625 karma · joined June 23, 2014
But at scale. Yegge gets close to it in this blog (which actually made me lol, good to see that he is back on form), but shies away from it.
If AI is producing a real productivity boom then we should be seeing a flood of high-quality non-AI related software. If building and shipping software is now easier and faster then all of the software that we have that doesn't quite work right should be displaced by high quality successors. It should be happening right now.
So where is it? Why is all this velocity going into tooling around AI instead? Face it, an entire industry has fallen into the trap of building the automation instead of the product they were trying to automate the production of.
Where is the new high quality C compiler that actually compiles the linux kernel to a measurably higher quality than gcc? If AI is really increasing productivity shouldn't we have that instead of a press-oriented hype flop?
> The operating system for the next generation of gamers
(apart from the ones in the firmware, and the hardware glitches...)
I am shocked!
In the Monty Hall problem there is added information in the second round from the informed choice (removing the empty box).
In this problem we don't have the same two-stage process with new information. If the previous process was fair then we know the remaining candidate was better than the eliminated male (and female) candidates. We also know the remaining female candidate was better than the eliminated male (and female) candidates.
So the size of the initial pools does not tell us anything about the relative result of evaluating these two candidates. Most people would choose the candidate from the smaller pool though, using an analogue of the Gambler's Fallacy.
I wonder about the accuracy of the rest of the article.
"I noticed the following facts about people who work with the door open or the door closed. I notice that if you have the door to your office closed, you get more work done today and tomorrow, and you are more productive than most. But 10 years later somehow you don't know quite know what problems are worth working on; all the hard work you do is sort of tangential in importance. He who works with the door open gets all kinds of interruptions, but he also occasionally gets clues as to what the world is and what might be important."
Each of those little interruptions is a clue about the wider state of the world (codebase / APIs etc). AI offers a shortcut, but it does not provide the same mental world-building.
Or to phrase it another way, there must examples of the technique that you want to "generate" in the training set otherwise the horrifically overfitted model cannot work.
Probably a little bit too cynical but this is my experience asking LLMs "unusual" questions.