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cfton OpenAI says it has evidence DeepSeek used its model to train competitor

I changed the typo, thanks. Chash dividends. This analysis does not negate common sense: when a company does not pay cash dividends, owning its stock is purely speculative, like owning Solana. When it does, you get cash dividends funded by the company's tangible revenue, proportional to your number of shares.

cfton OpenAI says it has evidence DeepSeek used its model to train competitor

Since the time when companies en masse stopped paying cash dividends on owned shares, the value has become highly speculative. In the absence of dividend payments, the stock pricing mechanism is not essentially different from Solana or Ethereum "price" discovery.

cfton Promising results from DeepSeek R1 for code

@jetbalsa - HN does not allow me to reply, the reply depth is limited, so replying here.

I was simply clicking the paperclip and attaching the .py files to the prompt.

cfton Promising results from DeepSeek R1 for code

DeepSeek R1

cfton Promising results from DeepSeek R1 for code

I am writing some python code to do Order Flow Imbalance analysis from L2 orderbook updates. The language is unimportant: the logic is pretty subtle, so that the main difficulties are not in the language details, but in the logic and handling edge cases.

Initially I was using Claude 3.5 sonnet, then writing unit tests and manually correcting sonnet's code. Sonnet's code mostly worked, except for failing certain complicated combined book updates.

Then I fed the code and the tests into DeepSeek. It turned out pretty bad. At first it tried to make the results of the tests conform to the erroneous results of the code. When I pointed that out, it fixed the immediate logical problem in the code, introducing two more nested problems that we're not there before by corrupting the existing code. After prompted that, it fixed the first error it introduced but left the second one. Then I fixed it myself, uploaded the fix and asked it to summarize what it has done. It started basically gaslighting me, saying that the initial code had the problem that it introduced.

In summary, I lost two days, reverted everything and went back to Sonnet.

cfton No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard? Here's why

Public, yes. Interpretable- recent transactions- no. Have you done chain analytics on pay-to-Taproot key-path transactions?

cfton No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard (2024)

Since we are hypothesizing, here is another hypothesis. Crypto, being non-government controlled, maybe be better than the hypothetic alternative: a government ledger, where the central planners decide which economic activity is "good" and which leads to de-banking, and where decisions are made by government-controlled AI. Then this p2p economic liberty is worth the investment.

cfton DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via RL

Here Deepseek r1 fixes a python bug. Its fix is the same as the original code. I have not seen that level of stupidity from o1 or sonnet 3.5

https://x.com/alecm3/status/1883147247485170072?t=55xwg97roj...

cfton Garmin's –$40B Pivot

There's a difference: I wear my watch, and I expect it to always work, and be accessible even at night

cfton TikTok goes dark in the US

This is not just special interests. It's also a Blueprint for future internet censorship in the US, so the government likes it too

cfton Is the world becoming uninsurable?

Those problems are relatively recent and are getting worse

cfton Is the world becoming uninsurable?

The Third world has never been insurable. Insurance, supermarkets with self-checkout, home order delivery, all these things are only possible in high trust developed societies.

cfton The social media censorship era is over (for now)

HN' turn

cfton 3blue1brown YouTube Bitcoin video taken down as copyright violation

Yes, YouTube was sold to Google essentially at gunpoint. But since then the balance of power shifted from Hollywood to Google. So they they would benefit from relaxing this policy.

cfton Bitcoin price hits $100K for first time in history

> https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/775143.Golden_Fetters

just wanted to note that they are using a 20-year history window as an argument, while the gold standard existed for about 3500 years before that, across very different cultures.

cfton Bitcoin price hits $100K for first time in history

There might be smarter elected officials in the future that facing two choices:

USD losing the world's reserve currency status and:

1. Yuan becomes the reserve currency

2. BTC becomes the reserve currency

they would understand that choice 2 is preferrable for the West

cfton Bitcoin price hits $100K for first time in history

>Also, when I ran the numbers some time ago, I figured a realistic max value for 1 BTC would be 500k-1M

In what units? What makes you think there won't be Argentina-style inflation of the USD?

cfton Supreme Court wants US input on whether ISPs should be liable for users' piracy

Why don't the copyright holders go directly after the violators of the copyright? Why do they need the extra judicial policing by Cox?

Answer: because they want to shift the enforcement costs to Cox. If a copyright violation cost them $150,000 as they allege, it would make economic sense for them to go after individual violators. But it doesn't.

cfton Show HN: Physically accurate black hole simulation using your iPhone camera

Because, for an external observer, time infinitely slows down near the event horizon. In other words, during one hour by the clock of the far-away observer, the time that passes by the clock of the falling observer approaches zero as he approaches the event horizon. So, when you look from the outside, objects get 'frozen' as they approach the event horizon. For the falling observer, nothing special happens at the event horizon, and he just falls through.

If you happen to approach the event horizon closely and come back again far away to where you started, you will see that a lot of time passed at your origin, while by your clock, the trip might have been short.

cfton ChatGPT macOS app can now work with native coding apps

So far ChatGPT is read-only. Do Accessibility features give write access?

cfton FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

What about Bloomberg?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/polymarke...

cfton FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1856841521334816928

they are investigating Polymarket itself

cfton Reconstruction of Lomonosov's Discovery of Venus's Atmosphere (2012) [pdf]

I upvoted both, yours and the one you replied to

cfton Scott Fitzgerald's Last Act

I am curious if there was a single non-commercial writer anywhere in the world that ended up happy. Hemingway drunk himself to dealth, Tolstoy ended up wandering barefoot, James Foster Wallace committed suicide, JD Salinger went into exile, Jack Kerouac died at 47 from liver complications of alcoholism

cfton Long wave radio fans mourn fading frequencies (2023)

I think LW transmission antennas are too large to be built bu amateurs

cfton Everything I built with Claude Artifacts this week

o1-mini is even higher in coding benchmarks than o1-preview. That has been my experience also.

cfton Believe it or not, this lush landscape is Antarctica

The area that was green in the recent years is 100% green, that is indeed much more than 0.0008%.

Or does your answer imply that there are other green areas of Antarctica, outside of the Antarctic Peninsula, but they only focused the search on the Peninsula?

cfton Believe it or not, this lush landscape is Antarctica

The green area of Antarctica according to the graph in this link is 12 km². The area of Antarctica is 14,200,000 km², i.e. 0.0008% is green. Seems like a noise data point.

cfton Learning to Reason with LLMs

it's in my MacOS app, but not in the browser fir the same account

cfton Why is a Guillotine blade diagonal?

Mainly because the slicing motion separates fibers in the fresh, it's more effective than blunt force. Same with a knife.

It's interesting, however, that this post is much higher on the front page than the post about Durov's arrest by the French ever was, despite having 1/10th the number of comments during a similar time period.