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avastmick

278 karma · joined December 3, 2017

[ my public key: https://keybase.io/avastmick; my proof: https://keybase.io/avastmick/sigs/6rmWIpZO7a0t0nQula8OSnWs_kQusjYeUzrk8i6yxVY ]
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avastmick··on London's Thames, once biologically dead, has been coming back to life
The impact of sheep is under estimated. On Dartmoor in the UK sheep roam freely and there are very few trees. However, there are pockets of fenced areas that are thickly grown with upland oak and ash that would have presumably been what the whole moor would have had.
avastmick··on Virtually no one left to vaccinate in Portugal: 98% of those eligible vaccinated
This site is interesting on the history. https://www.historyofvaccines.org/content/articles/history-a...
avastmick··on Virtually no one left to vaccinate in Portugal: 98% of those eligible vaccinated
I’ve wondered this often during the crisis. Normally, to me anyway, in crisis, politicians fall back on a toolbox of propaganda.

I’ve been waiting on the, “Anti- vaccination is un-American. And the conspiracy theories are all a (Russian/Chinese/Iranian) plot to undermine our way of life,” rhetoric. But it never came along.

avastmick··on Child-care workers quitting, a red flag for the economy
As per another comment, I’m unsure why you cut off at 12 years old.

That said, the role of schools in child care is often overlooked for the less economically measurable benefits of education. Without the child care provided by schools, many parents could not afford to work in developed nations. So dropping the age kids can go to school may be worth while.

Another area of school/childcare/education is the long holidays kids get. Malcolm Gladwell’s book, Outliers discusses the spurious origins of long school vacations.

Note, my wife is a high school science teacher and agrees with Gladwell’s hypothesis that long school holidays disadvantage poorer kids.

avastmick··on Elections are flawed -it’s time to start choosing our representatives by lottery
Totally agree with this. Appointing a jury is via a lottery. Most justice systems around the world see this as a via way of approaching the problem. Sure there are flaws, but few laid at the door of juries themselves.

I think it would be great to move away from the thinly veiled popularity contests that is modern democracy.

avastmick··on Ten Years of Fukushima Disinformation
Sorry you feel so emotionally about this topic. However please refrain from ad hominem attacks: it doesn’t help constructive discussion.

There are facts that do not readily line up with the scale of response to the failures that surround the disaster.

Compared to the damage that coal and gas has on the environment and the numbers who will suffer through their continued use in power production or die in their sourcing, nuclear seems a reasonably safe alternative. Note too the many many trillions that will be spent in addressing climate change, again nuclear seems a cost effective alternative.

Taking solutions off the table due to bias, poor data and evidence doesn’t help find a path ahead for power production for humanity’s future needs.

avastmick··on Ten Years of Fukushima Disinformation
This is an excellent resource that consolidates data that is largely scattered.

I wonder the motivation for those who are so anti-nuclear that they would distort the data or even lie in many cases.

Surely, the fourth largest earthquake, plus a huge tsunami leaving so many dead, yet causing so little provable danger from the nuclear facility would, in most other domains, be generally seen as a resounding endorsement of its safety.

Nuclear is like terrorism in that the fear and reality of effect are so far apart. In both cases it’s far more dangerous to ride in a car.

avastmick··on Toyota halts all self-driving e-Palette vehicles after Olympic village accident
The vehicles have since restarted.[1]

I think that Toyota's position on AVs is largely counter to the rest of the market, and the CE largely states this in his post-incident briefing. They see the AV market as more a tram-like shuttle experience [2], so limited in scope, rather than full on Level 5. Toyota's contrary position is similar to their position to BEVs, where the CEO has stated he sees hydrogen as the solution, not batteries.

In each case their position is possibly out of date given the advances made in both AVs and battery technology developed elsewhere.

[1] https://electrek.co/2021/08/30/toyota-resumes-self-driving-o...

[2] https://digital.hbs.edu/platform-rctom/submission/toyotas-an...

avastmick··on George Mason professor wins Covid antibody lawsuit as vaccine exemption
> Why do we accept [the state telling people what to do with their bodies in some cases] but are suddenly outraged by vaccination?

We're certainly not "suddenly outraged by vaccination". In fact, vaccines and anti-vaccine sentiment have historically gone hand in hand[1]. The historical reaction to vaccines _is_ worsened when mandated. The Anti-Compulsory Vaccination League was formed in 1866 in reaction to the British compulsory vaccination order for smallpox.[2] Would smalpox have been eliminated if people could have chosen for themselves?

[1] https://www.historyofvaccines.org/index.php/content/articles... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Anti-Vaccination_Leag...

avastmick··on QR codes have replaced restaurant menus. Industry experts say it isn’t a fad
I saw this roll out in China five years go when we lived there as a family for some years. The mobile platforms there are much more highly integrated than in the West, with in-built payments and reviews all in-app. So it was all very friction free. The locals were not all happy about it. Younger people took to it well. But it was great for expats who found the language(s) hard to navigate person to person. It cut down on wait times in busy restaurants and those with staff hesitant to serve foreigners with likely no local language skills. It seemed more efficient as the waiters generally took your order and then rekeyed into an order app, either there and then or at the serving station. I guess at high-end restaurants it would lack the personal and tailored dining experience. But for average places I found it an improvement over the often spotty experience of in person order taking with mistakes in ordering or forgotten items etc. It’s new so not everyone likes it. Without better integrated payment and feedback the UX will likely be clunky for a good while.
avastmick··on History of Anti-Vaccination (2018)
I thought this was a fascinating page that simply shows the history of anti-vaccination. It started right at the beginning and has never gone away.

Interesting that ethics and public discourse (or lack thereof) can trigger the most adverse reactions. Make me think that the medical profession may need to do a better job at transparency and communication.

avastmick··on We’re all teenagers now: The adolescent mindset transformed the US and the world
I have to largely agree with those who complain of the article’s Golden Ageist position.

There is no empirical evidence in the piece. And this is obvious given that any evidence could only be subjective and interpretative based on behaviour between humans.

There is a great deal of objective[0] evidence that the general well-being of humans across the globe has improved. Women’s rights, famine, absolute poverty, gay rights, etc., etc., have all improved objectively in the period the article portrays. Even in the US, the focus of the article, this is generally true.

Could I ask a question? If we were to accept the article’s position as true, how many would trade the subjective deterioration of customs such as politeness and adherence to rules for the objective improvement in those things I list above?

[0]Some objective stats: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190111-seven-reasons-wh...

avastmick··on Study Finds Ultra-Processed Foods Drive Weight Gain
Not so much it seems [0]. The actual consumption of calories appears dependent on the source of the calories and what you eat those with.

0: https://www.1843magazine.com/features/death-of-the-calorie

avastmick··on 28,000-year-old mammoth cells have shown reactivity in mouse egg cells
Population growth is in decline in real terms [0], but as you say it will take decades, unless you advocate enforced involuntary euthenasia. Even plunging populations, as Japan is experiencing [1], brings other problems such as economic recession. We really need to stop worrying about population [2] and revisit some baseless norms of common policy, such as "trickle-down economics" and other Friedman gems that leads to rampant overconsumption and wealth concentration.

There is hope, we just need to listen to those who want a change, not those who just want to maintain their already huge asset piles.

0: https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_on_global_population_... 1: https://www.npr.org/2018/12/21/679103541/japans-population-i... 2: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Modest_Proposal

avastmick··on How We’ll Know an AI Is Conscious
This.

The concept of consciousness assumes that (ethically) all humans are conscious. If that were not true, then we have to ask, what is the threshold - as we would of machines. If people cannot all pass the test, as you say, not all humans are conscious. Are those that fail sub-human? If tests are not viable for humans, why are we conscious? At what point is one conscious? Is it a property of your age; if so at what age? Is it variable; am I more conscious than you? How is that measured? Then is it an emergent property of intelligence? But wait, what is intelligence? Is that measurable?... Round and round we go, consciously wasting brain cycles.

I find the whole topic the modern-day equivalent of counting angels on pins. It is sophistry, but so deeply ingrained in our culture that we all seem to accept it as real. It is a hang-over of the concept of the soul - an indefinable quality that set humans apart. The trouble is there is no evidence for it; it has to be taken on faith.

avastmick··on China just blocked its last major foreign search engine
This may indicate a technical issue as cn.bing.com was down earlier too. I'm also in Shanghai. Normally, bing.com resolves to cn.bing.com when there is no VPN, in my experience
avastmick··on Concept design for a post-LHC future circular collider at CERN
Wow, just wow. I'm so glad this popped up today. When I first read the transcript I thought it _was_ a play it sounds so articulate, subtle and informed.

The military line shouldn't be taken out of context - Wilson was saying sorry as I assume including applicability would have made Pastore's job easier when taking it to the House.

Doing things because you can and because you have the imagination to see a positive outcome. The Chairman's comments are gold.

Thanks so much for sharing this!

avastmick··on 'Coerced into tipping'? How apps are changing the culture of tipping in SF
I live in either NZ, the UK or China, depending on work. None of these have a tipping culture. It's the cultural and psychological aspects that are fascinating, particularly the comments that list proof that in the US, if outlets show real prices, i.e. those that the customer will actually pay, including tax and gratuities, people go elsewhere, to outlets that give a false sense of economy.

Personally, I've found that when in the US I felt the food to be cheap, but when I pay the bill, the actual cost to be largely equivalent to other western countries. But, I still harbour the irrational feeling that the US is cheaper, even though the receipts I submit don't reflect this "feeling".

Tipping (and non listed taxes) is the 99c cost point writ large. To me it seems, all other considerations (discomfort, worker's rights, fairness, etc.) are overwhelmed by the lower price ticket.

Thoughts?

avastmick··on Protocol for Asynchronous, Reliable, Secure and Efficient Consensus [pdf]
I always felt that blockchain is a precursor technology like "Web 2.0", which laid the technical foundations (of Web APIs and micro-services) that enabled the explosion of mobile apps that followed.

If smarter people than me can mathematically verify the PARSEC algorithm as valid, it may lead the way for a radical change to the way information is propagated, secured and validated.

avastmick··on IBM bans USB, SD cards, flash drives and portable devices from every office
Sorry, this is not true.

I live and work in China and move far than that a year. Also the NZ / Australian property markets are both in a bubble caused by Chinese cash investment by wealthy individuals, 100k CNY won't buy anything.

100k CNY is only 15k USD.

avastmick··on Ask HN: Has anybody successfully changed their career to become a writer?
I tried, but failed in the career shift. I found myself more draw to the tools than the writing. The problems of the extant tools were too distracting and I felt I was more drawn to solving those problems than the many my writing threw up. Once a code geek, always one, I guess. But, if you're keen give it a go, but it will be unlikely to support you unless you are exceptionally lucky.
avastmick··on What happens when patients find out how good their doctors are? (2004)
The depth of this article allows thinking beyond the medical domain. Warren Warwick's success because of 'a capacity to learn and adapt—and to do so faster than everyone else.' To do so, there needs to be a fierce consistency of approach to enable easy measurement, yet at the edge a wild experimentalism to ensure improvement.

Fascinating. Continuous improvement in action.

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