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bitcurious

3,316 karma · joined December 21, 2017

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bitcurious··on Renting vs. Owning a Home, by State
Is that true when you factor in leverage?
bitcurious··on AI is acting ‘pro-anorexia’ and tech companies aren’t stopping it
What we have here is not ai acting in any given manner, but a machine acting as its operator wants it to. AI is/can be the ultimate user agent.
bitcurious··on A venture-backed startup has quietly bought more than 80 mom-and-pop shops
If mom & pop doing the labor wanted to retire by selling the business, they can't. What might have been an asset isn't. So they either keep working even though they are of retirement age, or they close up shop with a smaller nest-egg.
bitcurious··on Meaningful exits for founders (2016)
Would love to have you write about it. Seems like you have both the experience and the appreciation.
bitcurious··on Naomi Wu and the Silence That Speaks Volumes
The folks who would provide insight to China would be the citizens of China. If you buy the premise that China is a totalitarian state, a consequence is that you can’t have a public, nuanced discussion with its citizens, because they may be victimized by the state. So your only source of insight would be history and private conversation.

The USSR is obviously a different situation.

bitcurious··on “Is Fish Meat?” One Justice’s Answer Shows Why the Supreme Court Is So Broken
>As someone who is not American, a court with judges, appointed by an undemocratic, lost-by-popular-vote twice-impeached former president,

In the USA, Supreme Court judges are nominated by a president (who was elected by through a process of representative democracy), but confirmed (closest to appointed) by a democratically elected Senate.

>making rulings that are at odds with many polls out there

The majority of SCOTUS rulings are bipartisan and non-controversial, but let's say we ignore those and focus narrowly on the ones with some controversy around them. The New York Times[0], a left-leaning and anti-Trump institution has identified 12 cases over this past year as "major decisions" and has compiled a page where you can see how the court ruled, and how the public polled. If you read it, you'll see that the Supreme Court diverged from public opinion on only 2 of those 12 cases.

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/06/07/us/major-supr...

Furthermore, the underlying premise that the Supreme Court should be bound by public opinion is democratic only in the most literal sense and would quickly lead to tyranny of the majority.

So I guess I stand with OP - the fact that you, a "non-American" are convinced that what you wrote are "facts" is soft evidence of there being a deliberate effort to undermine faith in the legal system.

bitcurious··on LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
Validation is good for the original team, replication is good for the new team.
bitcurious··on Hollywood movie aside, just how good a physicist was Oppenheimer?
> Only way back, when the US had the "Great Depression" and millions of starving people as well.

The US had millions of hungry people. At the peak of the Great Depression, deaths from starvation peaked at a (still terrible) ~110k. Under Soviet rule, an order of magnitude more, actually millions, perished unnecessarily from hunger just in Ukraine.

https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-ushistory2os2xmaster/...

bitcurious··on Momofuku Ando invented instant ramen (2016)
Those were great a few years ago, but the recipe they use for the noodles themselves has changed and they aren't as good.
bitcurious··on A stationary jet stream is fueling intense heat worldwide
Thought experiment - you could look at life itself as a form of heat management. Consider oil: crudely speaking, it's energy that could have heated some bit of the ocean, but instead was captured by a cell via photosynthesis which died and got buried underground.
bitcurious··on Bank of Canada raises its interest rate to 5%
If one of the largest drivers of inflation is housing, why does the government not balance this act with 0% loans to developers/the construction industry? Drive the supply while slowing demand.
bitcurious··on America Is Wrapped in Miles of Toxic Lead Cables
If Louisiana is a state which allows lead tackle, the fact of it being a fishing hole is likely causal wrt lead pollution.

> A recent Canadian study (ECCC 2018) stated, “An average Canadian angler can lose 11 to 15 jigs and sinkers per year while fishing due to snags and other reasons. This adds up to about 460 metric tons of lead jigs and sinkers lost every year into Canada’s lakes and waterways. This represents the most significant source of lead releases into Canadian waters.”

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6675807/

bitcurious··on Machine Unlearning Challenge
> My totally amateur pet theory is that paranoia is threat pattern recognition gone bonkers.

Supposedly OCD is your brain’s cause-effect loop being too potent. As in, you have a random fear I.e. “stove is on, fire will burn down house,” you go to check the stove, and the act of checking (regardless of its being on) creates the feeling that you saved your house from burning down, so now you feel compelled to check every time. Paraphrased from the Huberman podcast.

bitcurious··on Apple Vision Pro may have VR Apple TV+ content at launch
I’m very excited about high fidelity VR entertainment. A documentary about insects at the scale of insects, looking around at grass or car sized grasshoppers, or giant mushrooms! It’s going to be amazing. Great for theater, ballet, sports, anything else where the real world equivalent has you looking around.
bitcurious··on History of Dogs in Space
Fun fact: Chernushka wore the very first wristwatch in space.

https://www.watchuseek.com/threads/the-actual-very-first-wat...

bitcurious··on U.S. Supreme Court curbs affirmative action in university admissions
“The proof is in the pudding” if we’re sticking with idioms. Where the evidence of systemic racism is a lack of wealth, discriminate on wealth. Where the evidence is family structure, discriminate on family structure. Address disadvantage by addressing disadvantage, not by a racial proxy.

In programmer terms, racial affirmative action is a very lossy hash of reality, which leaves a lot of room for injustice both in terms of who it helps and who it doesn’t.

bitcurious··on Supreme Court strikes down affirmative action in college admissions
Do you feel the same about the courts rulings on segregation? Initially decided on 1896, revisited in 1954.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plessy_v._Ferguson

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_v._Board_of_Education

bitcurious··on South Korea adopts new law to join the international standard of age counting
To play along with the argument, prior to the metric system, units were very local. So it’s not like China and Ghana and Russia and France were all using inches and feet and cups and pints, rather they were all using their own little units of measure, which on the whole turned out to be less convenient than the metric system. The UK and US happened to be (mostly) aligned on a more convenient system that could outcompete the metric system.

That said, I think economic resiliency and early mover (did)advantage are the other parts of that story. Not many nations can handle the trade impediment of their own units of measure, but the UK and US were/are both large enough. And I think because we industrialized early, switching with the rest of the world was more expensive, so we stuck with it.

bitcurious··on False 911 Calls Increase During Festival as iOS Mistakes Dancing for Car Crashes
The average age of a car in the states is 12.5 years. Mandating the tech in cars means that only a small fraction of comparatively well off Americans will benefit from crash detection. Rolling it out in smartphones democratizes this safety feature to a great extent.

Plus, there are pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, etc., who can crash.

bitcurious··on How the Y chromosome makes some cancers more deadly for men
> When interpreting a study like this, the results should not be taken to be to be reliable when applied to trans men

They could apply to trans women, so it’s a worthwhile thing to clarify.

bitcurious··on How the Y chromosome makes some cancers more deadly for men
You ever look at a GitHub project and complain about how someone else used the same variable name as you, but had the gall to assign a different value to it? What you’re doing is the scientific literature equivalent.

The term “man” is understood by a very broad swath of society, and overwhelmingly the educated class who writes for and reads these journals, to refer to the gender construct, not the biological fact. Clarity is always better.

bitcurious··on How the Y chromosome makes some cancers more deadly for men
Medical writings have been ascribing disease to bad airs, humors, gods, and curses, head shape, and all kinds of junk for thousands of years, yet somehow we evolved past that, no?
bitcurious··on North Korean market prices suggest serious food shortages
>There's no alternate history where different government policy in China could have completely averted the famine of 1960. It was a very poor year agriculturally.

Except the one where China hasn't destroyed much of its industry, or alienated much of the world, and thus can trade for food.

Your examples are illustrative as well, inspite of your intention - the next three famines you list (1942, 1936, 1929) all occurred during a civil war in which Mao was a major player on one side, and at a time when part of the country was at war with/under occupation of imperial Japan.

bitcurious··on Russian paramilitary chief says his forces will turn around
Random thoughts:

Prigozhin agreed to a fake stand-down; his troops have been in action for 18 hours, this allows them to regroup and rest for a night and commence again in the morning, with some drummed up excuse.

Prigozhin didn't get the support he expected from the military, so he was was motivated to settle, but had enough support to threaten Moscow, so Putin was motivated to settle. Outcomes - a hardliner in charge of the Russian military, Putin quietly retires in a year or two, hands over reigns without the violence.

Prigozhin was threatened with a tactical nuke, decided it wasn't worth it.

One of Prigozhin's desired outcomes - a change of the guard in Russia's MoD was inevitable given the incompetence shown in the defense of this mutiny. Even if things got truly violent and Wagner was destroyed by force, Shoigu and Gerasimov were out.

Prigozhin's communications are a mix of brutal honesty and subtle manipulation. His allies are a mix of the competent and the fanatical. Overall, the whole thing is bizarre. I'm not convinced it's over.

bitcurious··on Are you a late bloomer in work or love? Maybe you’re right on time
I guess it’s highly regional, but for the US as a whole at least hasn’t had a population decline in ever. Which means that following your logic, sooner is better. I think a more practical bit of advice, if a house if a concern, is to buy a house to raise your children in.
bitcurious··on France’s Mistral AI raises a $113M seed round to take on OpenAI
Credit Suisse, Wirecard, WV emissions scandal? I don’t think corporate fraud/failure is unique to US.
bitcurious··on Cormac McCarthy has died
The Road is one of the most haunting books I’ve ever read. Highly recommend.

Warning though - it broke a game my friends play “how would you survive X apocalypse?” My answer for many switched to “wouldn’t want to.”

bitcurious··on MrBeast has become a viral sensation for his acts of altruism
100%. Everything is in competition for attention. That’s the market world we live in.
bitcurious··on MrBeast has become a viral sensation for his acts of altruism
Two reasons I find this distasteful. It might be a net good still, I’m not sure. It’s not obvious however.

One downside is that it competes for the same “feel-good” feeling which much more effective charities compete for. Someone engages with Mr.Beast, feels like they did good. Later they walk by a food shelter in need of volunteers and thinks “I already did my part.” As we have parasocial relationships, we have paraphilanthropy. I suspect it ultimately makes people less compassionate and caring. This is hinted at here:

> For Miller, what makes Donaldson remarkable is that he essentially asks his audience to see themselves as a commodity, and to therefore see their views and likes and shares as a force for good: “MrBeast is actually telling people that they’re entering a marketplace, by saying, ‘If you watch this, this is worth so much money, I can raise this much money and I can spend it on good causes.’” As Donaldson says in one video for his philanthropic sub-channel: “Beast Philanthropy is literally funded by your eyeballs. Not even joking.”

Truth is, watching hours of YouTube isn't doing good. At best it’s entertainment, at worst it’s hours of human potential wasted.

The other downside is that it normalizes the extrinsic reward to doing good. Kindness done for the “thank you” breeds resentment. The vulnerable can be thankful, but they can also be angry, frustrated, confused, hurt, mentally ill, etc. Sustainable kindness is done for oneself.

bitcurious··on A birder's quest to see 10k species
> Compare for example with Pokemon Go, I find it infinitely more rewarding to "hunt" something real.

Ha, that’s exactly how I describe mushrooming. You might find it similarly satisfying, though if you plan on foraging for food I recommend taking a course on identification (most communities have a mycology club) and sticking to the basics.

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