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Nokinside

6,899 karma · joined November 18, 2014

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Nokinside··on Can Elon Musk Make the Math Work on Owning Twitter? It’s Dicey
He must do something fast to monetize Twitter. Just letting Twitter slowly drown in debt makes it harder to do anything in the future.

If there are million organizations + persons willing to pay, that's roughly $250 million in revenue. If he invents 'god tier' for businesses and rich people that costs $2500 per year and gets 100k to subscribe, he collects another $250M and has half billion in revenue.

Nokinside··on Find your Twitter friends on Mastodon
> That's why no significant migration to Mastodon will take place.

This sounds great. If we can leave 99% behind and get all substantive people, like John Carlos Baez, into Mastodon, its the best possible world.

People think that all partitions are between people with different opinions, but that's not always the case. Sometimes people with substance from every corner flock into the same arena. For a little time everything is good, then eternal September once again.

Nokinside··on The Basic Law: A Fifty Year Assessment (2019)
The U.S. recognizes 17 exclusions to freedom of speech.

The German law recognizes a concept called "streitbare Demokratie" (self-defence of Democracy) that puts restrictions to undemocratic movements. It's a legal solution to Popper's paradox of tolerance.

Freedom of speech in liberal democracies can be summarized as follows:

1. There is general freedom of speech and expression.

2. Any exception must be codified in the law.

Nokinside··on Meta stock price drops more than 20%
Reasons why Meta has no future:

1. Multiple share classes. Meta (or Alphabet) would be blocked from joining SP500 with current rules.

2. Horrible corporate governance. Leadership without accountability. Mr. Zuck can't be ousted. Meta is his personal toy.

3. Meta business is peaking. Growth by acquisitions is blocked by new regulatory environment.

Nokinside··on More Proof That This Is the End of History
That's not what he is arguing. His own words:

>The End of History was never linked to a specifically American model of social or political organization. Following Alexandre Kojève, the Russian-French philosopher who inspired my original argument, I believe that the European Union more accurately reflects what the world will look like at the end of history than the contemporary United States. The EU's attempt to transcend sovereignty and traditional power politics by establishing a transnational rule of law is much more in line with a "post-historical" world than the Americans' continuing belief in God, national sovereignty, and their military

His main argument is that the evolution is over and there will be no better system than some type of liberal democracy. There can be devolution to worse, but there are no alternatives that work better. Even if there are reversions to totalitarianism, the long term trend is towards liberal democracy.

Nokinside··on Against Algebra
Author is Temple Grandin.

Everybody should read "Thinking the Way Animals Do: Unique insights from a person with a singular understanding." https://web.archive.org/web/20210417083222/https://www.grand...

I think she is right.

Everybody should study as much math as possible in school, more than today. But nobody should study math abstractly just to pass exams. They should study more but only at the rate they understand, in a way that they understand.

If everyone would study math 5h/week for 9 years with speed they understand and grok what they learn, some would learn to master only 50% of the math curriculum. Some would master 200%, some even more. But even those who would master only 50% would have better math skills than those who pass all exams but don't undestand.

Nokinside··on More Proof That This Is the End of History
Do you know what he means with the "End of History"? It seems to me that you are reacting naively to the title and making up the meaning.

The "End of History" here means that there are no more any serious ideological competitors against liberal democracy. Religious fundamentalism, Chinese and Russian systems and their reactions so far prove it. China and Russian are reacting and defending against liberalism, they are not providing anything new, they are not doing anything better. No solutions, only reactionary rejection and nihilistic decay.

As long as no nother political structure can provide citizens with the levels of wealth and personal liberties that a liberal democracy can, this is the end of history.

Nokinside··on Chainalysis CTO said blockchain is easier to trace than paper money
If you own significant sums of money and its completely anonymous, or the origin is untraceable, you can't use it.

Just like drug cartels know how to collect and store anonymous money but find it very hard to use it. Every time you try to buy something expensive or normal financial assets, you have to explain where the money is from or you may lose it.

Try to buy a house with anonymous crypto and find out.

Nokinside··on Arecibo telescope won’t be rebuilt
Time passed it.

FAST (five-hundred-meter aperture telescope) already exists and combining smaller ones is also an option.

Nokinside··on Ask HN: In C, how to map void* to int propertly

    void* void_pointer = v;  
    int*  pointer_to_a_int = (int*) v;  
    int   int_v_points_to = *(int*)v;
Nokinside··on US Export Restrictions, Intel Layoffs, Applied Materials, and TSMC
Global semiconductor industry has the deepest and widest value chain compared to any other industry. China must replicate very specialized industries spread across the US, Europe, Japan, South Korea.

>How the big Chinese manufacturing hubs like Shenzhen work.

99.9% of Shenzhen is relatively low value added on top of core technologies. They bring high value added tooling from South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, buy chips from Taiwan and assemble them into products.

Nokinside··on US Export Restrictions, Intel Layoffs, Applied Materials, and TSMC
Biden dropped a real hammer on Chinese chipmaking.

Thresholds:

• Logic chips with non-planar transistor architectures (I.e., FinFET or GAAFET) of 16nm or 14nm, or below;

• DRAM memory chips of 18nm half-pitch or less;

• NAND flash memory chips with 128 layers or more.

A one-year Temporary General License softens the blow for the US allies. Everything that includes the US made tools and software for design and manufacturing, and machinery is cut out, so is any person with US citizenship, green card or who lives within the US.

Nokinside··on ASML tells U.S. staff to stop servicing China customers after Biden export curb
Biden dropped a real hammer on Chinese chipmaking. People are just walking out from fabs all around China and fabs are closing without services and support.

A one-year Temporary General License softens the blow for foreign companies but just delays the catastrophe for Chinese chip manufacturing. Besides removing US citizens, green card holders, and people living in the US from working or serving Chinese chipmakers, exports are restricted. Everything that includes the US made tools and software for design and manufacturing, and machinery is cut out.

Thresholds:

• Logic chips with non-planar transistor architectures (I.e., FinFET or GAAFET) of 16nm or 14nm, or below;

• DRAM memory chips of 18nm half-pitch or less;

• NAND flash memory chips with 128 layers or more.

Nokinside··on Cathie Wood's Main ETF Closes at Five-Year Low in 78% Drop from Record
Over its lifetime 2014-now, ARKK +67% has lost handsomely to Nasdaq +129% and SP500 +85%

It's not just terrible year, it's terrible fund made to ride boom and generate management fees.

Nokinside··on Deep language algorithms predict semantic comprehension from brain activity
The acceptance rate is >50% and it lets lots of fake and pseudoscience trough. https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/more-scientific-re....

>It's a good thing for science

Maybe, but we should treat them like arXiv.org type e-Print archive. People are posting them to HN and thinking that because it's Nature.com site it's solid science.

Nokinside··on Deep language algorithms predict semantic comprehension from brain activity
The acceptance rate for Scientific Reports is 55%.
Nokinside··on The Dismal Science
Joseph Goebbels read passages from Carlyle's book to comfort Hitler during their last days in the bunker. Carlyle believed in Herocracy (Government of Heroes) and was very racist
Nokinside··on The Dismal Science
TL;DR Thomas Carlyle called economics dismal science because economists used supply and demand to argue against slavery and support personal freedom.
Nokinside··on Deep language algorithms predict semantic comprehension from brain activity
Nature Scientific Reports has very light peer-review. If you pay the fee, they publish with high probability.

>Manuscripts are not assessed based on their perceived importance, significance or impact https://www.nature.com/srep/guide-to-referees#criteria

Nokinside··on Authors’ names have ‘astonishing’ influence on peer reviewers: study
There was no trend.
Nokinside··on Authors’ names have ‘astonishing’ influence on peer reviewers: study
Every paper Albert Einstein submitted to anonymous peer review was rejected.

(he had only one peer anonymous reviewed paper and it had an error)

Nokinside··on Effect of Colonoscopy Screening on Risks of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death
Years ago I learned that this is the reason why they don't do colonoscopies without good reason in Finland. I asked from a doctor who is a friend why you have regular colonoscopies in the US but not in the Finland and he said "no evidence and colonoscopy has a small risk factor".

If you do medicine for profit and are allowed to advertise and market, doing more is always better.

Nokinside··on Musk's trial hasn't stopped, no matter what he told Twitter, says judge
Matt Levine:

>What Musk apparently wants is to pause the trial while they can work this all out: He offered to “proceed to closing of the transaction,” but only “provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action ... and adjourn the trial.” What Twitter wants is sort of the opposite, to keep the pressure of a trial on Musk until he shows up with the money. This feels like a solvable problem — basically, you write some sort of agreement that says like “we’re going to work together to get the closing done this week, but if we don’t we’re gonna have an extra-super-bad trial,” and you get Chancellor McCormick to bless it — but they have to work together to solve it. They have to negotiate and draft an Agreement to Stick to the Agreement. If you’re writing that agreement, you have some trust issues.

Nokinside··on Musk's trial hasn't stopped, no matter what he told Twitter, says judge
Twitter has no reason to stop the trial until the deal has closed (it can happen early next week).

Why leave any room for Musk to delay or change his mind. Fool me once ...

Nokinside··on Musk's trial hasn't stopped, no matter what he told Twitter, says judge
Makes sense. Offer to close "pending the receipt" is not good enough. Musk has made so many quick reversals that there is no trust left.

Twitter has no reason to ask for a stay until the deal is closed. It's better to just keep pushing and motivate Musk to close asap.

Nokinside··on Elon Musk moves ahead with Twitter deal in 13D filing
Musk is modern day Howard Hughes.

Brilliant man who worked in aviation and aerospace and did many things. Eccentric person with serious mental issues.

Nokinside··on Elon Musk moves ahead with Twitter deal in 13D filing
$7.1 billion in equity from 19 independent investors.

$20 billion cash from Musk, $6.25 billion in personal bank loans to Musk (he is hooking his Tesla stocks)

Rest is senior secured bank loans and subordinated debt loaned against Twitter stock. The cost of the debt is about $1 billion per year if I remember correctly.

Nokinside··on Elon Musk moves ahead with Twitter deal in 13D filing
Musk burned his reputation. His handshake or verbal agreement is worth much less going forward. Without trust he can't move fast.

Someone like Warren Buffet can make a one phone call and the deal gets closed in few days because his word can be trusted.

Nokinside··on Elon Musk moves ahead with Twitter deal in 13D filing
Potential buyer is offering what they think is current market price. Something like like $15-$20 per share than $52 per share. Musk would sell with huge loss.
Nokinside··on Elon Musk moves ahead with Twitter deal in 13D filing
I'm sure you already know this, but the deal has already been financed. He is not buying the whole Twitter by himself, just the majority. If co-investors bail out, investment banks who signed the deal take those stocks.

If you compare the purchase price to what Twitter likely would cost without the deal–using the price change of other social media platforms and internet ad platforms as a benchmark–it seems likely that Musk is paying ~$20 billion over the current market value.

If Musk wants to offload even more stocks, he takes huge haircut. At least 50% or more. It's likely better to wait for better times and restructure Twitter.

No matter how you look at it, this is horrible deal for Musk unless he can make Twitter shine again.

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