Throwawayaerlei

Meteor Lake/Intel 4 would then be six years late if the wccftech.com article's commentary on the two nodes was correct. Good to hear about the presentation material, thanks!

Intel has a decades long history of very poor top level engineering management. They got petrified about the issue of how much DRAM they'd be able to put in a system in the 1990 (remember Rambus RDRAM?), and among the consequences was a 1 million part recall of motherboards shipped to Dell just before they were going to be shipped to customers, plus another related one I can't remember the details of yet.

This speaks to the sorts of dysfunction you're speaking of; certainly someone at Intel realized these parts weren't going to work in the real world.

"[TSMC is] an important company that is gonna get their lunch eaten by the mainland."

How so? Not for the foreseeable future in bleeding and leading edge nodes, where the PRC is some unknown but very long distance away from making their own EUV machines.

An invasion of Taiwan just means an end to TSMC production there, a point its chairman Mark Liu made a few days ago in a CNN interview. That would have really bad effects on the PRC's narrow economy with its export focus.

"The management textbooks [at my business school] used to tell you that steady profits were the most important thing."

That's stark raving mad. It is for example one of the clearest signs someone is running a Ponzi scheme. Which would seem to transfer over to this not quite as dishonest domain.

Reverence for GE, a company doing technical things that started stack ranking and firing their employees.... Plus eventually got first their fingers and then last time I checked their whole body burned by going into financial businesses, very much not a core competence.

I think your citation is 9 years old. What I've always heard is what they called 10 nm was non-EUV. You are correct that what they called 7 nm was going to use EUV, pretty much had to, but 10 nm catastrophically failed and the company responded very poorly to that.

Not that long ago I remember reading, forget at what confidence level, that their old 7 mn was believed to have the potential to leapfrog their 10 nm and save the company, but others said they had some problematic things in common (not counting the very poorly run company!) that made that unlikely. In any event what was 7 nm did not ride to the company's rescue.

Did not read TFA and if it doesn't focus a lot on the 10 nm/Intel 7 botch it's not fine, but I've read TSMC's very roughly equivalent 7 nm node was also non-EUV but less aggressive than Intel's. And it succeeded unlike Intel, which then made it natural to start introducing in production EUV in their 7+ node. Here I suspect gaining real experience in chips delivered to customers trumps whatever volume you'll end up doing.

An exception to the trope doesn't "put it to rest," except of course for that exception.

For Intel the interim CFO made CEO was actually executing a strategy that might have worked. I was pretty sure Gelsinger would be a catastrophic mistake because he wasn't a fabrication guy (but maybe they couldn't hire one?) and I'm sad to see this playing out. His strategy depends on one difficult to impossible, and one impossible thing: regain the ability to move to new nodes on a very fast time scale and change the corporate culture to accommodate foundry customers without buying such a company.

By now without having heard of mass firings of incompetent managers but plenty of reports it's still a snake pit or clown show if you prefer, and the latest capex decrease of $4 billion says nothing good. Even if the latter is just that they can't buy the machines they need.

While I'm at it, how well is their 10 nm now Intel 7 node at shipping parts? That was when Intel's decades of bad top level technical management snared their crown jewel.

HN discussion on this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32291356

That was the Secret Service, not that I would expect the FBI to have been more aware.

> Managing low performers is a magnitude more work than solid performers; no manager would do this to themselves on purpose. It would be easier to cut their 2 least rockin' stars.

Then what do you do a year (and a half for Amazon) later for the next cycle?

One of the many problems with stack rank cull N% of your employees every year is that "every year" part. At whatever level it's mindlessly applied, if the company wants to keep it at the same head count you by definition have a steady churn of hires, which I'll grant you won't always be good, and fires.

Vehicle users don't give a damn about the price of crude oil except to the extent it makes the fuels they use like Diesel more expensive. Our biggest problem is refinery capacity, it's down 1 million barrels per day or 5% from before COVID which has now abated causing demand to go up. Distillate imports from Russia which were making up part of the gap have been embargoed because of the invasion. Worldwide refinery capacity is said to be down 3 million barrels per day.

Natural gas prices were getting bad due to bad policies in China, Europe and the US before the invasion, and CF Industries as one example shut down both of its nitrogen fixing plants in the U.K. last year (the government there arranged for one to reopen so the byproduct of CO2 would be available for other food industry uses).

For that matter, 10 years ago is a curious beginning point to choose because another anti-fossil fuel President was in office at the time. Rhetoric is not going to fill empty bellies in the coming months or make my breakfasts cheaper.

The plain Quaker oatmeal I buy in 42 oz canisters is 50% more expensive than it was 10 months ago. I can come up with more examples that have nothing to do with meat or animal protein if you'd like.

One thing you're ignoring is that even if you don't drive a car like myself as well, tangible stuff still has to be transported around. And for food, the war on fossil fuels is also a war on farms using Diesel powered equipment for which there is no replacement and nitrogen fertilizers made with natural gas. We've only just begun to see the effects of these two issues.

OK, there is one replacement for there and a lot more people in the world will be experiencing it: starvation.

Would be more accurate to say un-updated phones are unlocked doors you know are unlocked. Up to date? Slow update cycles measured in weeks suggest for some portion of some number of cycles they're also unlocked.

Worse is how some fraction of updates are very bad news, thus people who care about this delay until there's enough confirmation an update won't do something nasty to something they depend on, which can go all the way to basic phone and SMS usage.

For a few more details, US refinery capacity is down 5% or 1 million barrels per day from pre-COVID figures, so once the economy started unfreezing from that demand exceeded supply. Worldwide it's 3 million bpd. For the US, a significant part of the loss in distillate production was being made up by imports from Russia, which of course have been ended by sanctions.

Aside from undoing the sanctions, there's physically no way to fix this in the medium term aside from demand destruction from a recession or worse. In the medium to long term oil companies are not going to make major investments that will never be paid back because of anti-fossil fuel policies.

Perhaps worth noting poultry and especially chicken eggs are subject to truly transitory inflation due to the current avian flu outbreak: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932022_H5N8_outbrea... Have not checked up on it for a while, but in the US it hit laying hens much harder than any other poultry category.

You are of course generally correct, food inflation for what I buy is roaring and significantly above topline CPI.

"The reality is that the boosters only work for 3 months"

Nope, they make lasting, as far as we know permanent changes to your immune system as almost all vaccines do (TDaP to bacterial toxins an obvious exception).

You may be talking about how exposure to antigens creates an antibody fleet that wanes after a while, but only the insane recommend we try to maintain that vs. depend on memory B cells for antibodies and the equivalents for the other half of the adaptive immune system, the cellular one, for exposure later. We've never tried this tactic for a disease, although this is the first big, new one in the era of modern medicine (very possible the late 19th Century "Russian Flu" was caused by a now endemic "common cold" coronavirus, but nothing big since then until SARS, MERS and then COVID).

"and you don’t get a QR code if you don’t get your mandatory umpteenth booster just because you have a good immune system."

Where on earth do you live? Because this isn't what's happening anywhere in the US as far as I know, and I think I would have heard about localities trying to pull such stunts, especially after the cresting of the first wave of Omicron made all of this moot for the foreseeable future. If you're not here, then what I was talking about the FDA's authorizations and approvals for boost doses obviously wouldn't apply unless your country simply defers to them.

The rest shows you're simply not reading what I wrote, are unable to think about this monkeypox outbreak with its now primary human to human instead of rodent to human transmission mode (for the Western clade; not sure about the respective prevalence of transmission modes for the 10% lethal other clade) and apply lessons recently emphasized by our experience with COVID.

That's obviously not on the US agenda, we're not getting huge numbers of doses of either kind manufactured. We are getting more JYNNEOS doses, and distributing doses of I assume it, and again with the assumptions so it can be used in the normal method of ring fencing known cases.

"Endless boosters for the COVID-19 vaccines" is a blatant lie, there's no more than for many previous types of vaccines, a total of two for those with good immune systems. Look up the US at the CDC or archived at the WHO vaccine schedules for all countries if you doubt.

But we shouldn't treat this latest zoonotic jump to humans casually, the more people who get it, the more chances it has to adapt better to humans and perhaps become more lethal as the Alpha and then Delta variants of classic Wuhan became. We know from the worst and most common form of smallpox that Orthopoxes have the potential of a 30% Case Fatality Rate (CFR).

Pretty sure you can figure out why, but if you deny this line of vaccines that are the oldest in existence from variolae vaccinae, Jenner's Latin for "smallpox of the cow," you deny everything called a vaccine.

Given that the only new wrinkle on Orthopox vaccines is taking the old derived from cowpox virus and preventing it from reproducing which is not a new or likely to be difficult technique including in manufacturing, there's effectively nothing "new fangled" about them.

Nor should there be anything "eye wateringly expensive" about them except Bavarian Nordic's JYNNEOS perhaps having a monopoly on this new type for now (they do in the US, don't know about Europe). For the older type vaccine the US started making it again after 9/11 so reclimbing the learning curve was done long ago, there's 100 million doses in our stockpile.

The APC higher end "Smart-UPS" models might still be good, I've used them for a couple of decades without these sorts of problems, current 750 kVA one bought in 2017, just had to replace the battery at its prompting only a month ago or so (that's normal).

I can also attest their consumer level including the "Back-UPS" models are subpar. Had one bought by a parent arc inside when I was trying to diagnose what was wrong with it.

The problem with your thesis the people who own guns in this county are not the ones being made angry with these three decisions.

Your last sentence isn't supported by history: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_switch_in_time_that_saved_... Plus of course aligned with your first sentence FDR got reelected after that. Twice.

I rate these decisions as the first decisive break from what FDR wrought in the 1930s.

Appears to be mostly honest, for example does not count as "teens" those over 17, but it doesn't capture the by far highest fraction of defense gun uses, those in which the weapon is never fired (over 85%, maybe over 90%; as they say, they don't re). On the other hand:

"While CDC utilizes death certificates for gun deaths, they, and the FBI rely on a sampling of sources and extrapolate those numbers to provide aggregate totals that reflect the calculations within their methodologies."

Is I believe flatly false for the CDC, they tally what the death certificates say and report numbers down to single digit precision, which I wouldn't expect from extrapolations. While the CDC for example does make estimates for flu morbidity and mortality, this posture by the site allows them to avoid reporting the remarkable figures on steadily decreasing fatal gun accidents, now down to 486 as of 2019, from 1955 in 1980.

That's during a period when the total population of the US increased by about half, gun ownership became much more widespread due to the nationwide sweep of concealed carry laws to 43 states and 74% of the population, which includes the number of guns owner by the population over doubling. US gun culture is deadly serious, shall I say, about safety.

You are of course correct that no changes to the facts on the ground will happen quickly, and if you assume New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen does not get enforced, maybe not even in New York state but like MacDonald not outside of Illinois (Chicago used to have a similar ban on simple gun ownership) I'm not going to argue with you before we have evidence, very possibly years from now.

But in theory today's 7 modern slave states will be dragged kicking and screaming into the same sorts of polices that apply to the other 43 states in the nation. And I think this will be good, "'A house divided against itself cannot stand.' I believe this government cannot endure, permanently half slave and half free." (Lincoln, who implicitly launched the nation's second wave of gun control.)

Those two fit together very well, this isn't an either/or.

43 states with 74% of the nation's population having Shall Issue or better concealed carry regimes tells us the former option is not disastrous ("better": half the states not requiring a licence). Common sense tells us we won't be able to take guns away from criminals without currently unacceptable policies like Bloomberg's "Stop and Frisk" which some claim made NYC safer for a while.

A knowledge of history reminds us what happened the last time a deadly serious attempt to seize weaponry from the people was made, although hard experience tells us the only thing we learn from history is that we don't learn from history.

Common sense and history also tells us that whatever you think of the higher level merits, going "soft on crime" like the Warren Court was emblematic of and today BLM and "Defend the Police" means a surge in all crime and that breaking out "gun violence" makes no sense, an Asian in a city where effective defense is illegal murdered by a criminal doesn't care what instrument was used.

Note on the Warren Court period: there's an overlay of the demographic bulge of the Baby Boom that makes it impossible to say how much the policies adopted at the time made a fundamental difference. Although I'd say, not that I believe for a second it'll be addressed, removing force from the toolkit for the severely mentally ill had a significant impact (as in forcing people to take their meds, just these wonder drugs being available as my mother witnessed as a nurse in the 1950s does not mean they'll be rigorously taken).

"Though, for most homes, all a lock will do is keep out the people who don't want to be there in the first place. They can be good if you don't want someone snooping around without you noticing, but unless you go out of your way to get "not abysmally shitty locks," anyone with a tiny bit of skill and a bump key or bump gun can pop your doors anyway without you noticing."

For insurance purposes if nothing else, I want there to be solid evidence someone forced entry. So while my heavy duty strike plate and three hinges on the other side aren't anchored as well as I'd like and there's pretty easy access through a porch window, it's secured by an Abloy lock from https://securitysnobs.com/ so force will be required. And I can lend out a key with confidence that if I get it back, it won't have been copied in the meanwhile.

Works for me....

It's an opportunely for them to prove they're not bald faced liars, or living in a bubble if in the US, or if outside the US as so many are, to admit they in fact do not know anything above the slogan level of the topics under discussion. In the face of calumniates that reach the point of blood libel, "disagree" is far too weak a word.

There is no respectful way to point out someone is either so ignorant they have no place in a discussion or are arguing in bad faith. For the general stuff, they just have to learn a few things, like how many blacks legally own arms, and how the vast majority of gun owners are entirely cool with that. For the specialized knowledge I've been providing my own citation as well as in other discussions pointers to for example the absolutely essential to know about Anti-Federalists.

And I'll ask you this personally: do you really believe someone who claims to believe "the Satanic Church" is legally discriminated against is worth doing anything other than asking for citations, which he refuses to provide?

You make wild but unfortunately all too popular claims about the state of things at the time the Second Amendment and its prequels were written, going all the way to repeating a claim completely unsupported by history.

I suggested you read what these people actually said at the time to learn both the context and what they were intending to do, and you claim this is circular logic. Basically you're holding to your position that your side can just make shit up and no historical record is allowed to contradict it. Along with the usual insults and character assassination.

Guess what? We don't care what you say and will not take any of it into account in our future actions. There can be no peace between our peoples in our cold civil war, we'll have to see how it plays out.

The point is the Anti-Federalists said "No Bill of Rights, we won't observe the Constitution." Starting with New York I think this was made an explicit contingent condition of their ratification of the Constitution. Thus a compact, or covenant if you prefer.

Thus the Bill of Rights are special in a way no other Amendments are and cannot be abrogated without breaking the covenant that allowed the Constitution to become a thing in the first place.

"nearly no brand new weapon systems developed after year 2000 are bought by US allies"

Could you enumerate a few more of them than the obviously ludicrous M777? And does that count as "brand new"?? What about the Standard Missile 3 for example?