alexandercrohde

>>> To replace out MediaWiki with a Java-based alternative (XWiki) ended up taking a total fo 24 dev-years over 4+ calendar years for the team

He can call himself 1x, but if he can stop just 1 colossal failure like that he can easily become 10x.

Meh, give us data or nothing. The secondhand (hearsay) of an anonymous internet identity is inadmissable in the court of my opinion.

Uh great, then he should cite his own test's accuracy rates and the other tests' accuracy rates and let the data bear that out.

Conveniently, he refuses to say how accurate his company's own tests are...

A hundred times better than teenagers smoking.

Deleting email messages is 100% a thing. I saw it happen myself (and confirmed with coworkers) at one unicorn I worked at.

Which is why employees are disincentivized from trusting those managers.

Meh, it's been my experience that those charts are borderline worthless. The truth is promotions are probably only fractionally about performance. A lot of it is budget, creating pr/"buzz" [even if it's proportional to impact], did you happen to be on a revenue-generating team, is there any political risk to promoting you (e.g. would you say the type of things I'm saying right now?).

Maybe google or something is different (and I doubt it), but that's less than 1% of engineers.

This will be a boon for their competitors

Not to be a buzzkill, but I'd like the exact opposite. An operating system with no asm, no C. Processors are over 1,000x what they were when I was young, I wish I could trade some of that 1000x for fewer security holes.

Uh great... yeah just walk right into the CEO's office and tell them what's wrong... 0% chance of that coming back to affect your career....

Maybe not surprised, but morally outraged certainly

I think people are outraged not because it's illegal, but because it's unconscionable. I think the general understanding is people shouldn't have outside-work activities be held against them, maybe it's time for the law to catch up.

It's pretty easy to come up with a lot of absurd and "legal" at-will policies (e.g. we'll fire anybody who watches porn)

I think it's fear mongering because it makes people worry whether grocery stores will be able to stay open. As somebody who lives in NYC, I can tell you right now, that if they didn't, it would cause a panic (right now my local grocer won't let people in without masks).

If a panic happened, this could lead people to things like looting. I think looting would be incredibly dangerous, more dangerous than the virus itself. Thus I find it borderline irresponsible to "stoke the fire" by writing an article like this without properly putting necessary disclaimers.

Well, these store have to stay open, no matter what. So I guess there's nothing to be done, other than have low-risk populations ready to fill these roles.

Seems a little bit scare-mongery to me.

How is you calling that guys numerical point worthless any different than if you said "Those grocery store workers aren't professionals, they don't know the odds, their opinion is meaningless" ?

What? So only people who bag groceries are allowed to double-check the math?

Seems fine. I've been using Skitch for a while, which seems to have all this and more (except gifs). Super easy to drop annotated screenshots straight into slack.

https://evernote.com/products/skitch

Well, I wonder how we get that information out there. Maybe you should make a youtube video for other doctors, and show them 20 example X-rays, and indicate why they are or aren't covid.

Since this isn't double-blind, I wonder if there's reason to upvote it to the top of HN now versus after the research progresses a little more.

Sometimes early signal, even if inaccurate, is very valuable (e.g. bitcoin). With alleged medical advances, I almost never find that to be the case (I can't recall the number of times I've read about cancer being beaten here).

I think the distinction between Kayfabe and propaganda is that the audience knows and chooses to suspend disbelief of Kayfabe because it's engaging to them.

I like this article because I think Kayfabe is a much better explanation of certain societal tribes' mock battles, than a lack of intellect. I think propaganda is a poor theory for widespread misinformation, because if it were simply a lack of information, then giving correct information to the uninformed (e.g. wikipedia) would immediately rectify the problem.

Maybe you mean this as a joke but it absolutely was. At one point Joe mentions he and Carole made a lot of money off each other. He ran a whole internet show on the premise of vilifying her, and her whole "Cat Rescue" zoo couldn't exist without the likes of him.

They both denounce each-other but depend on each-other. Though I suppose Kayfabe would maybe imply some mutual understanding of this interdependence and some agreed-upon boundaries.

That's one theory, but the evidence is mixed. For example, I believe in cruise ships, where everybody was tested the CFR was ~ 3%. However maybe the age distribution was older.

There are a lot of factors, some cause underestimating of cfr (he died of pneumonia, didn't have a test to spare, cause of death pneumonia).

Social distancing will save at most 1million lives (mostly 60-is 70 year olds, who had 10 years left anyways) in America.

6 months of quarantine in the US would cost 2 millions lifetimes of going outside. Full lifetimes, that is, not 10-year-lifetimes.

This is aside from all the economic damage. The cure is worse than the disease.

Hate to break it to you, but hospitals are going to be overrun either way. 70-year-olds outnumber ICU beds 1,000 to one in many counties, some counties have no ICUs, some counties have no hospitals! [1]

Because hospitals will be overwhelmed by a factor of 10 or so, social-distancing to slow things down by 50% is not going to change that.

The numbers paint a pretty clear picture, for those who bother to look at them.

1. https://khn.org/news/as-coronavirus-spreads-widely-millions-...

I don't know where these numbers come from. But given a the current 1.1% case-fatality-rate in America (even before hospitals are overwhelmed) and that more than half of the population is estimated to get it, I don't see how it'd be less than 1% * .5 * 350million = 1.75 million people, with or without lockdown.

I suspect politicians are trying to "ease into" the honest numbers, because I guess "a million" sounds like a lot to people.

It's hard to say anything with certainty, but I personally can't find any math that explains how social distancing can reduce that by more than 10%, short of a cure or vaccine being developed within 60 days.

Plasma would be the best hope of this.

Yeah. The more I learn, the more confident I am that nobody has a real plan, and it's just a fiesta of acronyms and agencies who are only pseudo-educated (e.g. couldn't recite essential statistics about mortality rate once one a ventilator off the top of their head) on the topic.

It's hard to say though, how much of it is raw political ignorance versus hiding bad news.

He said that for the UK apparently, here https://reason.com/2020/03/27/no-british-epidemiologist-neil...

I didn't realize that. Thanks.

Author's character aside, the math still seems right to me.

But I'm receptive to any published journal articles that explain how 350m people with a 1%~ fatality rate leads to less than 1m deaths.

Well, one way to do the math is say, a 6 month shutdown is losing half-a-year for * 300m people. So it costs 150million years of dating, going to the park, the beach, etc.

So if the average lifespan is 75 years, a 6 month shutdown could be viewed as costing 2million lifespans of being outside.

Now this is rough, because being dead versus quarantined isn't the same. On the other hand, the people dying are predominantly at end-of-life, so the figure might really want to multiply by 10 to get a better estimate (because most of the dying people will have had < 10 years left anyways).

And that's entirely aside from the economic consequences.

Virus is going to kill 1m in the US no matter what, even if every single person had a dedicated ICU [1]. People who can't emotionally accept that shouldn't partake in the discussion, because that's table-stakes.

[1]. https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/77482/5/Impe...