chakalakasp

NYC is essentially leveled in any kind of attack that includes countervalue.

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/davidteter/OPEN-RISOP/main...

This is the guy: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dmteter

He's an engineer who's job was, in the past, to be one of the people who developed the U.S. nuclear warplans against Russia.

His open source attempt at using his understanding to build hypothetical target laydowns for Russian attacks against the U.S. is here:

https://github.com/davidteter/OPEN-RISOP

This is what a typical attack on the U.S. would likely look like. Attack 1 is an attack that attempts to hit the U.S. silos in addition to other U.S. military and civilian targets. It's what would perhaps be used in a first-strike scenario. Attack 2 assumes that the land based U.S. missiles have already launched, and only targets military and civilian targets, but doesn't worry about targeting U.S. land based missile silos.

Attack laydown 1: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/davidteter/OPEN-RISOP/main...

Attack laydown 2:

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/davidteter/OPEN-RISOP/main...

The casualties figure is immediate, and doesn't include things like the breakdown of society -- this is just the casualties estimated from the actual war itself.

Yes, the publications the U.S. made for the population back then were reassuring.

The people who actually plan the wars these days expect maybe 15 to 20 million people to still be alive in the U.S. a year and a half after a full general war.

How do you prepare for the complete breakdown of society and 200 million survivors competing for resources that will support maybe 15 million people in a blasted, utterly destroyed landscape with no infrastructure or production.

A U.S. nuclear warplanner from around a decade ago (I can link you to him if you're interested) recently stated that he'd suspect that a typical full exchange between the U.S. and Russia would kill 95% of the people living in both countries within 18 months of the attack. Main causes of death would be complete collapse of infrastructure; no supply chains, no food production, no fuel, no heat, no power, no water, no medicine or health care. Most major cities would be destroyed, many cities along rivers would be under fast-flowing as water dams would be targeted to cascade fail most hydrology management, anything downwind of spent fuel storage for nuclear plants (which, in the U.S., are stored above ground near the actual reactors) would be uninhabitable for months to decades, etc. It'd be a very messy 18 months, too, as those left alive immediately after that attack and fallout, which would probably be around 2/3rds of the population of each of the countries, competed for limited resources. And his estimates assumed that nuclear winter was not a real thing. It goes downhill from there if it is.

Help me out here - how does being 50 feet above sea level make a difference?

Main GitHub page: https://github.com/davidteter/OPEN-RISOP

A former U.S. nuclear warplanner (https://www.linkedin.com/in/dmteter) is developing an open source target database and target laydowns against U.S. targets, assuming a Russian attack in present day. He focuses on three scenarios, two excursion scenarios (a pure "counterforce" attack in which Russia only targets U.S. nuclear weapons, a pure "countervaule" attack in which Russia focuses entirely on creating maximum death and damage to infrastructure) and one main scenario that would generally be considered the most likely type of attack, which is a blend of counterforce and countervalue.

Some notes I've taken from his reddit and Twitter explanations: this attack is modeled against the U.S. only. He did not attempt to do targeting for the EU theatre as that gets into his previous job, which was very intimately familiar with a lot of classified stuff that he doesn't want to build into a map; however, he said that EU/APAC/maybe China theatre would be targeted, mostly with shorter range "tactical" weapons.

He did a ton of work, calculating VNTK (https://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/VNTK) for each target, and planned his attack just like he used to plan attacks against the Russian theatre, making sure to hit things like spent fuel storage for area denial, hitting the right dams to cascade fail hydrology management on major rivers (Baton Rouge would be under a couple hundred feet of water within a few weeks and would be "scoured clean"), etc. In the end, he estimates that 95 percent of the U.S. population would be dead within 18 months of the attack due to complete lack of infrastructure, food, water, medicine, medical treatment, logistics, heat, power, etc.

I mean, there is an entire field of study in cybersecurity. You're asking me why using an EOL OS that is 7 years out of patch compliance is worse than using Windows 10 and being in patch compliance. That's something you can easily Google and get 15 second answer from an authoritative source.

But like I said, you do you. You'll figure it out eventually, probably at great cost.

You won't stop obsoleting stuff until the pace of development settles down. We've gone from the telephone to VRChat in a century and a half. 20 years ago text messaging was just starting to catch on and the smartphone as we know them today was still 5 years away from existing.

If physical devices are going to start being used for the long haul it's either because hardware/software development has finally hit a wall or because the world has collapsed and smartphones are only good as a decorative hood ornament as you tear across the deserts of Mississippi on your Mad Max bloodwagon.

The Windows 7 issues are worse. Far worse. But you do you, man

I'm a photographer and I'll be honest, I clicked on these fully expecting to not like them (usually when people say "look at these photos, they look like terrible photos taken with a bad camera until you, like, get it, man" what they really mean is that the photographer knew the right pretentious people at the right time in history)...

... but I actually like them. I wish I could explain why; he's doing some clever stuff here. Some of it is kinda pervy and it feels like TMI, but he's at least being clever. There are a few photos that feel like you are voyeuristically peeking through time, the defects in the photos are like peeking through bushes to see something interesting. But mostly I can't explain why I like it. I just do.

LPT: sub things using a Privacy virtual debit card. If unsubbing is hard, email the company you want to unsubscribe and then shut the card off with a single click. They tend to unsub you quickly when you stop paying.

It's like my local newspaper's way of handling paid subscriptions. Read as many articles online as you want through the tiny little window we allow the actual content to exist in, sandwiched between animated clickbait ads, some which masquerade as other news stories, with the occasional popup.

Just FYI, there is some real weird stuff going on in the brains of quite a few people who died of COVID. COVID is far from a fully understood disease. https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210217/autopsies_may_expla...

Heh. This got me down memory lane and I started looking things up. Can you believe you can still play Tradewars 2002? https://www.tradewars.com/default.html

For the most part people are not capable of having internet connected IoT devices that don’t go to third party servers. You really think it’s a good idea to open up ports to shitty Chinese cameras inside your house and let them run as servers on the naked internet? Cameras that connect to third party servers need subscriptions to pay for the resources they consume.

Cameras that don’t need to be accessed over the internet are not the same market as internet connected cameras. For a thousand bucks or so you can get a few decent cameras and an NVR and have all the local camera viewing and recording you want. But most people don’t really need that.

Also, it’s good for checking up on your toddler. You can never be too safe, even if you leave him with a knife to defend himself with.

My dogs would make it their mission to knock the drone out of the sky and manually dissect it with their teeth to learn its secrets.

> Then again, iOS has the built-in ability to detect dogs barking and react to that. Perhaps in the not-too-distant future, your Homepod can detect the dog barking and hit you with a text message.

Oh cool. I always wanted to get texts all day alerting me to people walking dogs across the street and that the squirrel that lives in the tree in the front yard has descended again.

If you like WhatsApp but don’t like Facebook having your meta-data, and don’t like the fact that your Google Drive back-ups are not E2E encrypted, then use Signal. WhatsApp’s encryption algorithm is based on the protocol that Signal invented, so you get the same and E2E security — but without the potential for Facebook snooping on you.

I think it’s because most current futuretech solutions are pipe dreams at best. The scale of the problem is such that we need to learn how to essentially execute a planned terraform of a planet in the near term (as opposed to the current unintentional terraforming), using tech we don’t yet even have scribbled on a the back of a napkin to create massive effects on the planet using processes we don’t fully understand. It’s the equivalent of saying “to fix this we need to invent warp drive and genetically bioengineer human bodies to withstand prolonged periods of 100G acceleration and figure out how to extend human lifetimes to thousands of years, and we need to get it done in the next century.” It’s a fun fairy tale.

The alternative, lifestyle changes, is better understood and the effects of which are easily predicted, but is only effective if done in a unified manner at a scale that current human nature will not allow. We can’t even figure out how to cure hunger and poverty in a world of plenty, good luck getting everyone to make the dramatic changes to even get us to stabilize at mostly broken planet.

The real answer is that beyond a deus ex machina there is no answer and that the inevitable easily and indisputably modeled result of the current situation is dramatic near-term biosphere changes, ecosystems collapse and likely the end of most advanced human civilization within a couple centuries, conservatively.

It must be a weird time to be a climate scientists, with the best computer models that have ever existed essentially returning a result that ends the world within a half dozen generations.

Just FYI, Actalis will mint you a free S/MIME cert.

https://www.actalis.it/products/certificates-for-secure-elec...

>peer-to-peter

Ooh er, missus

If you need to encrypt files (symmetrically) then use a tool that does this well like Veracrypt.

Most data right now does not suggest its the insecticides (outside of agricultural areas). It’s because the entire planet is warming up and this is changing the entire biome faster than speices and interconnected biological systems can adapt.

For those who haven’t done so, the Pulitzer winner “The Sixth Extinction” is well worth reading. We are on the cusp of popular culture realizing the world as we know it is coming to a close and we are probably half a century beyond the point where our ingenuity or actions can do anything about it.

“Fortunately, the house isn’t in fire, there’s just a 50 mile wide firestorm sweeping this way that will be here in a few minutes”

Right, but having your species single-handedly cause a mass extinction event on a scale not seen in 250 million years and having it happen in the span of a couple centuries (which is like a millisecond in geological time) seems like a pretty big deal to me. Like the biggest of big deals that we’ve ever lived through. This is a “there is a three mile wide asteroid inbound that will hit the earth in 80 years” kind of big deal.

Don’t make phone calls on the teleco layer. Make them on the application later, such as FaceTime voice or Signal. If phone companies won’t secure their networks, lay a secure layer on top of the phone company network.