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aeternum

5,656 karma · joined August 22, 2019

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aeternum··on Orbital Data Centers: Why the Hype Outpaces Reality
What law of physics do orbital data centers violate? You must have learned some strange physics.
aeternum··on Orbital Data Centers: Why the Hype Outpaces Reality
Good thing Elon's companies have a history of moving engineering impossibilities from impossible to slightly late.

Remember when globally competitive electric cars, re-usable boosters, catching a rocket with chopsticks, playing a fps game via a brain implant, and maintaining a satellite constellation at 480km LEO were also impossible?

aeternum··on The labor share of income in the US is at its lowest post-war level
>Certainly, you should attribute a significant proportion to the people who installed the automated system and even more to those who designed it.

Indeed, but what happens if/when they choose to sell the system and someone else buys it? Now the owner is who is generating the value. Even if he hires some maintenance worker to come by once and awhile and check up on it, it is the system (aka the capital), not the worker that is generating the vast majority of the value.

aeternum··on The labor share of income in the US is at its lowest post-war level
That is true but likely only temporarily. Why is the single worker even needed?

We tend to have a pretty human-centric worldview so if there's a single human working to keep a hotel running, our default is to attribute all the generated value to them when it really isn't the case. You can imagine that hotel at some point in the near future goes from requiring 1 worker to keep it running to zero.

aeternum··on The labor share of income in the US is at its lowest post-war level
Marx fails to imagine a world in which labor actually has little to no value.

His worldview is primarily that capitalists 'steal' the valuable labor. However it doesn't seem that that is actually the world we are in. Instead the intrinsic value of human labor seems to be slowly trending towards zero.

And it kind of makes sense, same has happened with oxen labor, horse labor, etc.

aeternum··on The Humbling of the Once Almighty Dollar
Perhaps it is the use of the dollar as an instrument of offensive diplomacy that is weakening it.

Economic sanctions used to be rare, between 2000 and 2021 they grew by 1000% and the list is something like 17,000 entities long.

Is USD still a currency or is it now more like Robux: Swiftly confiscated if you violate the TOS?

aeternum··on [dead]
Tabloids do not belong here
aeternum··on Waymo Premier
All hail the exemplary citizen!

(does that satisfy you sir?)

aeternum··on AI profitability is mathematically impossible
These already exist and there are very few use-cases because typically waiting a little longer for a significantly better answer is preferable.
aeternum··on S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
No because profitability is only required to enter not to stay.
aeternum··on I rode Elon Musk's Vegas Loop, the worst transit system on Earth
This is mostly due to human attention and how the human vision system works.
aeternum··on SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P
Index investors often believe that indexes work well because they average everything out.

The reality is something like 96% of public companies underperform treasuries.

ref: https://paretoinvestor.substack.com/p/why-96-of-stocks-are-d...

aeternum··on SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P
Yes, I think given that misinfo this was probably the right decision by S&P, everyone would be saying I told you so and screaming about providing exit liquidity.

My prediction is that this will overall end up costing index holders money though. They will ultimately get a worse entry price for SpaceX and the other mega IPOs. Only time will tell.

aeternum··on I'm skeptical about efforts to revolutionize schooling
>Learning is biologically required to be hard.

I think we all know this to not be true. We've all had a super engaging teacher or task in which we learned quickly and efficiently without it feeling hard. I've learned far more through natural interest or through pursuing a goal than I have forcing myself to engage with a subject.

>Any for-profit initiative (ed-tech) will not be incentivized to improve learning outcomes. There's no money in it.

This also seems obviously false. Suppose some company did figure out a way to make learning twice as fast/efficient and proved it with data, there would be tons of money in it. Duolingo is just one example that there is plenty of money to be had even with dubious claims and a product that doesn't actually work that well. The issue seems to be that no company has figured out how to make arbitrary knowledge interesting enough to a wide enough variety of people.

If you take the extreme, people would pay huge amounts of money for The Matrix download to your brain type learning. The problem isn't no money in it, the problem is no solution thus far.

aeternum··on American capitalism has taken an apocalyptic turn
>whether you get nuked or not doesn't change an investors strategy

I'm not sure about that, I think it would make me favor investments in science and technology, or if college age I would likely choose engineering over say art. The "Sputnik Shock" did have a cultural effect not to mention more direct methods like the National Defense Education Act.

aeternum··on American capitalism has taken an apocalyptic turn
I thought the Economist used to have much higher quality articles. Where is the historical analysis?

Is it more apocalyptic now than during the cold war when kids hid under their desks? Did America really win the space race because of a presidential speech or was it the apocalyptic threat that if we lose, we will all live under communist rule? Would American manufacturing have ever caught up to Germany if it weren't for the existential threat of the world wars?

Perhaps American capitalism has always thrived on fear of the apocalypse.

aeternum··on I rode Elon Musk's Vegas Loop, the worst transit system on Earth
They would generally be single lane tunnels so no merge issues. Breakdowns would be rare since these are well-maintained but if one did occur, the fleet would be programmed so the car behind simply pushes the AV through to the next exit.

They could terminate to converted underground parking garages (cities already have quite a few) and with AVs the need for personal parking would be greatly reduced. People would have plenty of time to get in and out without blocking the tunnel.

It's actually insane that most trains stations block the track, how quickly would you fire the dev that insisted on holding a perf critical mutex while waiting on user input?

Building the tunnels does need to be automated but that's exactly what Boring company is doing.

Ultimately human driving will be banned within cities. It's just far too dangerous. It's almost as deadly as smoking especially in cities and the risk asymmetry is extreme: pedestrians and those around the car are in far more danger than the driver.

aeternum··on I rode Elon Musk's Vegas Loop, the worst transit system on Earth
1) The "attach" would likely be virtual, just meaning a tight following distance. You could have optional shock absorbers if you're really worried about collisions in the tunnels. Most likely not needed though.

2) Yes I'm surprised also. Any theories on why? Too much of an edge case for tesla's focus?

3) I think yes but very few building have heliports, far more have parking garages that could double as tunnel ingress/egress. I think both will be used but tunnels support higher density and have less dependence on weather.

aeternum··on I rode Elon Musk's Vegas Loop, the worst transit system on Earth
Imagine if the subway car you were riding in could detach from the train, take an exit tunnel to the surface streets then drop you off within a block from your house.

AVs in tunnels allow for a wide range of density from 2-seater to high density bus/train-car like vehicles that can convoy through tunnels but still do point-to-point and on-demand.

The main challenge is convincing the train-obsessed that 3d travel is better than 1d travel.

aeternum··on GTA 6 Developers Unionize
Lol, GTA 6 is destined to be the next Duke Nukem 2
aeternum··on Private equity bought America's essential services
And which countries does this work for? They all still somehow still manage to have palaces.

There's also a strong argument that charity transfers to the poor does far more harm than good. How do you price a field worth of wheat, a mill, or even a local grocery when an airdrop of processed flour and food rations can arrive at any moment with no warning? And how do you get the capital to start one of those when it's illegal to get a loan?

Of course there are solutions if you have enough tenacity, but the overall result is far fewer businesses started because the friction is just so much higher.

aeternum··on I'm Tired of Talking to AI
It's not that sad, it'll probably go away. Anyone remember when Google first got popular and for like 5-10 years after everyone did the same with that, there was even the "let me google that for you" meme + site.

It was forgotten. Time heals all wounds.

aeternum··on Is "colorectal cancer" rising in "young people"?
It depends, if you want the best possible colonoscopy quality, do the liquid/"sludge" prep, the general consensus is it cleans you out the best and gives the best possible view during the procedure. However that's only true if you actually do it properly and drink all the liquid.

A decent number of patients can't/don't get through all the liquid in which case the pills are far better.

aeternum··on IBM Spins Off the First Pure-Play Quantum Chip Foundry
As the joke goes, have either of them factored 35 yet?
aeternum··on A fundamental principle of aeronautical engineering has been overturned
I wonder how quickly airlines will adopt sanded/rough wings. It's also interesting that the efficiency of winglets were known for quite awhile but only somewhat recently have nearly all airliners adopted them.
aeternum··on The four-day workweek in Australia: insights from early adopters of 100:80:100
I did read it, thus my comment. Did you actually read the methods? This is what you're defending:

"Methods This study took a qualitative approach, using semi-structured interviews with n=15 industry leaders" .. "Participants were identified via media reports " .. "A total of n=15 key informants participated in this study" .. "Recent research into appropriate sample sizes for qualitative research found saturation typically occurs between 9 and 17 interviews and the researchers agreed that no fresh insights or themes arose after the twelfth interview in this study (Hennink & Kaiser, 2022)"

The interviews contain invaluable insights such as: “adopting the 4DWW takes work” “Productivity up, waste removed” “Management -led/employee -driven,” “Train for leisure,”

I stand by my statement.

aeternum··on The four-day workweek in Australia: insights from early adopters of 100:80:100
I'm the one that said usually, Feynman didn't have that cop-out and he was specifically talking about social science:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWr39Q9vBgo

Worth watching the clip so you can hear the argument directly. IMO his point is that peer review is not what makes something science. Nor are studies, publishing papers nor p-values, even gathering and reproducing data is not what makes science science.

aeternum··on The four-day workweek in Australia: insights from early adopters of 100:80:100
Papers like this should be called opinion surveys.

Calling it a study is a disservice to science. As Feynman said, anything where they have to put science as a suffix is usually not science.

aeternum··on SpaceX launches Starship v3 rocket
They already demonstrated that entire tiles can be removed without wrecking the spacecraft.

The quarter thing may have been true for the space shuttle, that doesn't make it true in general.

aeternum··on Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI
This could be true if labor were ever the bottleneck in construction projects.

It almost never is.

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