NotTheDr01ds

Well, there's the rub. No one seems to know, even today, how long after exposure you become contagious. That's especially the case for asymptomatic spreaders (as we assume the child was, if the child was the source for the parent).

Everyone seems to say "1-2 days before symptoms start", although some sources say "2-3 days". And yes, as you say, the 2-14 days for becoming symptomatic seems to be much more agreed upon.

That's where it seems to me to be a very rapid spread (below average) from the wedding to the LTCF. But not impossible.

I was also curious about the situation around the LTCF in the days leading up to that outbreak. I was expecting to find that perhaps there were other community cases around there that could have contributed to the LTCF.

However, looking at the MeCDC website for Somerset County (where the LTCF is reported to be located), the county seemed to be pretty "under control" in the days leading up to this event. The most recent confirmed cases had been over 2 weeks prior, on July 24th. It's actually the longest they had gone without a new case in almost 3 months.

Given that, I'm more likely (as the CDC concluded) to suspect the contact tracing from the wedding to the LTCF as being the cause. It's not an absolute link, but it's probably more likely than I originally assumed.

That's the one I was looking for - Thanks :-)

Edited

Isn't the long-term care facility link a little implausible? 4 days seems like a bit short for the child to be infected, incubate to the point of being contagious, pass it to the parent, then incubate again to the parent being symptomatic.

Regardless, the wedding and reception behavior was entirely irresponsible. But the link between it and the long-term care cases seems tenuous, at best.

Sour grapes from a pork industry CEO who is upset that he is being asked to close his plant for 2 weeks since half of South Dakota's confirmed COVID-19 cases are due to it.

Pork consumption (and prices) had already dropped off drastically anyway due to COVID-19 since the industry sells more to restaurants (e.g. BBQ) than to home kitchens.

I wish they could prosecute this guy for fear-mongering. It's going to likely cause a run on other meat products because everyone is reporting him saying it.

Some of the confusion is that cases are reported in the county of residence, not the county of the hospital where they are being treated. I've had to correct multiple people who felt the "official numbers are wrong because Foo Hospital in Bar County reported treating 'x' confirmed cases, but the state's website only shows 'y' for Bar County.

It's likely that the doctor that was quoted in the article fell victim to that misunderstanding.

On a related topic, it would be nice if the ER doctors, nurses, and hospitals were doing a better job of reporting the county-of-residence. Here in Georgia, we have 166 cases where the county is "unknown" (out of 1525) as of noon's report.

I thought about mentioning this, but Menus still had a tendency to dead-end into modal dialogs more often than not. A Ribbon command could still end up in a modal, but often times the Ribbon design allowed more functionality to be present in a non-modal way.

I worked for Lotus/IBM when Word Pro was being developed, and they came up with the concept of a non-modal floating property bar (they called it the "Info Bar") that pretty much eliminated modals entirely. While I don't recall whether or not it was very keyboard friendly (I was still a mouse user at the time), it definitely showed me that there was a better way than "modal dialogs everywhere".

When I moved on from IBM and had to use Office, I remember how grating it was every time I ended up in a modal dialog, so this was one more reason I was excited to see the Ribbon come along (more than a decade after Word Pro's Info Bar).

I've never looked to see, but it wouldn't surprise me if some of the MS developers for Office 2007 came from Lotus/IBM, since it was a few years earlier that IBM had really given up the Office Suite fight for good.

I was always surprised at the hatred that many (most) "power users" expressed toward the Ribbon design.

To me, the greatest thing about it was that it exposed every Ribbon action with an easily discoverable and repeatable key-sequence. Just hit the Alt key once, and every top level category's hotkey showed up as a hover. Hit that key, and the commands on the ribbon (or next level dropdown) were displayed. "Paste Special", a very common action, became Alt+H+V+S. And you didn't have to do finger twisters like Ctrl+Alt+V (all held down together) to achieve it.

And again, almost EVERY command was available in this way.

Sure, you could create your own hotkeys in versions of Office before this, but the Ribbon brought almost every command within easy reach of those that hate removing their fingers from the keyboard. It wasn't quite VIM (no command mode), but it was a far sight better than anything than had existed before in Office, where most of the advanced UI had been buried away in difficult-to-automate AND navigate (either by keyboard or mouse) modal dialogs.

And by exposing most of the UI to the keyboard, it also enabled easier automation via utilities like AutoHotkey.

All-in-all, it was a power user's dream, but I definitely see how it was harder for a mouse user to develop the muscle memory on the Ribbon vs an icon bar. That, however, I believe is simply a matter of having nearly 100% of the UI be available via the Ribbon, vs. the 20% (or less) of icon bars. The always present trade-off between power and ease-of-use, at least for the mouse user.