585 karma · joined August 3, 2022
Hard disagree. 1. "Capacities are growing linearly while compute costs are on a geometric curve" is the very definition of scaling. GPT4.5 continuing this trend is the opposite of stalling: it's the proof that scaling continues to work 2. "OpenAI can't deploy this giant model with a remotely affordable pricing" WTF? Gpt-4.5 has the same price per token than GPT-4 at release. It seems high compared to other models, but is still dirt cheap compared to human labor. And this model's increased quality means it is the only viable option for some tasks. I have needed proofreading for my book: o1 or o3-mini were not up to the task, but gpt-4.5 really helps. GPT-4.5 is also a leap forward on agentic capabilities. So of course I'll pay for this, it saves me hours by enabling new use-cases
Do you have any data to support 1. That grok is not more intelligent than previous models (you gave one anecdotal datapoint), and 2. That it was trained on more data than other models like o1 and Claude-3.5 Sonnet?
All datapoints I have support the opposite: scaling actually increases intelligence of models. (agreed, calling this "intelligence" might be a stretch, but alternative definitions like "scope, maybe, or flexibility, or coverage, or something" seem to me like beating around the bush to avoid saying that machines have intelligence)
Check out the technical report of Llama 3 for instance, with nice figures on how scaling up model training does increase performance on intelligence tests (might as well call that intelligence): https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.21783
Do not conflate "being efficient" that I was suggesting, and "being mean" that I never suggested. I don't think that social security is a bad concept. And anyway we'll probably all need UBI when AIs are more efficient than us at everything. Btw, conflating these two concepts of "efficient" and "mean" is one of the roots of Europe's fall.
> You can make your own module and show how efficient it is before deprecating the old one.
Are you suggesting doing A/B testing with laws? Maybe you were trying again to "put this in [my] language", but your proposal sounds delusional. A country's not a product, you can't have two parallel versions.
See Europe's fossilization, accelerated by the fact that we have put an administration of bureaucrats over countries to add one layer of rules. I'd love a DOGE in Eurppe because our administrations can only be cut brutally, like the Gordian knot. That may destroy some good things, but I'll happily pay that to get rid of the bad things.
Few points:
- open Deep Research is not a production app, but it could easily be productionized (would need to be faster + good UX).
- As the GAIA score of 55% (not 54%, that would be lame) says, it's not far from the Deep Research score of 67%. It's also not there yet: I think the main point of progress is to improve web browsing. We're working on integrating vision models (for now we've used a text browser developed by the Microsofit autogen team, congrats to them) because it's probably the best way to really interact with webpages.
- Open Deep Research is built on smolagents, a library that we're building, for which the core is having agents that write their actions (tool calls) in code snippets instead of the unpractical JSON blobs + parsing that everyone incl OpenAI and Anthropic use for their agentic/tool-calling APIs. Don't hesitate to go try out the lib and drop issues/PRs!
- smolagents does code execution, which means "danger for your machine" if ran locally. We've railguardeed that a bit with our custom python interpreter, but it will never be 100% safe, so we're enabling remote execution with E2B and soon Docker.
What makes you think that there would be only spirit/soul left in Heaven?
The idea is that people would be there in a "glorified body", a body without decay, suffering, or pain. But a real body!
Their most ancient existence is as stone carries, the storage of bones only started late, in the XVIIIth century.
They never really held big significance for Parisians.
Source: https://fr.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carri%C3%A8res_souterraines_...
This is a 1000 years old church that has hosted France's history, not a company office in Manhattan.
This article criticizes Musk for spreading misinformation that goes against scientific views, in particular on climate change.
DISCLAIMER: I've worked 2 years on climate insurance, as a data scientist tasked with measuring the risks of extreme weather events and how they change with global warming. I've worked on Hurricanes (general name is Tropical Cyclones), Frost, and River flooding.
What are the damning examples of Musks's misinformation cited in the article?
The worst I can find (except for having a jet, which all billionaires do) is under the title "Downplaying the climate emergency", where the article quotes a Guardian article. In there, the most damning thing Musk has said is: "Musk has praised Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur and GOP presidential hopeful, as “a very promising candidate” despite Ramaswamy calling the climate change agenda a hoax. Musk responded to Ramaswamy on X about the climate crisis saying: “It is possibly overstated in the short term, but we should be concerned about it long term.”"
Does that warrant a witch hunt? Is it even false?
Many media like the Guardian (cited many times in her article) like to announce short-term climatic Ragnarok, for instance increased risk of hurricanes[0].
And they cite short-term "limits" like reaching the threshold of 1.5°C additional average global temperature compared to pre-industrial era.
But these media mix up all climate risks in their Ragnarok, which makes their prophecies invalid. For instance on hurricanes: the risk of hurricanes could be REDUCED because of global warming [2] (frequency goes down, intensity goes slightly up).
In fact, as we're nearing the 1.5°C "limit" [1], most of the doom warnings seem to have been invalid, except for precise heat-related risks like droughts and wildfires.
At least until 2024, Musk has been less wrong than the Guardian cited so often by this article. So should we remove this scientist from the Royal Society because she spreads misinformation? Oh well, it's already done.
My point is PLEASE ONLY TRY TO CANCEL PEOPLE UNDER GOOD REASONS, because the perception by Republicans/Right-wingers that Democrats/Ecologists are hysteric is what truly undermines the West's response to climate change.
[0]: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-w... [1]: https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/global-temperature-likely-... [2]: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01388-4
VCs are not investing in the current LLM-based systems to improve X, they're investing in a future where LLM based systems will be 100x more performant.
Writing is complex, LLMs once had subhuman performance, and yet. Digital art. Music (see suno.AI) There is a pattern here.