plink-ng/tree/master/2.0/ and https://github.com/grailbio/base/tree/master/simd , you can see that I play the role of the "not yet smart enough" engineer, not the manager.
This requires some luck, but there definitely are things you can do to help the process along. In particular, I recommend allowing some probably-unnecessary complexity -- I'd expect your engineers to innovate less and learn at a slower rate if you try too hard to stamp this out -- but be strategic in where you allow it. Software that is already load-bearing for your business should be subject to higher standards. Set an expectation that stable functionality becomes easier rather than harder to work with over time. When the backend has to become more complex to achieve performance goals, ask your engineers to do their best to encapsulate that complexity, and keep the higher-level interfaces simple.
I agree that he may still salvage the situation, and I hope to reactivate or create a new account if/when that happens. For now, though, the best thing I can do is reinforce the signal that this was a major misstep, for a reason he should be well aware of: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1533616384747442176
This is a reason I haven't made active use of DCA. But DCA doesn't give up much, either, so I'm fine with "passively" engaging in DCA-like behavior by haphazardly dumping spare money into index funds after min("significant" drop, time limit) instead of purely maximizing time in market.
There's now another game in town, exemplified by Apple's switch to ARM chips for its Macs. I'll keep an eye on the AVX2 vs. AVX-512 performance gap on Zen4+, but my working hypothesis is that my SIMD-handcoding time will be better spent on improving ARM support than upgrading AVX2 code to AVX-512 for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, just because a donation is received during the primary season doesn’t mean it can’t be spent during the general election period, when the candidate in question wins the primary.
1. They can band together to save the EA brand by demonstrating an unusually high commitment to accountability. The simplest way I see to do this is to contribute 2x what they received from FTX (as a group, it's impractical for them to do this on the individual level) to making the financial fraud victims whole.
2. They could "declare bankruptcy", switching to less ambitious but epistemically safer approaches to philanthropy. I wouldn't blame them for doing this, (1) is a big ask.
COWEN: Okay, but let’s say there’s a game: 51 percent, you double the Earth out somewhere else; 49 percent, it all disappears. Would you play that game? And would you keep on playing that, double or nothing?
BANKMAN-FRIED: With one caveat. Let me give the caveat first, just to be a party pooper, which is, I’m assuming these are noninteracting universes. Is that right? Because to the extent they’re in the same universe, then maybe duplicating doesn’t actually double the value because maybe they would have colonized the other one anyway, eventually.
COWEN: But holding all that constant, you’re actually getting two Earths, but you’re risking a 49 percent chance of it all disappearing.
BANKMAN-FRIED: Again, I feel compelled to say caveats here, like, “How do you really know that’s what’s happening?” Blah, blah, blah, whatever. But that aside, take the pure hypothetical.
COWEN: Then you keep on playing the game. So, what’s the chance we’re left with anything? Don’t I just St. Petersburg paradox you into nonexistence?
BANKMAN-FRIED: Well, not necessarily. Maybe you St. Petersburg paradox into an enormously valuable existence. That’s the other option.
https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/sam-bankman-frie...
(See the first paragraph of https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BZ6XaCwN4QGgH9CxF/the-kelly-... for the outline of an explanation of why his reasoning was not applicable to most real-life scenarios. This is pretty subtle; >95% of the explanations on the Internet I've seen over the past week as to why SBF is "obviously wrong" don't actually work.)
Maybe I'm speaking too soon, but he does seem ready to accept that he lost this flip. It would obviously be insane to trust with him anything big at this point, but I'm optimistic that he won't fight to the bitter end.
I used to respect them, and even during the past few days I thought this crisis was a major opportunity for them to reflect and find their way again.
So I posted a comment on their forum with (i) an observation that they could regain trust by doing their share (I suggested twice the money they received from FTX) to make financial fraud victims whole before resuming their regular program, and (ii) a link to https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BZ6XaCwN4QGgH9CxF/the-kelly-... , the first paragraph of which might have stopped SBF from making the big wrong turn in his reasoning (note that almost all other arguments on the Internet against SBF's reasoning don't actually work). Nothing but downvotes.
I recommend against any further association with these people in the strongest possible terms. (I'll retract this if it turns out that the downvoters were the exception and the EA community actually proceeds to demonstrate good citizenship in something like the manner I suggested, but I'm not holding my breath.)
EDIT: suspending judgment again after seeing https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33605431 .