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bparsons

1,299 karma · joined January 5, 2013

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bparsons··on Death rates rose in hospital ERs after private equity firms took over
Sure, deaths increased by 13%, but think of all the shareholder value that was created.
bparsons··on Cache of devices capable of crashing cell network is found in NYC
The photos in the NY Post article make it look like they raided cell phone shops in normal retail locations. It looked more like an engagement/click fraud operation.
bparsons··on Grief gets an expiration date, just like us
There is a practical utility in medicalizing otherwise normal behaviors. Particularly in the US, you need a medical diagnosis in order to take time off work, receive disability benefits or access mental health supports through insurance.
bparsons··on UK Electricity Generation Map
The minimalist Alberta Electricity System Operator dashboard is far superior:

http://ets.aeso.ca/ets_web/ip/Market/Reports/CSDReportServle...

bparsons··on Toronto’s network of pedestrian tunnels
Yes. PATH isn't particularly well marked or easy to navigate. It just feels like you are walking through a series of interconnected malls and hotel basements.
bparsons··on Chinese astronauts make rocket fuel and oxygen in space
We do. It is called biodiesel. You can make it from any organic matter.
bparsons··on Can a Country Be Too Rich? Norway Is Finding Out
Great example of a golden rule of media commentary; all economic news is bad news.

Low unemployment? That's a labour shortage.

High GDP growth? The economy is overheating.

High rates of foreign investment? We are losing control of our economy.

Country experiencing historic levels of prosperity? Wealth is making everyone lazy, fat and unproductive.

bparsons··on Puerto Rico's Solar Microgrids Beat Blackout
The glamping approach is probably your best bet if you want to avoid paperwork. The equipment has gotten very good and quite cheap in the last few years.
bparsons··on Why Does the U.S. Always Run a Trade Deficit?
Imagine the contrary. You send out enormous amounts of goods and services, and in exchange, you get less from the rest of the world. You get to pay more for everything, but certain industries get to export more volumes of goods.

Is this better?

bparsons··on The A.I. Radiologist Will Not Be with You Soon
There is a perpetual shortage of these types of technicians, so it is unlikely that demand for those jobs will drop.
bparsons··on America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back
I think they conflated electricity production growth with total output.

Output in the US has been flat for some time, while China has been on a steady rate of climb for several decades.

bparsons··on When the Dotcom Bubble Burst
This was also the era of Sisqo's one-hit-wonder "the Thong Song", confusing things even further.
bparsons··on Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown
They don't have to. Sales are falling off a cliff in all those places.
bparsons··on Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown
This is all looking like a strategy to intentionally depress asset valuations so that they can be acquired at fire sale prices.
bparsons··on Anthropic raises $3.5B at $61.5B valuation
Since web 1.0 is our best analogue, I am thinking of it like this:

Late 1990s internet infrastructure buildout means that most of the captured value was at the hardware level (HP Computers, Dell, Intel, Cisco etc.).

2020s AI infrastructure buildout appears to be the same. NVIDA is capturing a lot of value, and experiencing explosive growth.

Late 1990s/early 2000s was a time of tremendous development for web software , but no one really had a business model. These LLMs are like the web browsers of that era -- they are an interface to access other peoples IP, but no one really knows what the financial model looks like.

It wasn't until the mid 2000s/early 2010s that the business models came into sharp focus for web services.

Like web browsers, the LLMs might be a vital tool for enabling the capture of value for businesses, but it might not be the actual thing that they end up monetizing.

bparsons··on Superintelligence Strategy
Is this an appeal for more taxpayer money?
bparsons··on GPT-4.5
Are they saying that 4.5 has a 35% hallucination rate? That chart is a bit confusing.
bparsons··on Pollution from Big Tech's data centre boom costs US public health $5.4bn
Increased levels of NO2, SO2 and PM2.5 are going to have a direct impact on the health of people living close to these facilities. The unlicensed gas turbines in Memphis are probably the worst offender.
bparsons··on Grok3 Launch [video]
Also, profitability won't materialize in an environment with so many competitors offering comparable products. Perfect competition destroys profit. The good becomes a commodity, and the price people will pay simply becomes the marginal cost of production (or in this case, less, while the dumb money is still chasing the hype).
bparsons··on Grok3 Launch [video]
It is entirely possible that LLMs end up serving some useful purpose, but don't end up being great businesses.

I can think of a million different software services that have some value to users, but don't have some multi-trillion dollar revenue stream flowing from them.

There is an idea that these LLM companies are going to be able to insert their agents into the labour market and capture some percentage of the savings that firms realize from laying off their human workforce. Given the competitive environment, it is far more likely that these LLMs become an undifferentiated commodity good, and their value to the economy gets captured elsewhere. Currently the only value being captured is at the infrastructure level, and that is all predicated on a series of assumptions around software business models that have not materialized yet.

bparsons··on Is the world becoming uninsurable?
Wildfire structure losses can be mitigated with cutting firebreaks, building material selection and removing flammable trees and plants from properties. A lot of communities in western Canada have learned this the hard way.
bparsons··on Device uses wind to create ammonia out of air
There are a million ways to turn large amounts of energy into smaller amounts of energy.
bparsons··on TikTok preparing for U.S. shut-off on Sunday
I think 90% of the negative social impacts would go away if they just did reverse chronological, opt-in news feed.

The black box algorithms are the problem.

bparsons··on MIT study explains why laws are written in an incomprehensible style
Canadian laws are written in fairly plain language. This is partly for accessibility purposes, and partly because they must be duplicated in both French and English and mean exactly the same thing.

Where laws and regulations get complicated is when they are referring to other documents. The Canadian Parliament has done a wonderful job creating a user interface for the different iterations of bills, and linking them to video and text of the debates and votes. https://www.parl.ca/legisinfo/en/bills

bparsons··on Sora is here
I dont think you are overthinking it.

Facebook seems full of older people interacting with AI generated visual content who don't seem to understand that it is fake.

Our society already had a problem with people (not) participating in consensus reality. This is going to pour gasoline on the fire.

bparsons··on California's most neglected group of students: the gifted ones
The argument against these programs is that they directed scarce resources toward the students who least need it. The mandate of public schools is to get as many people to a baseline of education.

There are many jurisdictions that can afford to do both, but most are not in that position.

There is far more wasted potential in the case of the hundreds of thousands of kids who fall through the cracks because of a crummy education system. Many states already create an uneven playing field by funding each school system based on the quantum of local taxes collected in their particular communities. Poor kids shouldn't have to further compete for resources within their own, poorly funded institution.

bparsons··on Hey, wait – is employee performance Gaussian distributed?
Unless you are measuring the output of people on simple assembly lines, it is very difficult to define "performance".

In a properly functioning team, people perform different, discrete roles which are probably not entirely understood by other team members or management.

bparsons··on Two galaxies aligned in a way where their gravity acts as a compound lens
If the lens curved light back toward us, could we see earth several million years ago?
bparsons··on Why the Guardian is no longer posting on X
Most sane people left the platform several years ago.
bparsons··on Show HN: Stretch My Time Off – An Algorithm to Optimize Your Vacation Days
This is a cool idea. A couple suggestions:

- A lot of companies shut down for the period between Christmas and New Years. That should be a check box.

- There should be user preference for vacation during warm or cold weather seasons.

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