641 karma · joined June 24, 2013
The only thing that I feel I miss out on in using old.reddit.com is the predictions. The /r/muaythai has a predictions tournament that's pretty fun but there's no way to get notifications that there are new predictions to be made with the old interface (as far as I know).
So far, we have task-driven AI/ML. It solves a problem you tell it to solve. Then you, as the engineer, need to make sure it solves the problem correctly enough for you. So it really still seems like it would be a human failing if something went wrong.
So I'm wondering why there is so much concern that AI is going to destroy humanity. Is the theoretical AI that's going to do this even going to have the actuators to do so?
Philosophically, I don't have an issue with the debate, but the "AI will destroy the world" side doesn't seem to have any tangible evidence. It seems to me that people seem to take it as a given that it's possible AI could eliminate all of humanity and they do not support that argument in the least. From my perspective, it appears to be fearmongering because people watched and believed Terminator. It appears uniquely out-of-touch.
How Candidates Can Signal Sincerity in an Era of Cynicism
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[[Download data and study materials from OSF]](https://osf.io/rj3aw/)
Principal investigators:
Scott Clifford
University of Houston
*Email:* scliffor\@central.uh.edu
*Homepage:* <https://scottaclifford.com/>
Elizabeth Simas
University of Houston
*Email:* ensimas\@uh.edu
*Homepage:* <https://www.elizabethsimas.com/>
\
*Sample size:* 769
*Field period:* 01/03/2020-06/26/2020
Abstract
Partisan polarization has reached historical highs, while politicians' credibility has reached historical lows. For example, recent polls suggest that as few as 8% of Americans think that politicians believe most of the stances that they take on issues. This extreme level of cynicism threatens to break a fundamental link in representation. If candidates cannot credibly convey their positions, then voters cannot evaluate them on policy. Yet, we know little about the strategies politicians might take to convey the credibility of their claims. In this paper, we investigate whether politicians can signal credibility by taking extreme positions or by justifying their stances in moral terms. Across three experiments, we show that moral justifications tend to enhance credibility, while extreme positions do not. In a fourth study, we show that while extreme stances increase polarization in candidate ratings, moral justifications do not. Taken together, our findings suggest that moral justifications are a useful strategy to enhance credibility without contributing to rising levels of polarization.
Hypotheses
- H1: Candidates taking extreme issue positions will be perceived as more sincere.
- H2: Issue stances justified with moral language will be perceived as more sincere.
Experimental Manipulations
A within-subjects vignette experiment. Respondents will be asked to evaluate three hypothetical politicians, each taking a stance on a particular issue. Within each candidate profile, the stance will be randomly assigned to one of four conditions in a 2x2 design. The stance will be either extreme or moderate and moral or pragmatic.
Outcomes
An index of the following questions:
- Do you think this candidate truly believes in {stance}, or is just saying what some people want to hear?
- In your opinion, how committed do you think this candidate is to {stance}?
- In your opinion, how likely is it that this candidate will be a leader on {stance}?
- In your opinion, how likely do you think it is that this candidate will flip-flop on {stance} in the future?
Summary of Results
As expected, the moral justification is perceived as significantly more credible than the pragmatic justification (b = .02, p = .002). The extreme position, on the other hand, is seen as slightly, but not significantly less credible than the more moderate position (b = -.007, p = .295). Thus, consistent with Study 1, moral justifications increase credibility, but extreme positions do not. Additionally, we find no evidence of an interaction between the treatments.
References
Paper presented at the the 2019 Texas American Politics Symposium (TAPS).
A PhD isn't really about writing, it's about research. Writing is merely the means of demonstrating that you know how to do research. The way that you break something down involves finding a gap in understanding or a portion of a problem that has not been addressed. Then you find an insight that leads to potential solutions to address the gap. Then you run experiments based around the insight. It is fundamentally a way of thinking, not a way of writing. That's why it's a Doctorate of Philosophy. The actual topic that you cover for your thesis is not as important as the demonstration that you know how to think about research. It's moderately unlikely that you will be working on the same problem in industry.
It's commonplace, at least in engineering programs, to ask whether you're going to go into industry or academia. Research positions in industry typically go to PhDs or Masters with a lot of experience. It is much harder to break into the research world without a PhD in the US. So I believe the original statement:
> a full-time professionalized pursuit under the assumption you will be a professor
is overly specific. Your future could be a professor, a researcher/scientist, or an entrepreneur.