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Paddywack

131 karma · joined September 12, 2013

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Paddywack··on The Four Desires Driving All Human Behavior
I once heard a quote by Anthony Robbins that there are 6 human needs that drive all behaviours: 1) certainty, 2) variety, 3) significance, 4) love and connection, 5) growth and 6) contribution Interesting to match to the 4 desires…
Paddywack··on South Africa issues world’s first patent listing AI as inventor
I feel an NFT debate coming on...
Paddywack··on Caltech professor helps solve Hindenburg disaster
What surprises me is why this "giant capacitor" phenomena did not occur elsewhere? Surely it docked previously in wet/damp conditions? Would the effect have been visible?

Or was it that there has never been any leak across the whole structure when docked in wet?

Paddywack··on Cyber Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facility
> It can destroy those sites easily enough if it needs to.

Is it as simple as that? (1) There is a continuum from dirty bombs to full Nukes that makes it a bit more messy. (2) Are Nukes not more "hideable" than this? For example, why has NK not had theirs bombed?

Paddywack··on Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility
Note the Dunning Kruger effect too!
Paddywack··on Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility
I would frame this on two axis: 1) outsider vs establishment 2) expert vs layperson

My opinion (see below for how I have defined these)

Outsider expert > establishment expert for public ally challenging and overturning norms

Any expert > layperson on the basic facts (ignoring statistical aberrations, of course)

“Outsider” being unconstrained by norms, not afraid to be cast out of a long established peer group

“Expert” has deep grasp of contemporary facts, second and third order consequences, puts in controls to remove cognitive biases, deep curiosity and healthy scepticism.

“Layperson” being someone who is probably intelligent, but grasps quickly onto unfamiliar concepts and data and makes heuristic calls based on limited data.

Paddywack··on McDonald’s Theory on How Best to Rescue Conversations
Wow. I read this at around 16 in 1983 and it made a huge impression on me then. It helped me really understand a few things about myself, as I always felt very socially out of it... Time to re-read!!
Paddywack··on Finding Startup Ideas and Building in Heavily-Regulated Spaces
I worked in mobile financial services in many countries.

Step 1: find the "Regulortunities"

Paddywack··on Intel's disruption is now complete
This thread reminds me of a lecturer I once met who had a theory based on a Machiavellian scale:

Entrepreneurs typically rate low. They rely on goodwill and reciprocity and great relationships to get things done as they have zero power. Early power comes from getting people to buy into your vision.

Corporate middle / senior managers rate higher because it it generally all about the power.

The interesting insight was that as an entrepreneur, when your business scales it is hard to retain the “low Machiavelly” approach. This is where a lot of the growing pains come from..

Edit: add link https://www.harleytherapy.co.uk/counselling/machiavellianism...

Paddywack··on Ask HN: How to Think Clearly?
> I write aphorisms (Nietzsche/Debord/Wittgenstein style)

I had a quick google on this and loved what I saw. But I couldn’t find anything on how to do this in a life/business sense.

Do you have any further tips or references on how to get better at structuring aphorisms?

Paddywack··on ElectricityMap – Live CO₂ emissions of electricity production and consumption
Also - home solar penetration in QLD is the highest in Australia. Is that not factored in to the equation? It doesn't look that way given 0% renewables shown.
Paddywack··on Ask HN: What is a business anti-pattern you've experienced at work?
"Use it or Lose it rule..." Spend your annual budget quickly by writing Purchase orders and Hiring people before you really know what the customer wants, because (1) When the company is looking for any spare budget as the financial year goes on, they will come and take it back from you (2) next year you may not get as much as you ask for

Result = overspend on the wrong things, managed by an inadequate team...

Paddywack··on MIT Ends Elsevier Negotiations
“There is nothing as necessary as the unnecessary” - from the movie Life is Beautiful.
Paddywack··on Caffeine: A vitamin-like nutrient, or adaptogen
Thanks! I also saw research where the optimum I think was drinking a cup of coffee in the early afternoon 30 minutes or so before a powernap. This beat (1) No coffee (2) straight coffee, no nap (3) nap, no coffee. I think it tested alertness in a driving game...
Paddywack··on Caffeine: A vitamin-like nutrient, or adaptogen
The Illy I have is below 0.1% Caffeine. I understand that normal coffee is at around 1.1 to 1.2%.
Paddywack··on Caffeine: A vitamin-like nutrient, or adaptogen
Lets talk about Decaffeinated coffee (asking for a friend...) (a) what benefits of coffee are not attributable to the caffeine, and (b) does the decaffeination process introduce any "side effects" in terms of harmful chemicals etc.

Seriously - I was drinking far too much coffee during lockdown and have switched 2 days ago to decaf. Too early to tell, but it feels like less triggering of hyperness...

Paddywack··on Proposed bounty for adding virtual camera / microphone support natively to OBS
I did this by mistake today using XSplit broadcaster + Xsplit VCam. I was playing around last night, and when I logged in this morning my work video conferences (Hangouts, Teams) all had an extra (virtual) cam with funny stuff going on in the background from the various features I had played with on Xsplit. Funny, but also frustrating until I switched it off in the background
Paddywack··on How to brainstorm great business ideas
I believe we make our own "luck", and I think the above quote is elegant!

WRT finding interesting ideas...

We used to talk about "increasing your surface area of luck" by meeting more people, getting exposed to more ideas/ opportunities etc.

If "Innovation happens at the intersection", then the more you come into contact with, the more your chances of finding an interesting (non-obvious) intersection between problem and solution, or two entirely different solution domains.

WRT executin: Gary player = "The more I practice the luckier I get"

Paddywack··on To get good, go after the metagame
Would I be correct in the following examples of Meta-game:

US Politics: - Stacking the supreme court Vs the court case strategy itself - Gerrymandering Vs Winning votes on merit - How you play the Caucus nominations Vs policy

Business (internal to large companies): - Gaming how funding flows vs Getting funding on merits

Business (external market) - Finding the grey area in policy (e.g. Uber/ Airbnb) - Lobbying

Would this be a correct understanding?

Paddywack··on SpaceX will now let you book a rocket launch online starting at $1M
What if SpaceX attached a small outward (away from earth) facing camera to each satellite? Could he not then create the largest array of orbiting “telescopes” for crowdsourced astronomy? They already have power and comms?
Paddywack··on Ask HN: I think I’ve burnt out. What should I do?
> Learn a new physically engaging skill. Most importantly, breathe.

I learned diving. It was great - taught me how to slow down entirely - you need to be 100% "immersed" in what you are doing - you have to breathe consistently and calmly

I loved it and it helped me heaps (in addition to doing all the other good things mentioned above!)

Paddywack··on “Sheep hacking” for Australia Day
This is a post from a friend and collaborator, Jack Hurley - probably one of the most Australian people who you have ever met. He lives on the borderline of the outback, his garage is filled with inventions and hacks, and he has recently opened up an outback entrepreneurial community - the Possumworks.

For those of you who don't know cricket - one of the ways to get your opponent out is to knock off the bails (two pieces of wood) from the three wooden "stumps" that they are balancing on.

Cue Jack's rendition of cricket in the outback!

And for those of you who don't know possums...

Paddywack··on Startups Are Making Real Estate Businesses More Efficient
I had a similar experience in Australia.

I took a prototype of a new app to one of Sydney's top real estate people.

He told me to sit down for a frank chat: "Good real estate agents focus their energy on selling houses. Great ones focus all of their energy on signing up new listings." Anything that is just there to benefit the client is really of no interest unless it achieves the latter.

Paddywack··on Karachi Vice
I forget which beach. I am glad that it is relatively safe now.

My first visit was 2006. On my return visits in 2008/9 I was accompanied by security who were probably over-protective as well.

As far as my wife is concerned, we travelled a lot throughout Pakistan - perhaps we were too cautious - although we did come up against a lot of anti-Indian sentiment. We found attitudes vary a lot from place to place about a lot of things, and this is no different.

I remember a well educated guy I knew telling me that he stopped going to the Wagga border post near Lahore for fear that he would throw a rock at the Indian border guards in the heat of the moment...

Paddywack··on Karachi Vice
I was fortunate to have spent a year or so in Pakistan helping launch Easypaisa - one of the biggest mobile banking deployments globally at the time.

I was told I was lucky to survive my first day without getting shot - I hung out on Karachi beach with the locals on National day which apparently made me a huge target for theft or kidnapping.

While I was in Islamabad the Taliban took over the military headquarters, the city was bombed a few times, and I spent one day in Karachi moving between safe houses as rival gangs took to shooting each other in the streets.

My wife is half Indian - we had to hide her identity when she visited (we went with "Persian").

The country was one of amazing contrasts. Kindness and terror, beauty (natural) and ugliness (man made).

I say "fortunate" because of the (a) new perspectives gained while being there; (b) having the pleasure of working with some of the brightest and hard-working people I have ever worked with; (c) being part of a project that has helped empower tens of millions of people.

The most beautiful place I ever went in over 40 countries I have visited was the foothills of K2 mountains, and watching a Polo match at the birth place of Polo in Baltistan (despite my Indian wife and I being surrounded by 15000 men chanting "Death to India" while war raged on in the SWAT valley a few hundred km's away).

A last footnote. Pakistan has been in the middle of so many proxy wars and have such a crazy history that most people I met have woven together the fabric of truth and fantasy to create some of the most amazing conspiracy theories you could ever imagine.

Paddywack··on Ask HN: CTO wants me to leave
I co-founded a company that grew to around $200Mil valuation in three years (not big by your guys terms, but exciting for all involved). We realised our own limitations, so we brought in the big guns to take it to the next level. One year on they got rid of four of the four founders and shafted us over vesting - taking about $18mil off each of us.

There are two sides to every story - we didn't adjust well to being bossed around. But at the end of the day, once they decided to get us out, they played to screw us over entirely. All I expected was to be treated fairly - how naive. For example, their lawyers pounced on me as I was leaving my moms funeral (still in the church grounds) - knowing that this was where I was. Eventually I just wanted out - I took a ridiculous offer of just getting my initial investment back because I was disgusted at them and wanted to move on. Next time I would dig in more!

Edit: ONce I left it took a while to get over, but my life has been amazing since then, so all good!

Paddywack··on Ask HN: CTO wants me to leave
I had something like this happen to me (on a larger scale) - I folded, and regretted it for years.

Firstly - go straight to see a lawyer. Do not consider anything else before you have done this. Play hard, don't blink!

Secondly. If things don't go your way, play the long game and take your time. Make sure that they know that this will not be resolved quickly, and that having this hanging over them will frustrate their attempts to raise capital.

Behind the scenes this is what I think is going on:

1) The CTO is more experienced, and thinks he is entitled to more than you as a result (you seem to agree that you are relatively inexperienced). He cares little about loyalty and honour as he was not there to see you slogging it out in the early days.

2) What you have set up must be worthwhile and be starting to get valuable, otherwise you would not have attracted a "good" CTO.

3) My thoughts are this is part of the play to attract equity:

- They probably don't want to dilute too much, so would love to grab your shares back before the deal so that they can neaten things out for the new investor

- They probably want the new deal to include shares for the CTO. He is probably niggling for this, and the CEO would prefer to take yours than dilute his.

- They want to put forward a team that has the most value for fund raising. They want solid credentials, and probably feel that yours don't fit the bill.

Good luck hey!

Paddywack··on Lost Jet’s Path Seen as Altered via Computer
Oddly enough, I have lived there for a year as well.

I agree that the government is incompetent, partly because of cronyism and largely because of terribly applied affirmative action.

However, I did think that the enormous international support combined with international pressure would have helped mitigate this. They seem to respond well to international pressure - I always believed that most of their best achievements (of which there are a few) have come as a result of the perpetual pissing contest with neighbouring Singapore (not that I am sure Singapore even cares!).

Paddywack··on Lost Jet’s Path Seen as Altered via Computer
Hi. I agree with a lot of what you say. However, the information that I am referring to was plausible and already in the public domain, but that they were refuting.

Examples of this are the delay between the two comms engines being switched off; the Rolls Royce engine data; and their military satellites.

All of this information was gleaned from reliable sources [their own military, the engine manufacturer, the normal ATC systems], and you are 100% correct in that it should have been verified before being released. But, my point is that the delay between the time the information first came to light [even through leaks] in release was just too excruciating long to comprehend. In the interim flatly they denied that the information even existed. I can only assume that some of the leaks from "official sources" were in part because they knew that materially[1] important reliable information was being held back.

On another note - I do feel for the families. The mis-information, delays and incorrect denials are only adding to the speculation. There must be a better way to report information.

[1]= Materially important to quelling speculation. Material to re-directing the futile searches in the wrong places.

Paddywack··on Lost Jet’s Path Seen as Altered via Computer
My conspiracy theory:

The plane was hijacked and there has been contact with Malaysia/China/USA. One of the conditions for hostages to be held safely is that the Authorities do not make this public.

This would explain:

- the otherwise unbelievable delays and pure misinformation by the Malaysian government. Stalling for time.

- the fact that they did not publicly do background checks on all passengers until recently. They already know who the hijacker is. Now that there is pressure because of elapsed time and that people are seeing holes in the story, they need to be seen to be doing something.

What makes this implausible:

- it still does not explain where the plane landed and has been hidden without trace in the interim (perhaps they know - NW Pakistan, NE Afghanistan maybe, and just can't get to it without harming the hostages)

- it would be a diplomatic nightmare to have countries using their assets in a futile search when Malaysia already knows what has happened. (On the other hand, if they took 20 countries into their confidence then they would definitely have had a leak by now.)

- talking of leaks - I am sure even if it was a tightly held secret that they were in hostage negotiations, someone would have made it public by now. That's just the way things are these days.

EDIT: Formatting

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