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belviewreview

92 karma · joined October 17, 2025

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belviewreview··on Why Can't Writers Seem to Quit Substack?
What is your evidence for your claim?
belviewreview··on Energy Prices Are Driving Demand for Solar Panels and Heat Pumps
Remember how fossil fuel promoters always say its big advantage over solar and wind energy is reliability?
belviewreview··on Energy Prices Are Driving Demand for Solar Panels and Heat Pumps
Recover 98.04% of waste heat energy? That may follow the 1st Law of Thermodynamics, but it definitely violates the 2nd.
belviewreview··on U.S. Schools Face a Crisis as the Number of Children Drops
The US is much better at integrating immigrants into its society and making them economically productive.
belviewreview··on Why Only Rich Kids Make It in Music Today
There are various causes. One is that live performing has pretty much died as a source of income. Venues have closed because of rising rents and fewer customers, due to covid and people in general staying home and spending their time on social media. Touring has also gotten much more expensive.

Also recording has died out as a source of income for most artists due to streaming and now ai. Also session work where most musicians have been replace first by computer generated music and now ai.

Also recording companies have stopped signing acts and then publicizing them. Every artist is expected to do their own promoting on social media. And then, as Beato says in the video, there is the lack of practice spaces, and cheap apartments to live in.

I am a fan of the astonishing prodigy drummer Yoyoka Soma. She moved her family from Japan to LA 4 years ago, but was able to do it only because she has a rich patron. I am also a fan of the astonishing prodigy singer Angelina Jordan. She moved her family from Norway to LA 7 years ago, but was able to do it only because her grandmother, whom moved with them, is wealthy.

belviewreview··on The Dunning-Kruger effect is probably just from bimodal skill distributions
This is so speculative. I think the first step in determining why some people believe they are much more competent than they really are would be to interview them on how they came to believe it.

I think the fact that the author thinks this is unnecessary and that he can determine the cause of this phenomenon without this sort of empirical research indicates he believes he is better at understanding how one goes about determining human psychology than he really is.

belviewreview··on Acetaminophen vs. ibuprofen
Was the article flat out wrong or at least misleading in any way that might lead people to make poor decisions regarding which drug to take?
belviewreview··on How can I keep from singing?
Some people learn to sing, and some people were born to sing www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXknLZDoRVQ
belviewreview··on What have been the greatest intellectual achievements? (2017)
I agree. And modern Western science and political thought has followed Aristotle far more than Plato. In particular, the parts of Aristotle's science that got thrown out was the result of following out his empirical method further than he was able to. We have also followed his empirical approach to political philosophy rather than Plato's Republic.
belviewreview··on Decisions that eroded trust in Azure – by a former Azure Core engineer
The problem started because Azure was initially designed and released in a huge rush because Microsoft was so far behind AWS and needed something better.

I am reminded of the research finding that every human-designed complex system that works well started with a simple system that did did just one thing well, and new functions were added one at a time, with each one perfected before moving on to another. Which is the exact opposite of what happened here.

belviewreview··on Professional video editing, right in the browser with WebGPU and WASM
For what use cases is this supposed to be better than using a desktop editor like OpenShot?
belviewreview··on Our commitment to Windows quality
Remember, Microsoft's goal is to turn Windows into an AI agent that keeps all your data in the cloud, that it can use that data for endless money-making purposes like advertising, and that you pay for with a dozen different subscriptions.

Microsoft will continue to move in that direction in various overt and covert manners, and any so-called responding to what users wants is just a charade.

belviewreview··on Why are Chinese EVs cheaper than Tesla
I have read that Musk has given up the car industry, except for cybertaxis, because he think Tesla could never compete on price with the Chinese manufacturers.
belviewreview··on The Robotic Dexterity Deadlock
The basic problem is that human hands are made of flesh, while robot hands are made of artificial materials like steel and carbon fiber composites. Flesh is a million times more complex, starting at the molecular level, and so it can do all sorts of things that artificial materials cannot.

Compare for instance a jetliner and a bird. The jetliner can fly fast and carry a lot of cargo or human beings. The bird is a lot smaller and slower, but it can do all sorts of things a jetliner cannot. This includes growing itself from a single fertilized egg, self-repair, defense against attacks of various types, finding and getting food, building its own shelter, and reproduction. All because it is made of biological cells. And note that for a jetliner, the similar tasks are carried out by human beings also made of biological cells.

I think a similar analysis explains why artificial general intelligence is impossible.

belviewreview··on A new California law says all operating systems need to have age verification
A few thoughts:

Won't kids just lie about their age, like they do to sign up with social media?

What if more than one person uses the pc?

What if it is sold?

If the OS is open source, then the user could remove the software code to collect the data.

This is protect-young-people theater.

If

belviewreview··on The US Had a Big Battery Boom Last Year
Am I correct in assuming that you believe, as Trump puts it, that global climate change is a hoax invented by the Chinese to ruin the American economy? And that we should stay on fossil fuels forever?

Or if I am wrong about you, then tell us what you yourself actually believe. What do you specifically believe about global climate change? And what specifically should we be doing about energy? And also, what do you think about Trump's claim that wind turbines cause cancer, and his claim that China has no wind turbines?

I strongly suspect that you won't answer these questions, or you will do so but in a vague, evasive manner. But perhaps I am wrong about this.

belviewreview··on Wikipedia deprecates Archive.today, starts removing archive links
I use archive.today all the time. How do you access pages, like for instance on the economist, without it?
belviewreview··on Noam Chomsky's wife responds to Epstein controversy
I think it is plausible that this piece by Chomsky's wife is honest. However, I have one problem with it. This is that it does not say what they did when they learned the truth about Epstein in 2019. Did they cut off all relations?
belviewreview··on Why This Computer Scientist Says All Cryptocurrency Should "Die in a Fire" (2022)
"No, not at present - but there will be in the future" That seems to imply that until that future arrives, people should mostly stay away from cybercurrencies.

I am bringing all this up because when cybercurrencies were getting started, the people boosting them assured us that they would soon be doing all sorts of wonderful things, and nothing bad would happen. That prediction turned out to be wildly mistaken. And instead of considering that maybe the idea itself is just basically bad, in the years since they keep insisting that soon it will all be fixed.

Can you understand why, given this long history, I would be dubious? Or is it your view that I am under some sort of moral obligation to believe that the approaches to fixing it being worked on at present are absolutely certain to work?

belviewreview··on Listen to Understand
I am a listening trainer, and have taken over 1,500 people through a basic session in active listening. But that said, I agree with you that what matters is having a good relationship, and that involves using different communication skills at different times.
belviewreview··on Why This Computer Scientist Says All Cryptocurrency Should "Die in a Fire" (2022)
A couple of questions.

(1) can you point to some large important positive uses of Bitcoin at present, or are you just saying that at some point in the future we will see them?

(2) are you saying all the bad things like Ponzi scams, hacking, drug money monitoring, buying csam and ransomware, have stopped, or that at some point in the future they will?

belviewreview··on Pretty soon, heat pumps will be able to store and distribute heat as needed
The question is would it cost less over the long term than any other solution. My intuition is it would, at least for a lot of use cases, but it would need to be put into practice and studied to see if this is actually true.
belviewreview··on Professors Are Being Watched: 'We've Never Seen This Much Surveillance'
I see what you are saying, but not publishing the materials is not going to solve the problem. That's because the people who are attacking the professors will just get it by some other means, like having someone attend the class.

Remember, the attackers are not a few oddballs. The are members of a vast MAGA movement that has enough member to elect the present president and that encourages this sort of behavior. And they have tons of money behind them.

belviewreview··on Pretty soon, heat pumps will be able to store and distribute heat as needed
A heat pump gets more heat from a given amount of electricity than if the electricity is use for resistive heating. So the ideal design is solar cell + sodium battery + heat pump.
belviewreview··on Solar panels on land used for biofuels could power all cars and trucks electric
Actually for most trucking batteries are already practical. Most trucks travel only one or two hundred miles a day, like doing deliveries or going from a port to a warehouse, or a warehouse to a location like a factory or store. And even long-range trucking is mostly with loads that are volume constrained, not weight, so the additional weight of batteries is not a big problem. The big advantage of batteries is lower cost per mile
belviewreview··on Solar panels on land used for biofuels could power all cars and trucks electric
Here's a company actually doing this https://www.terraformindustries.com/
belviewreview··on Iran's state broadcaster IRIB was hacked to air a message from Reza Pahlavi
It is possible to strongly disapprove of both Israel's policies in Gaza and the present regime in Iran. Or is it the case that you support the present regime?
belviewreview··on Iran's state broadcaster IRIB was hacked to air a message from Reza Pahlavi
So do you think most Iranians approve of the present regime? And if not, what do you think they should be doing?
belviewreview··on The five orders of ignorance (2000)
This is one reason why artificial general intelligence is impossible. It is because most of the knowledge needed would require knowledge that does not already exist in text form.
belviewreview··on Jonathan Haidt Brings New Evidence to the Battle Against Social Media
Here's a question. Suppose a corporation made its money off a particular product. And suppose the corporation's own scientists discovered that this product caused major harm. How would the corporation respond, among three choices

   1) Stop making and selling the product, and support its being banned.

   2) Continue to sell the product, but with a clear description of the harm.

   3) Engage in a campaign to fool everyone into believing it is not harmful.
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