RA_Fisher

Depends if the job requires a lot of information and the person is excellent at what they do, bc then AI augments the worker more than substitutes them.

But for many people, yes, AI will mostly substitute their labor (and take their job, produce operating margin for the company).

Yes, for sure! I can think of a few ways.

100% (am a Bayesian statistician).

Isn’t it fascinating how it comes down to quality of judgement (and the descriptions thereof)?

We need an LMArena rated by experts.

Demand for AI is growing. It makes sense they’re trying to increase profits.

The issue in that case is that OLS is BLUE, the best linear unbiased estimator (best in the sense of minimum variance). This property is what makes OLS exceptional.

LLMs are okay at bisecting programs and identifying bugs in my experience. Sometimes they require guidance but often enough I can describe the symptom and they identify the code causing the issue (and recommend a fix). They’re fairly methodical, and often ask me to run diagnostic code (or do it themselves).

Thanks for sharing. It’s an alluring idea. I think you’d find the concept of statistical identifiability interesting.

As a reliability statistician (and web user!), I'd love to see Cloudflare investing in reliability statistics. :)

Excellent analysis. It’s like: servant of whom (themselves)?

They can get a better interest rate by using a specialty data center lender.

Smart is being able to produce knowledge quickly. I’m not sure how it could be denied that AIs are capable of producing knowledge quickly (obviously extremely quickly).

Yeah, I think a lot of people are very insecure. I’m genuinely sorry for them. I think the best thing to do is to derive utility from AI (to mitigate the costs).

They’re urgently being given agency by companies and people.

When models become sufficiently sophisticated, they practically become the phenomenon they’re modeling (by limit).

Sorry about the frustration. I agree they’re far from perfect (like us). They have habits, bc they model us.

> super specialist in a specific science

I’m a super specialist in statistics and GPT5 and Gemini know much more than me about the topic.

> If this is true then almost all of the jobs in the world would already be replaced by AI.

We have to account for human inertia. With us people, very little completely changes over night.

The paid models are already smarter than the vast majority of people.

R’s the best, bc it’s been a statistical analysis language from the beginning in 1974 (and was built and developed for the purpose of analysis / modeling). Also, the tidyverse is marvelous. It provides major productivity in organizing and augmenting the data. Then there’s ggplot, the undisputed best graphical visualization system + built-ins like barplot(), or plot().

But ultimately data analysis is going beyond Python and R into the realm of Stan and PyMC3, probabilistic programming languages. It’s because we want to do nested integrals and those software ecosystems provide the best way to do it (among other probabilistic programming languages). They allow us to understand complex situations and make good / valuable decisions.

Thank you. If it's for strategic autonomy, it's a bad trade. China needs domestic consumption like you mention, to absorb their supply / keep people working. Weakening USD would make Chinese exports more expensive, esp. if they convert it to Yuan. Meanwhile there's a property crisis and they can stimulate demand, including for strategic autonomy. One devious possibility is just giving it to Russia. Repatriating it as Yuan to stimulate doesn't make sense to me.

Will make it a lot cheaper and more accessible.

Good points, I was wrong. Thank you for your thoughtful reply. Given that, I’d expect USDYUAN to rise and further reduction in China’s GDP growth.

Exactly, I’d expect reducing its judgement has spillover effects, bc in a sense everything is political. ie- the idea of making it wise and unwise at the same time is incoherent. Bias comes at the expense of information.

China has no serious alternative to Treasuries (bc the closest competitors have lower yields). Also, other countries don’t place themselves in the same group as Russia, bc they violated international norms in an extreme manner.

Pozsar assigns far too much weight to Russia. It’s an economically small country. He should be focused a lot more on large American companies that carry actual heft.

There’s an average amount in the average cup of coffee.

Crickets, crickets, crickets ... :)

How is this not rediscovering statistics in unprincipled ways?

Thank you. :) I try to be careful with my claims, but when I find a big one I don’t shy away from it.

Yeah, reducing patriarchal arrogance is a major opportunity for improvement in our societies.

> On the fateful evening of November 10, 1975, McSorley reported he had never seen bigger seas in his life.[70] Paquette, captain of Wilfred Sykes, out in the same storm, said, "I'll tell anyone that it was a monster sea washing solid water over the deck of every vessel out there."[172] The USCG did not broadcast that all ships should seek safe anchorage until after 3:35 p.m. on November 10, many hours after the weather was upgraded from a gale to a storm.[55] McSorley was known as a "heavy weather captain"[173] who, according to George Burgner, "'beat hell' out of the Fitzgerald and 'very seldom ever hauled up for weather'".[140] Paquette held the opinion that negligence caused Edmund Fitzgerald to founder. He said, "in my opinion, all the subsequent events arose because (McSorley) kept pushing that ship and didn't have enough training in weather forecasting to use common sense and pick a route out of the worst of the wind and seas."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Edmund_Fitzgerald