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barnacled

648 karma · joined October 17, 2020

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barnacled··on What happens when the CCP decides that you need to die
"and probably many more" is an understatement. There is mass organ harvesting from Falun Gong followers [0] and God knows how many die in the Uighur concentration camps [1].

There is a 99.9% conviction rate in crimes in China [2] (which is the same as basically having no rule of law) and political prisoners seemingly 'disappear' all the time.

China are known for lying consistently about almost everything and keep a tight lid (as much as they can) on anything that would cause them to 'lose face' both within and without the country so any estimates are likely significantly low.

[0]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organ_harvesting_from_Falun_Go... [1]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_re-education_camps [2]:https://qz.com/246696/chinas-criminal-conviction-rate-is-99-...

barnacled··on Fired App Reviewer Sues Apple
Can you re-read my post and explain which part of it advocates for censorship?

You (and the downvoters) have entirely misunderstood what I said. I thought opening with 'China are a god-awful totalitarian lying genocidal state and Apple are ruthless hypocrites' would make it abundantly clear my stance on this. Apparently not.

barnacled··on Tesla Short Sellers Lost $38B in 2020 as Stock Surged
Very ironic given Elon's endless tirades about short sellers. The problem solves itself...
barnacled··on The Big Little Guide to Message Queues
Before I got my current job I reached the final round (of 4 or 5!!) at a startup where I was failed because I failed to say 'message queue' or mention RabbitMQ (the interview used to work for them I think) for a question of 'how would you implement whatsapp?' I was told I was a good enough lowly developer but not the right stuff for senior.

So perhaps I'm bitter but, while they seem useful for specific purposes, it does feel a little religious and one of these presumed 'must have if we're serious' class of program when other solutions which architecturally resemble them might suit the problem far better.

In my current job we interact with kafka and have definitely encountered many less than ideal aspects of its behaviour. But I guess that must be the junior developer talking again ;)

barnacled··on Drone users face new rules across Europe and UK
ah yeah there's a camera so would need to get an operator ID. Thanks!
barnacled··on Drone users face new rules across Europe and UK
I am super curious about the DJI mini 2 - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Ayibagexi-Sashas-Fierce-Lemonade-Al... - I hope this won't get overly impacted by the new rules (I am in the UK).
barnacled··on Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK
I'm not sure a small subset having a bad reaction to a known-untested vaccine they volunteered to have would have quite as bad an impact as you say, certainly not 100 years of lower uptake! It would likely have some kind of an impact though, and give fuel to anti-vaxxer types (yuk) but I am not sure the impact would be quite so severe.
barnacled··on Contributing Without Code
That's a very good habit to be in, however when it comes to external-facing stuff, e.g. APIs, or stuff that needs a lot more detail (and especially examples) then you're going to need more than self-documenting code.

Of course getting out of sync is a real massive issue and a total pain. But that's another reason for people to contribute to such things :)

barnacled··on Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK
In the case of highly vulnerable patients the death rate is vastly higher, easily into the double-digits, e.g. https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/frailty-old-age-a... - with extreme risk factors and old age the death rate is staggering.

If you had e.g. a 75% chance of death but the vaccine had a 0.01% chance of killing or seriously impairing you, even taking into account all the issues and the risk of actually catching it the risk seems worthwhile.

However this discussion does make me think that the candidate range is going to be pretty narrow, and of course all concerned would have to be able and willing to give informed consent many of whom presumably would not.

barnacled··on Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK
That's a very good point, latter should be P(death ^ covid) I suppose!

I still think the numbers would arguably work out well given the general safety especially of the mRNA vaccines (as I understand it).

It wouldn't be a simple or easy decision but it's one that should be considered (very carefully!)

barnacled··on Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK
At the cost of how many lives? And if the vaccine is successful how would that harm buy-in? If not then it's a failed experiment (though obviously the PR impact could be rather negative!)

I think it's pretty clear from the past year that we need different tools and approaches to dealing with pandemics. One part is clearly faster vaccine development (mRNA seems very promising for this) and pre-emptive vaccine development, another might be permitting very much informed consent take up early on.

barnacled··on Contributing Without Code
I contribute to the linux kernel and one key part of it is its extensive documentation - one of the patches I made was to correct some invalid offsets there - there is so much that can be done there that isn't code.

If even the kernel which is pretty specific low-level stuff can benefit from that then more-so pretty much any other open source project, and extremely value for it! Good technical descriptions are surprisingly hard to find.

barnacled··on Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK
>So you never asked anyone. The problem is, if you ignore ethics, which of course says a lot about your priorities, still two fold.

This is offensive and I suggest you re-read my post (as well as the HN comment guidelines). I am not ignoring ethics, I specifically mention informed consent. I also have no idea what you mean by 'so you never asked anyone' - this is a hypothetical??

>The goal is to get millions vaccinated, not just a few elderly so that some people can go out partying again without feeling bad.

You're also strawmanning me pretty hard here.

> But this small benefit would have caused tremendous issues in a couple of weeks / months.

Not even sure how you come to this conclusion (you seem 100% certain that distributing the now-proven safe mRNA vaccine early would have caused tremendous issues, somehow).

You seem to want to be aggressive to me and strawman me as somebody who doesn't care about covid victims (my grandmother is 85 and has serious comorbidity risks thank you very much) so I am not going to respond further but I suggest you focus on arguments, not insults and dismissive comments. You can go to reddit and much of the rest of the internet for that.

barnacled··on Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK
'Because of ethics' and 'these rules are there for a reason' are not arguments, they're 'shut up' encoded. Present arguments please.

The progress of the vaccine has been incredible compared to usual, but that doesn't mean more could have been done. Every death is a tragedy.

People are constantly used as guinea pigs... as long as there is informed consent as per the Nuremberg code it's fine. Not suggesting anybody would be forced or ill-informed.

So back to my argument - you can make a reasonable guess at estimating P(death|vaccine) vs. P(death|covid) and set a big margin, then offer people to VOLUNTARILY agree to take it who are most at risk of dying.

The average age of death in the UK is 82 mostly with co-morbidities. I am sure many of these dead would have been happy to take the chance.

And in the case of the mRNA vaccines this not some trivial difference - some were developed within weeks/months, but took nearly a year longer to pass all testing.

It's really obvious that pandemics need different handling than the 'lock down and loads of people die anyway, both from the virus and the consequences of lockdown while ruining the economy + wait 2yrs for a vaccine to be fully distributed' approach we've got.

I hope lessons are learned from covid (I'm actually optimistic they will be, in countries other than the one where the virus emerged anyway).

barnacled··on Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK
You could distribute it in limited batches to only the most vulnerable which should reduce any risk of that. I think the most vulnerable are in any case most likely to already be heavily using the health services anyway (and would be the ones engaging them the most if they caught the virus).
barnacled··on Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK
An issue that I basically never see come up is - why not administer the vaccine earlier on (pre-approval) to the most vulnerable? if P(death|vaccine) < P(death|covid) then it seems really barbaric not to give it. Many dead people now could be alive had that been done (and mRNA candidates were apparently available extremely early on).

The Oxford vaccine is a more classical one so wasn't available quite as early, but apparently the mRNA ones were developed in a very short space of time (weeks - months) and future development could cut that even further (and preemptive vaccines for potential pandemic-causing viruses could be kept in stock) - perhaps introducing a Bayesian triage pre-approval could be an important strategy in fighting viruses in the future?

In any case this and the mRNA vaccines are really tremendous achievements and somewhat restores my faith in humanity after a terrible year...

barnacled··on Apple’s longtime supplier accused of using forced labor in China
I think that's a very unfair assessment of my original comment and very dismissive.

Do not make the mistake of thinking everybody who criticises a company like apple is naive as to the complexities and difficulties around supply chains at scale. I certain don't.

Having literally worked for one of apple's suppliers who they bankrupted to bring the process in-house I have given this probably a lot more thought than you imagine.

They have been trying to vertically integrate all suppliers as much as humanly possible for reasons of control, margin and competitive advantage. This has been apple's approach for many years and they have been utterly ruthless in doing so.

If they had the will to start to take the steps to actually divest from a literally genocidal state, they could do it. They simply do not care.

The part I do agree with you on is that they also know their customers do not care, and consumer awareness and action is a key part of pushing back on this kind of thing.

But please do not absolve apple of guilt by waving your hands and saying the supply chain is too interdependent and complicated.

If they can take steps to fuck over suppliers for profit and control, they can take steps to avoid slave labour.

barnacled··on Apple’s longtime supplier accused of using forced labor in China
Absolutely it would be very costly, absolutely the expertise might not even exist at scale in an alternative country, absolutely it would take effort and pain and a long time.

But apple appear to, in the decades since the iPhone made them richer than many countries, have made zero effort whatsoever to address these issues.

Having worked at an apple supplier that they bankrupted in order to make the process entirely in-house (one of many they've done that to) I just do not buy that they could not have taken steps to divest. Some. Any.

Of course the issues are true of many other companies, but as I said in my original comment, the fact they portray some woke mentality (under which every single microscopic thing somebody does can be considered 'problematic') while continuing to take little to no action in divesting from a literally genocidal state which harvest organs says something about them.

The combination of their outrageous markups (which _could_ permit a more costly but more ethical supply chain) due to which they'd not have to increase prices (and thus making them one of the most able to actually divest like that), their utterly ruthless business practices and their woke and patronising pandering makes them a particularly egregious case, so in my opinion far worse than the likes of amazon, etc. (not discounting bad things they do, just a matter of perspective).

barnacled··on Apple’s longtime supplier accused of using forced labor in China
Interesting that large parts of that supply chain coincidentally operate in parts of the world which have extremely low wages and virtually no worker rights.

Having worked at a company that Apple bankrupted in order to bring their work in-house I respectfully disagree that they lack the will or ability to avoid complicity with a genocidal totalitarian state.

barnacled··on Google Maps' Moat Is Evaporating
ah yes I have encountered this repeatedly myself!
barnacled··on Apple’s longtime supplier accused of using forced labor in China
And yet Tim Cook has the cheek to get 'woke'. Apple could easily afford to build everything in a country that isn't an awful dictatorship running concentration camps and still earn obscene profits.

And yet they still somehow maintain this aura of being the 'good guys'...

barnacled··on Google Maps' Moat Is Evaporating
One thing I have noticed and found really irritating is the degradation of the street view functionality in Google maps. They have got lazy. I used to be able to click or keyboard navigate through a route but now it either stops responding to clicks, transports me onto a nearby motorway randomly,or gets massively unresponsive.

I am very glad there is some competition coming, as good as Google maps is they are clearly resting on their laurels and not bothering to fix blatant issues.

Competition is good.

barnacled··on 2020 had some significant silver linings
Again you are trivialising things that are far wider-reaching as do many on the 'forever lockdown' side. They are not just shutting down public health risks and asking people to wear masks, they are instituting, at least in the UK, law by decree (as per provisions by the Public Health Act 1984) clearly exceeding the intentions of it, for example. I recommend the lord Sumption video I linked in another comment if you want more details, but authoritarian measures are being used and govts historically do NOT like to let go of powers granted during emergencies.

E.g. the Patriot act...

The thing with stuff like that is people like me who point this out will get sneered at at the time, but later when these powers are abused you'll forget that we warned you. This is NOT trivial. This is NOT small.

barnacled··on 2020 had some significant silver linings
“The majority of the people in China do not eat wildlife animals. Those people who consume these wildlife animals are the rich and the powerful –a small minority.”

Thanks for that, I viewed that some time ago and found it very informative. I am not sure I'd agree it plays a big economical role, rather it became an alternative outlet for some producers but mostly it appears to be a luxury item for the rich and thus entirely viable for China to ban.

I'd have a lot more sympathy if poor people ate such animals to survive (as with a lot of 'bush meat' in Africa) however that isn't the case.

China have no excuse for not closing these, at all. Traditional Chinese 'medicine' where they grind down very many animal parts in extremely unclean environments is another big flashpoint.

The risk is at the species-extinction level yet the actions by the world and the coverage by journalists is so low. Astonishes me.

barnacled··on 2020 had some significant silver linings
>If you really imagine that any country in the world has either the means or the will to impose sanctions on the US or the UK, you definitely live in a different international community than I do.

I don't think you've been following much of the recent news about brexit or the trade wars with China. Of course countries can condemn and criticise others for their actions. Nearly the entire western press corps have been non-stop criticising your sitting president for the past 4 years. So I think we live in the same world. Why can't the press at the very least be honest and consistent about China?

>And blaming China, which was giving correct information about the virus by January, for so many states refusing to take serious measures EVEN TODAY would be a total farce.

https://twitter.com/who/status/1217043229427761152?lang=en

Jan 14th - as reported by China. They repeatedly lied (demonstrably) about their death figures and the nature of the disease. Evidence emerged that actually China NEVER reported the pandemic nature of the disease but rather it was (still rather complicit) WHO staff on the ground who reported it.

They also permitted international flights but not domestic ones once that virus was known about, hoarded PPE and spread a conspiracy theory about the US having originated the virus.

I also find it astonishing that you seem to think a country that could have prevented 95% of cases having not covered it up should be lauded for giving advice about self-isolation and lockdowns after it caused them. The families of 0.95 * 1.5M people thank you so much for the clarification.

>China did try to cover up the virus in December of last year, and should be condemned for it. But they then showed the world how to deal with it and shared all of the relevant information as early as February. The failed responses by all European states and the US, most/all Latin American states, most Middle Eastern states etc. can in no way be blamed on China.

The contention that delayed lockdowns (delayed due to China lying up until January and continuously lying about their death figures) would have saved all these lives is honestly laughable. The trade off between lockdowns and the economy is very difficult as is contact tracing in a non-totalitarian state.

>If you want to see what a non-story this virus could have been if there were political will to do the right thing, you need only look at Vietnam. They are a 100M-people state taht have 4 times fewer cases in total by today than 10M people Sweden gets each and every day.

Apples and oranges. Centres of European trade who have considerably wider travel arriving at them and no culture of e.g. mask-wearing and governments ill-adopted to authoritarian measures vs. a communist country with considerably less is not the same at all. And we mustn't forget the impact of climate (hotter climate = considerably less impact).

China had a warning in 2003 to shut down their wet markets and arrogantly ignored it. They reopened the wet markets shortly after covid-19 broke out and covered up the outbreak. This is not even getting into the quite plausible walked-out-of-the-lab theories and it's still clear they're responsible for the pandemic.

The CCP are a dreadful totalitarian government who should be held to account. Instead they sabre-rattle, lie, spread misinformation and attack any country that dares question their narrative threatening economic consequences (see e.g. Australia).

Chinese people are the biggest victims of them. Many more millions will die before that awful group get overthrown. But their time will come.

barnacled··on 2020 had some significant silver linings
It does astonish me how poorly people understand different in _magnitude_ between offences and how quickly we get into whataboutism.

>If a similarly dangerous flu mutation jumps from a pig to an undocumented agricultural worker in the United States, and goes viral across the globe, will you also refer to that as 'unleashing a pandemic'?

Absolutely, why on earth would you think I wouldn't? I'm borderline offended by the implication and this subtle-not-so-subtle 'if you criticise x you're racist' narrative is dangerous nonsense. Refrain from it please.

>Animal rights advocacy groups have for decades been reminding us that conditions in modern farms are dangerous and unsanitary, so it's not like we don't have any advance warning for it.

Absolutely, and spillover from ecological incursions is a huge issue. I hope there is more emphasis put on the risks now. I recommend the book 'spillover' on this topic.

However it's vitally important to realise - some countries are at higher risk than others for various reasons, China being a HUGE flashpoint for this issue, and there ARE things we can do.

Wet markets are disgusting horrific places and also HUGELY risky from a spillover event perspective. In 2003 and SARS 1 (note covid-19 is literally SARS v2) this is precisely how the virus emerged. China's response was, as now, to only briefly close these horrific places of animal torture. The world remained silent and no pressure was put upon them to change this. We already had our warning.

They additionally covered up the outbreak and punished those who reported it. Do not defend this either implicitly or explicitly. There are reports that, had they immediately reported it, we could have avoided 95% of worldwide cases. 1.5M * 0.95 is quite a lot of deaths to be directly responsible for isn't it?

As I said in another comment, it is very possible another pandemic could break out even if China did everything they could to prevent it. But to ignore serious points of vulnerability which indeed caused a previous outbreak and then to try to cover it up is unforgivable. There is a genuine case for that being considered at the very least a crime against humanity if not an act of war given the consequences.

>... Also, it became incredibly clear to anyone that was paying attention that COVID was a serious threat in January. Yet, most of the western world collectively sat on its hands for the next month and a half. Will your historians also leave a few chapters on the subject of just how incapable our societies are at dealing with epidemics?

China told the WHO there was no human-to-human transmission in January as per their famous tweet. And it came out later evidence to the contrary came not from Chinese authorities but in fact WHO representatives on the ground. So believing the WHO and China is part of why.

No question most countries utterly fucked this up however, and there is much to improve, but to ignore the totalitarian, evil government responsible for many millions of deaths and who harvest organs and put people in concentration camps and to do the whole 'oh but you'd never say that about the USA lol' thing is really not on. I would be just as firm on any country responsible and if they did not do EVERYTHING in their power to prevent and mitigate this I would castigate them, even if it were my own country.

In China doing that gets you disappeared. Remember that and remember the privilege you have to disagree with me. The Chinese do not have that luxury.

barnacled··on 2020 had some significant silver linings
Thank you for taking the time to take a look. It is a lengthily one but I do certainly recommend spending the time to listen, it is of course very UK-centric but a lot of the points he makes are valid globally.

I am not advocating some absolute zero-measure approach but I also don't agree with the lockdowns which have repeatedly failed to work on any kind of permanent basis and whose costs are entirely ignored.

The rational approach is a measured one taking into account all costs. Unfortunately politics, especially partisan ones don't work that way...

barnacled··on 2020 had some significant silver linings
I'm very proud to see this go to negative votes, as it entirely proves my point. Every time democracies abandon that for authoritarian measures there is always a seemingly highly justified reason at the time and those who speak out would be similarly pilloried...

Injustices are always justified but never just.

barnacled··on 2020 had some significant silver linings
In the UK law is being passed by decree without parliamentary approval, fundamental democratic freedoms are being specifically prohibited - freedom of speech, assembly and association and prosecution of people conducting hitherto legal and proper businesses.

The pattern is entirely that of emergency 'enabling law' examples from the past when equally scary things gave them apparent justification.

Boiling things down to 'just asking to wear a mask' is at best deeply naive and at worst arrogantly dismissive. Break out of the soundbites and take a moment to think about what's happening in historical context.

If you want a serious and reasoned analysis of the worries, concerns and threats under these circumstances (at least from a UK perspective) I firmly recommend you view Lord Sumption's thoughts on this matter (recently retired judge from the supreme court of the UK with a long and highly respected career in the judiciary) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amDv2gk8aa0

Unfortunately under circumstances such as the covid-19 mess we all live under (and thank your lucky stars you are in a 1st world country, the 3rd world will suffer at unimaginable levels, highly likely considerably moreso due to covid-19 aid cuts than covid-19 itself) things are considerably greyer than 'conspiracy theory nuts vs. just asking to put a mask on'. If only it were that simple.

barnacled··on 2020 had some significant silver linings
Yes it is astonishing - I think the fact the context ends criticism of measures that would be considered laughable at ordinary times goes a long way to explaining similarly extreme measures we find difficult to understand from the past.

History tells us govts that gain powers during emergencies are extremely reticent to give them up once the ostensible emergency is over.

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