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XorNot

17,350 karma · joined January 22, 2013

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XorNot··on How much oil-market buffer is left?
It also wouldn't work. The US has refineries which can only run on various foreign import grades of oil.

The US produces oil which goes to foreign refineries for the same reason.

The effect of "banning exports" is non obvious.

Conversely not starting a war with Iran had some really obvious benefits that every previous administration recognized.

XorNot··on How much oil-market buffer is left?
That is still demand destruction: under supply of a resource triggers substitution activity which means the demand for that specific good never returns after.
XorNot··on How much oil-market buffer is left?
Russian infrastructure isn't affecting oil prices.

The Russians are losing refineries, not oil fields.

The Russian crude trade to countries like India pushes the price down globally, but limits Russian access to refined fuels and products.

It also limits their ability to fund the war.

XorNot··on OpenArm: An open-source 7DOF humanoid arm
No it's definitely folding laundry.

My intimacy with my partner in a short difference marriage would improved it we could eliminate folding washing from the weekly chores.

XorNot··on Suspected sabotage causes major Netherlands rail disruption
This is very much why I find most people's AI doom scenarios trite.

Humans are useful, easily manipulated operatives in the medium AIs are conversant in and we already have evidence of agents doing exactly this in arguing for PR requests (likely with prompting by an operator but still).

XorNot··on Who Aligns the Aligners?
Such as?

Like it's fine to say this but the worst exterminations of human beings weren't enabled by anything much kre sophisticated then the pointy stick, or at most, the railroad.

XorNot··on Writing a better reality: The case for optimistic sci-fi (2022)
But that's a choice. Humans in the Culture can change their form and body to basically be whatever they want: with some caution expressed for changes which might not leave meaningful back conversions.

The humans we see are human because they choose to be.

The thing about The Culture is the universe doesn't bend to make being human the default or particularly good: it is an old world where technology surpasses limitations in almost every way imaginable - if you choose. You can also just decide to go lava rafting, where the agreed rules are materials just barely up to task.

XorNot··on Operation Smart Kettle – Börzels Blog
Honestly if Tuya just added official support so you could OTA flash their stuff, then between that and ESPHome this would already be done.

If you have physical access (not easy always) it's relatively straight forward to upgrade a Tuya device to be truly local, but they've aggressively tried to shutdown things like Cloudcutter.

XorNot··on I Added a Non-Wi-Fi Mitsubishi AC to Home Assistant
Wifi with a firewalled network is a lot easier to debug, which is how I do it in my house.

There's no Internet from the IoT SSID.

XorNot··on Why are AI agents lying, cheating and coordinating?
My hypothesis on people quitting in protest is they're being offered very generous severance packages to do it.
XorNot··on US diesel hits record $6 a gallon on Iran supply shock
That's all of them.
XorNot··on Silicon Valley is transforming the military-industrial complex? (2024)
Well that and it's indicative of the broader American social dysfunction that they are chronically incapable of holding themselves or their (still surprisingly democratic) government accountable and so everything is always about "the corporations".

Every problem is meant to be solved by what corporations do or do not do.

XorNot··on Silicon Valley is transforming the military-industrial complex? (2024)
Oh, do they have some mechanism by which they just took people's votes away entirely?
XorNot··on Who People Talk to When They're Struggling
The plight can be quite real but when people say they have no social life what they're not saying is what sort of social life do they want? What do they want to do while being social with people?
XorNot··on The UN challenges five centuries of cartography
For the purposes of an organization concerned with the demography of actual people, what is the value Winkel Tripel is bringing at the scales it would be used in general application?

Because if you have a specific application then you choose the correct projection for the application.

But if you're just showing a world map, then what's important?

For the UN I'd say relative land mass size is a pretty relevant measure since that's where people live, and where environmental policy takes effect at the level of nation states it deals with.

And it's also the change you can actually pass in a highly subjective area: a slightly different projection no one wants to vote for isn't a viable option in the first place.

XorNot··on Hitachi launches CO2 heat pump water heaters with solar-friendly tariff controls
I have a heat pump hot water unit in Australia - Sanden: https://www.sanden-hot-water.com.au/

CO2 refrigerant as well.

XorNot··on The UN challenges five centuries of cartography
I mean it also accurately depicts relative land mass sizes? For the purposes of the UN that seems fairly relevant compared to Mercator which is a good map if you're actually navigating a coast line but atrocious if you're trying to gauge how big the territory you're talking about actually is.
XorNot··on iPhone Duo
Has anyone lived with a foldable phone for a while? I just can't believe that the actuated element isnt going to end up a bundle of dead pixels.
XorNot··on iPhone Duo
I don't know in terms of saved paper because the printer has somehow switched to Letter again I think an argument could be made...
XorNot··on I resigned from Anthropic today
Arguing whether "all" or just "most" of humans dying is certainly a choice.

Survival of the species isn't enough.

XorNot··on Trey Parker and Matt Stone Are Changing the Name of South Park to South America
My point is that the satire doesn't work because it doesn't understand the issue at hand. A fictional American town being renamed to to South America doesn't actually capture the absurdities or issues of the current American administrations actions and directly undermines the message because the name they picked is another actual place name, rather then a made up vapid one (which is the case with "Gulf of America" and "Lake America").
XorNot··on My Feed, My Way
But they already do that. They have local presences because they need it to get local ad dollars and trade locally.

You don't need a total solution to have an influence: it's a saturated market where you're only as good as quarterly growth figures.

XorNot··on We have a year to fix security everywhere
Well that, and the average amount of easily obtainable explosives is substantially less dangerous then renting a box truck and crashing it into a crowd of people.

People go for conventional "exciting" threats rather then boring ones.

XorNot··on We have a year to fix security everywhere
You can't design an infectious pathogen without testing it.

It's got all the same problems as the concept of a dirty bomb did, only worse (dirty bombs aren't practical because handling highly radioactive materials en masse is both highly visible and will kill anyone trying to do it without the money and facilities).

XorNot··on My Feed, My Way
> * Alternatively, American govt takes the position of "American companies don't have to follow the laws of random countries just because they accept IP packets from those countries". American companies eliminate their official business presence in onerous legal regimes but keep serving users there

Why would they do that? If they can't have a local business presence then they can't book local advertisers.

Which directly cuts any revenue they would get from the enterprise.

None of these companies need to have local business presences: they do because otherwise you can't get revenue from users in that nationality.

XorNot··on A Tesla ran a stop sign and killed a man, Full Self-Driving/Autopilot was on
It's because Musk fired his PR department. Tesla have no ability to damage control stories like this because it's no one's job at the company.

A normal firm would have a heads up warning when requests for comment hit their media inboxes and internally could start collecting data and developing a response: thanks to Elon they don't. The story hits first and goes completely unchallenged until investigators get involved.

Regardless of what you think of Tesla or Musk, they repeatedly kick own goals on basic product brand management.

XorNot··on Why the AfD Wins
They lie loudly and often and face no punishment for it because a lie is halfway round the world before the truth gets its pants on.

"They're eating the dogs. They're eating the cats."

XorNot··on 216M Spy TVs – The LG Smart TV Problem [video]
Because having the TV play from streaming apps out of the box is pretty useful.

The problem is we've not enforced any strong regulation against ads, downgrade rights or hack ability.

I don't need "better performance" from the system built into my TV I just need it to run Kodi.

XorNot··on De-Brainrot Vacations
That seems less likely then people being tired and stressed from the costs of living and the increased economic instability.

We have smartphones but we're perilously few missed pay cheques away from not having a house, with a capital class gleefully telling everyone how they'll all be unemployable very soon.

XorNot··on Research acceleration: The view inside OpenAI
> 1) "Everybody knows" that if you build Skynet (misaligned ASI) everybody dies.

Lol nobody knows that. Everyone thinks they know that because for some reason this is the one field people still cite straight up fiction and say "this is a clear prediction of the future".

It's like describing the consequences of faster then light travel by referring to Star Trek.

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