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cf141q5325

1,546 karma · joined August 24, 2018

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cf141q5325··on What is money, anyway?
Yes, we dont disagree.

In practice, you have to settle debts in the government dictated currency. Here Gresham takes hold, the valuable currency will disappear from circulation. Think silver dollars in the US with a higher material value then the nominal value. You still have to accept payment in any dollar so you wont spend silver dollars doing so. As long as you have the choice to sell it for material value. Think copper content in pennies for where this doesnt apply because its illegal to melt down.

Its all just a description of how the market (meaning people ) behaves once the government applies pressure in certain directions.

cf141q5325··on What is money, anyway?
You dont disagree with the author. The key phrase is "given the choice" from the consumer perspective. That people who sell will demand the stronger if they have the option isnt surprising.
cf141q5325··on What is money, anyway?
Its modern monetary theory now. The glorious idea that you can print as long as there is no store of value to flee into
cf141q5325··on What is money, anyway?
> So there's really no difference between this and a fiat currency.

One can be printed into infinity, one cant. Gold is manifested mistrust in governments ability to manage a currency.

You just argue that "gold backed" is a scam that falls apart the moment people actually try that.

cf141q5325··on Ask HN: Security deposit for appointment reservation as a service?
Thank you for the input, especially the cancellation of CC payments (" Stop payments "). Apparently it is now 15-35$ depending on the institute.

Unfortunately from what i could tell the recurring customers arent really the problem, so they likely wont need a downpayment until they missbehave. Its more a question of how to deal with first timers who never become customers but eat up time slots. The down payments also wont make up losses in revenue (they would have to be too high) but would be more aimed at reducing the number of no-shows. So it would have to be aimed at those most incentivized to back out.

edit: The more i think about it, the more i am just describing an over complicated upfront down payment for first time customers. Thanks for pushing me to that conclusion.

cf141q5325··on Ask HN: Security deposit for appointment reservation as a service?
As far as i can tell there are 3 major problems

1) customers being able to cancel their deposit payment through their payment processor

2) legal nightmare of who owns what when. As far as i recall its highly problematic to hold funds for somebody

3) legality and taxes

I think it is something that would be best solved with crypto (no this time for real) and having the default be that the depositor gets his money back. But that leaves the entry hurdle (and cost in and out of what ever coin) as well as fluctuations in price.

cf141q5325··on EU negotiators agree new rules to rein in tech giants
Damn, DH 1536 (and AES128), thanks for the heads up
cf141q5325··on EU negotiators agree new rules to rein in tech giants
No idea why this was downvoted. OTR is the correct answer here.
cf141q5325··on EU negotiators agree new rules to rein in tech giants
Also with offTheRecord Messaging for encryption.

I am really loving this news, i was able to convince some of my old icq contacts back then to switch to jabber this way. And why wouldnt they if its all the same interface?

cf141q5325··on Covid and the Heart: It Spares No One – Johns Hopkins
Sorry I cant follow. I was arguing for quite the opposite, just assuming something will help wont make it so. We know there is heart damage as well as long covid even in low and asymptomatic cases. Sure you can bet that the vaccines will help there as well, but how confident are you in that? Because as far as i know nobody promised anything of the sorts. It is a leaky vaccine, you still get sick, you just get lung antibodies so you dont end up on intensive care.

Are you really willing to risk both on the grounds that it might or might not help? I would say if you dont know, you assume that its not a magic shield and adapt your behavior accordingly. Which means so you dont catch it.

cf141q5325··on Qubes OS: A reasonably secure operating system
Happily using it for a few years now, though on a beefy desktop machine. Stability issues are limited to a firefox issue on the fedora Domains and some hickups with dual monitors on startup.
cf141q5325··on Covid and the Heart: It Spares No One – Johns Hopkins
Even if it was that way, precautionary principle would still apply. Saying "nobody could have known" in a few years doesnt make your heart damage go away.
cf141q5325··on Covid and the Heart: It Spares No One – Johns Hopkins
Relative to somebody not vaccinated with the same NPI. Just look at any of those studies, they are almost exclusively done on hospital staff which have among the strictest NPI. Once you drop those the difference doesnt mean much. Especially with the new mutations.

So again, herd immunity is not an option for the current vaccines and variants of covid. This is not a controversial statement.

cf141q5325··on Covid and the Heart: It Spares No One – Johns Hopkins
You cant just apply some general knowledge about vaccinations to COVID with some selfrighteousness sprinkled on top. Unfortunately its not that easy

>If everyone (not immunosuppressed etc) got vaccinated, fewer people would die.

People at risk of a severe case of covid fare better when vaccinated. Thats it. You vaccinating yourself doesnt save an obese elderly person from covid. Its not magic.

To be more precise, there wont be any herd immunity and that has been clear for well over a year. Its a leaky vaccine which means you still get it and spread it just as much as unvaccinated do. You are a bit less likely to catch it, but not to any meaningful degree. Especially not with the R0 of COVID mutations. Your behavior and non pharmaceutical interventions are still the driving factor.

Differently put, you are vaccinating yourself to protect yourself, not others. You have some implicit protection of others through not overloading the hospital system, but not to the degree some people think. Risk groups are a very real thing and if you are not in one, there are a lot of daily risks you take which are quite a lot riskier. Unless we categorize them as selfish too, i am calling hypocritical double standard.

I would also recommend some self reflection into whether you are using the fact that you are vaccinated as an letter of indulgence like far too many do. You do still spread it and covid isnt just solved once everyone is vaccinated. Not being honest with that could be described as willfully ignorant. Having identified a few especially stupid caricatures doesnt mean you are done thinking.

cf141q5325··on Covid and the Heart: It Spares No One – Johns Hopkins
There is no indication that vaccination changes that. You still get it and and if i had to guess, lung antibodies will likely help as much for heart problems as they do for upper respiratory symptoms.
cf141q5325··on Covid and the Heart: It Spares No One – Johns Hopkins
Thats not a realistic option for COVID and the vaccines we have for it. Its a leaky vaccine (meaning you still get sick and spread it just as much) and the reduced likelihood for infection is nowhere near enough to get R0 under 1. Especially with every mutation (delta, omicron ...) having higher R0
cf141q5325··on Covid and the Heart: It Spares No One – Johns Hopkins
Does that cover risky behavior that could lead to hospitalization as well? Lets be honest, we did collect quite a bit of data over the pandemic years and your risk of hospitalization from COVID is not some random chance but determined by your state of health.

Differently put, i am having a hard time calling healthy teenagers selfish if nobody thinks about calling anyone with a still obese BMI after 2 years the same. Because to be perfectly blunt, looking at the numbers the later is a lot bigger of a problem then the former.

edit: In case anyone is skeptical about the giant impact obesity has, here the CDC numbers from last year https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2021/pdf/21_0123.pdf Figure 1 has leading underlying medical conditions. Hypertension, Lipid metabolism (cholesterol), obesity itself, diabetes and coronary atherosclerosis being the first 5. Table 1 has the numbers of hospitalized. ~95% had two or more on the list.

cf141q5325··on A microcontroller board with a camera, mic, and Coral Edge TPU
Have to say the processor used has me a lot more interested then the board

>NXP i.MX RT1176 (Cortex-M7 and Cortex-M4)

An cortex M that has dual GBit Ethernet and is usable with at least FreeRTOS and Zephyr.

cf141q5325··on Ivermectin Didn’t Reduce Covid-19 Hospitalizations in Largest Trial to Date
It would have been no problem to allow access to ivermectin through offlabel use seeing as there was no other treatment. The fact that this didnt happen was caused by politics. And we do live in a democracy with public opinion having a great sway.

The burning bridges thing is silly as long as you look at individual problems. They sum up quickly. And your political camp just denied me lifesaving horse dewormer, didnt you? Some people might not take that lightly. I dont have to join Q anon or flat earthers to vote tactically to stop you. Especially if you think you get to act the way you do because i have no alternative.

I am pretty sure this is a very real mechanism at play explaining a lot of what we see around us. We really cant afford more confrontation over trivial stuff.

cf141q5325··on Crypto is an unproductive bubble
I am sorry if it read as sneering, i tend to loose track of people identifying with the positions, i hoped to make the error in perspective better visible.

You argument is that my assertion cant be true because it would mean Anarchism to be the only form of government.

I think this is intellectually dishonest, you dont end up at it as a logical conclusion, after all, there are some practical problems with Anarchism that dont just disappear. If i had to guess why you might think this, it might be caused by you wanting to look favorably on your worldview? (no offense intended, its an honest guess that might help to self reflect)

The description of reality is however absolutely unrelated to the implications drawn from it. Just because you think there is a logical conclusion doesnt change the basic facts and i think we should communicate them plainly. Because doing so might show errors in what conclusions you drew from it.

My initial statement is true unrelated to its implications. I tried getting away from the individual vocabulary to the meaning behind it so we dont get hung up on the wording.

What you describe here (yes i heard of societal contracts before) is the justification of why this is a good and necessary flubbitz. I point out that this is a bit dishonest, because on paper the Flubbitz you describe is a lot closer to slavery then to a consensual contract. You just think its necessary because of (story + implications) which makes your use a common but dishonest frame. You could make a good argument, that "Good and necessary type of slavery" is an equally fitting description, after all, you agree that it entails not giving individuals a choice and forcing them to comply by force. We by no means have to agree on it being slavery but think about the structure we exist in. So:

Statement 1, calling that a consensual contract is a frame aimed at making it more palpable because of (implications + intentions). It is still forcing individuals to do something they never had the chance to disagree with

Your answer to this is repeating the intentions and implications you see. You dont disagree over the basics, just argue that it is necessary.

All of the above might be seen as just an annoying attempt of smearing a righteous worldview. However, my argument is that this dishonesty has substantial implications. Namely

Statement 2, the wording of the contract being quite broad and exploitable. Not just are you stuck in a good Flubbitz, there exist a power structure that has the ability to redefine its terms how it sees fit.

Saying that this would would mean we had to start anarchism is no different then saying due to problems with capitalism we now have to start communism. The problems still exist and have to be dealt with them. Sugarcoating to feel better about a bad situation is counterproductive. Politics is an ugly business, maybe we should think about where the terms of the Flubbitz get interpreted to broadly, no? After all, its not as cuddly and innocent as it sounds.

cf141q5325··on Crypto is an unproductive bubble
One is force (as in there being a threat if you dont comply) to hold a devaluing currency (devaluing due to the loss of trust that made the threat necessary) the other is having to use something as an transfer medium because you need any.

It might boil down to the same in the big picture (people having to use it) but people react differently in the two described situations. One is somebody trying to tax you through inflation, one is using something that is tiresome to use. You will be a lot more motivated to find an alternative for the former then the later.

To the other point, bitcoin being exchanged into other currencies is caused in the expectation of what will in the future be exchangeable for goods and services. IE Adaption. At the end of the day its the transfer of credit. Me paying the supermarket in fiat doesnt speak for an intrinsic value in the pieces of paper, but the expectation, that i worked for those tokens in the past or promised to work for them in the future. Thats all currencies are, what we use is determined by force (government pressure), ease of use and adaption.

I hope we are not talking in circles here, i am trying to get across that its important to look at what actually drives peoples behavior.

1) Inflation is inflation expectation, which just means a loss of trust. You expect to get less for it in the future and if everyone does, it happens.

1a) No individual wants to hold their savings in devaluing stores of value. There is a fear of value loss that drives behavior and Greshams law sets in

1b) Nobody wants to produce for a loss. If you pay more then you can expect to get, you might not do it if you are not allowed to raise prices.

1c) Forcing people to accept it (ie price dictates) doesnt really work, see 1b.

2) You need some transfer medium. Our economy works by me having worked or having promised to work for what i buy in the supermarket. Just because one currencies is buged or exploited doesnt mean i no longer have to buy stuff. Adaption is then driven by market chains. I pay the supermarket in those tokens they pay their suppliers who they in turn can exchange for what they need. Those tokens are generally the ones the government wants for taxes and forces people to use, but if governments fuck up to badly, people still have to eat. Same story over and over again.

Currencies are a con game. They are the best thing we have to keep tab of who gets what in what we produce daily. If it gets exploited (me promising to work in the future every day in the supermarket while never doing it), people tend to realize that sooner or later. If you cant cut off the individual doing it the currency gets devalued over time which triggers psychological effects. Modern monetary theory is the assumption that while you cant force people to use it, it wont devalue if people have no other store of value to flee into. I think thats very optimistic if you look at stock prices (another store of value with even less practicality for daily exchange).

At the end of the day, all crypto needs to be is something any market chain can fall back on once the current one is broken so baldy that the chain halts. (Producers stopping to produce)

Governments trying to ban exchanges falls into the same category as dictating that a farmer has to accept fiat for his stuff. If its not profitable, the farmer will stop and i will still have to eat. Adoption of literally any other functioning store of value then gets forced Which leads us to the second theory behind modern monetary theory. That we are technologically far enough to prevent off book transactions. Which would however still trigger the dont produce for a loss part.

In short, printing money wont work forever, as it only works as long as people believe it to. That sets a mechanism in motion that requires another means of exchange. Who ever has something working will get the job to keep the economy running. All crypto have to be is less bad then trust people have in the governments ability to manage the currency.

cf141q5325··on Crypto is an unproductive bubble
You just gave me your story again, you being able to repeat it has nothing to do with QED.

For the individual there is no contract and no consensus, you just said so. For the individual its do as you are told at the threat of violence.

Differently put, you just repeated a story which with you justify forcing other individuals around.

You not liking this framing doesnt change that.

edit: I am not repeating myself for fun here. Once we agree that your "consensus based societal contract" is code for "forcing other individuals to do as you tell them at the threat of force", we can look at what anarchists actually say and how much better of a story they have.

How much better is "being born into an involuntary "contract" that dictates your actions at the threat of violence" described as slavery vs "consensual contract"?

All completely unrelated to the implications. Facts generally dont care for implications. You not wanting to hear them dont make them go away.

cf141q5325··on Ivermectin Didn’t Reduce Covid-19 Hospitalizations in Largest Trial to Date
The force is you preventing me from getting Ivermectin. If you take a step back, the rest is your description of your perspective ie why it annoys you. From my perspective, there is no noteworthy negative effect of me getting it and i can clearly describe the negative effect in you preventing me from getting a functioning placebo. From my perspective, an action you take (limiting the availability of a non harmful placebo) has a negative effect on me. This motivates me to a reaction. And i dont think you could expect otherwise, its what any rational actor would do.

So again, neither of us needs to be convinced that i am not an utter moron,

that might not be possible, but do you really want us to go on opposite sites of political camps over this? Not only am i not a nazi but i am a friendly idiot that is actually looking for cooperation, if you cant get along with me, who do you get along with? Because it seems to me like you already burned a lot of bridges and my cooperation can be bought at the very cheap price of not interfering in me getting my horse dewormer despite your utter contempt for my idiocy. Yes i do understand its a placebo, it isnt a substitute for a vaccine and i am of legally sound mind. So where do i sign?

So do you have a thought process and evaluation of the cost benefit analysis of starting a conflict over this? Because it seems not. You believing you are right doesnt make the consequences of those actions (the reactions) go away. The world is full of idiots who react to your actions unrelated to whether you are right. Which you can think about. And should unless you want to end up over time having started a conflict with all the idiots (ie everyone given the exposure to enough topics) despite being right.

cf141q5325··on Crypto is an unproductive bubble
But not over time. Fiat has been constantly going down since its inception
cf141q5325··on Crypto is an unproductive bubble
I can buy drugs and apparently some food deliveries. I get your point but thats just a question of adaptation.

To the other point, i described the mechanism of adaptation. If the current mechanism of transfer stops working people historically fall back to anything else that works. They have to use something, trade must go on so they choose the next best thing till something better emerges. The involuntary pressure on the value then starts over when that emerging currency is blocked by force again.

Its all just the description of peoples behavior. People dont like loosing money and will act to prevent it.

cf141q5325··on Crypto is an unproductive bubble
IF you enter. There is the choice that is lacking is this case. Without the choice there is no contract, just the force.

And if it were consensus you wouldnt have to force it.

Both "contract" and "consensus" are nice frames for forcing people to do what you think is right. At least be honest about it.

cf141q5325··on Ivermectin Didn’t Reduce Covid-19 Hospitalizations in Largest Trial to Date
That Ivermectin is somewhat a scares resource is nonsense, there were rather large countries that gave it out like candy with no problems. I can not overstate how cheap and easy to produce it is, quite different from masks. I would also be very doubtful many people would use an obvious placebo.

Its also far from a nonsensical argument. This isnt about vocalizing your opinion and communicating facts but forcing the behavior of other people without an actual harm at stake. Those are two very different things. You also shouldnt force flat earthers on ship trips around the world just because they annoy you. As they will interpret that as a hostile action on your part and react in kind.

Lets make the argument practical. Even with zero effect, I believe given enough motivation i could convince myself that Ivermectin has some sort of effect. Which would very likely induce a placebo effect. For something where there is zero home treatment options which makes it the best option available to me since i wont be able to convince myself of the benefits of homeopathics. All with neglect-able personal risk and societal impact. Differently put, a lot of what i do has higher risk and higher negative societal impact for zero upside as well.

A placebo you however want to prevent me from acquiring because it annoys you. I do believe we can get most problems solved through a reasonable discussion, impact analysis, cost benefit analysis and last but not least cooperation. But you seem to think your feelings allow you to force me to do stuff that leaves me at a disadvantage (lack of a placebo) for no reason what so ever.

This leaves me with the realization, that you are not interested in cooperation. Game theory tells me to stop cooperating immediately till you learned your lesson. Why shouldnt i? Because you get angry and start fantasying about more force?

Unrelated how right you feel on this, i do not believe that we can get anywhere as a species if everyone acted as you do. At the end of the day, forcing people has a cost and creates a reaction. Or differently put, you cant fix stupidity by force. Especially since you might overestimate your ability to identify stupid.

cf141q5325··on Crypto is an unproductive bubble
You start with an actual store of value that gets degraded over time through the people holding power over it (think mints). The coin starts with a high silver or gold content and with ever economic woe the ruler finds themselves in a new coin gets minted with some copper and tin added. Or just prints more.

Power comes into play as to dictating what currency people are forced to use. That the old coins had to be handed back in or dictating the adaptation. They implode when there is nothing backing it what so ever. At its core its Greshams law at work, with currencies or with other store of values.

If i am not mistaken Graeber has quite a few examples of this mechanism.

cf141q5325··on Crypto is an unproductive bubble
Transfer mechanism are all that any currencies are. All currencies are dependent on being spendable. Thats just a question of adaptation, as in somebody else accepting it in the expectation that it will hold value and be spendable in the future.

Involuntary adaptation historically leads to drastic inflation with the trust in the purchasing power degrading. If you are forced to accept it despite low trust, you are motivated to exchange it for any other store of value. And are reluctant to produce stuff for which you have to accept a degrading currency. Both of which harms the actual economy.

cf141q5325··on Ivermectin Didn’t Reduce Covid-19 Hospitalizations in Largest Trial to Date
The supply issues in the UK were nonsense. It was available in the market. Producing more would also not have been a problem.

You also skipped over the the part of your opinion being not reason enough to start societal conflict. I do sympathies with your views, however any such behavior comes with a cost. And looking around we cant really afford more conflict over trivial things. Your feelings might not be important enough to add to the problem with no clear harm at stake.

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