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Morendil

925 karma · joined September 26, 2010

[ my public key: https://keybase.io/morendil; my proof: https://keybase.io/morendil/sigs/snY2XSXWydrLeuoAXNBsC_Wm6DYlJfjqHXirA9LIoDc ]
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Morendil··on Spam Hits Lowest Levels Since 2008 (Did You Notice?)
Doesn't look like it, but perhaps a closer analysis would show some. One thing it shows for sure is a change, early on, in GMail's algorithm for deleting old mails left in the Spam folder - that's where it goes from jagged to smoother. And it confirms the article's "spam at its lowest" story.
Morendil··on Spam Hits Lowest Levels Since 2008 (Did You Notice?)
That's one reason I set up this cron in the first place - I wanted to see if "my spam" was the same as "everyone else's spam".

I wish I'd had your foresight and set this up earlier, but now I'm glad I didn't let that prevent me from doing it anyway; it's always fun to play scientist. :)

Morendil··on Spam Hits Lowest Levels Since 2008 (Did You Notice?)
It's per-month, not per-day - GMail only stores 30 days' worth of email in the Spam folder.

As to how - cron job on my server querying GMail via IMAP. Source below. Manually copy and paste the resulting text file to a GDoc spreadsheet; use the Time Series widget to generate the chart.

    require 'net/imap'
    require 'date'
    imap = Net::IMAP.new('imap.gmail.com',993,true)
    imap.login('yourlogin','yourpwd')
    msgs = imap.status("[Gmail]/Spam",["MESSAGES"])["MESSAGES"]
    puts Date.today.to_s + "\t" + msgs.to_s
Morendil··on Spam Hits Lowest Levels Since 2008 (Did You Notice?)
Yes: http://bit.ly/lerK1S

(This is a time series graph of the count of my GMail spam folder since 2009, updated daily.)

Morendil··on Ask HN: What DON'T you like about your Macbook?
Fan noise.
Morendil··on Fact and folklore in software engineering
Kudos for pointing out that it's the shape of the distribution that matters, not how far apart its endpoints.

Interestingly there are articles out there which suggest that one distribution (of competence, rather than productivity, but intuitively you'd expect the two to be related) is actually bimodal rather than normal, "the camel has two humps":

http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/2006/07/separating-programm...

Morendil··on Fact and folklore in software engineering
Which part of the above did you have trouble with?

"Citation" is the topic being discussed. It's a technical term that refers to how scientific papers refer to other scientific papers.

"Modality" is the concept I've been introducing for three paragraphs. You're supposed to know what it means by then, or I've not been clear enough.

"Present as" is an intransitive verb phrase. I could say the same thing, perhaps more simply, by saying "you can think of a citation as a modality". Perhaps it's this phrase that has thrown you?

[EDIT: I've changed the article to try and make the sentence clearer. Thanks for your feedback.]

It seems to me that "degree of confidence" is clear enough, and that it's clear enough that a modality can have a degree of confidence associated with it.

So the article introduces two technical terms you're perhaps not familiar with, but I'd suppose someone who can read a CS paper or write a program can cope with that much.

Morendil··on Fact and folklore in software engineering
I wouldn't start with a data set. I would start by stating clearly enough the question we are looking for an answer to.

Doing that might involve getting clear on the terms. "Productivity" is too abstract and ambiguous to be used as-is, so we first need to say "here is what we are going to measure".

Morendil··on Fact and folklore in software engineering
You're missing the point: I didn't set out to refute the claim of 10x. I set out to refute that the claim had been proven.

> If you're going to refute McConnell or even Peopleware, you've got to do a study.

What McConnell has published isn't empirical, or scientific; argument suffices to refute it.

That goes for DeMarco and Lister, too - Peopleware was a popular book, not an empirical study aiming at establishing scientific fact.

Morendil··on Fact and folklore in software engineering
I've just been pointed to a recent article by Tom Gilb on measuring productivity, I'll post it when I've had a chance to read it.

http://www.gilb.com/tiki-download_file.php?fileId=144

Morendil··on The industry as a whole makes its choices on the basis of folklore
Now translated here:

http://morendil.github.com/folklore.html

Morendil··on Jon Rohan · Creating Triangles in CSS
And when you can do triangles, you can do 3D:

http://www.uselesspickles.com/triangles/

(That page was published in something like 2006... "Nothing new under the sun" indeed.)

Morendil··on The Grace Programming Language
> I don't understand how "suitability for teaching" and "suitability for industry" differ

Industry is made up of people who have by necessity cultivated a patience with excessive complexity.

In particular, I suspect that many unnecessarily complex or counterintuitive language features arise in imitation of what the designers have learned to live with in other languages, even as their focus is on "improving" some aspect that they think is important for industry.

If you did design a language which favored learnability at every opportunity you might not end up with something that flattered everyone's preconceived notions of what is suitable for industry, either.

I hesitate to name examples here, as there is a significant risk of trolling...

Morendil··on The Grace Programming Language
BTW, I'm just being a messenger here - I got this link off Twitter and thought it'd be of relevance here.

I can't muster much enthusiasm for the initiative myself. My gut reaction is "oh no, as if we needed one more", and I winced at the blog post which said "the most important thing in a new language is that you can println 'Hello world'". I can't find any evidence of design thinking that strives to achieve the lofty objectives set out in the PDF paper.

But I'm looking forward to the discussion :)

Morendil··on The Top 10 Daily Consequences of Having Evolved
Bizarrely the article makes no mention at all of the various cognitive consequences of our evolutionary history, such as confirmation bias, which certainly have more impact on our lives on a daily basis than do hiccups. (I get hiccups maybe once a month or so, brainfarts several times a day.)
Morendil··on Ask HN: What are current trends in webdeveloping?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuation#Continuations_in_W...
Morendil··on NoSQL is a bullshit marketing term
> to insight ire

Ouch. Nothing hurts your credibility quite like an egregious spelling mistake just as your rant is taxiing onto the runway.

Morendil··on Demystifying agile, top 7 myths.
Some relatively lucid observations there. (Disclaimer: I'm an expert. I was into Agile before it got named that.)

There's one point that I starkly disagree with:

> “Hero developers” make most of the big differences made in software development.

Wait, did I say I disagree? Hero developers make a big difference all right - for the worse. Nothing breeds bad management like the one guy who pulls through when the team can't. Managers come to rely on them, and therefore on sheer blind luck, when the name of the game is to engineer success, by putting together a solid team.

Morendil··on Ask HN: Who Plays Go?
Stuck at 2kyu on KGS for two years, I've set the game aside temporarily, until my life situation is such that I can immerse myself in serious study. Love the game - got half a shelf of books including Invincible.

There's a saying, "Go is life". Learning the game will tell you an incredible amount about yourself, about determinism and chance and skill, about depth and limits and building knowledge and passing on knowledge.

For a software person there is a lot to learn about complexity and patterns. There are deep lessons about not fooling yourself, about the idea that a strategy for success emerges in surprising ways from ridiculously simple rules and facts of the underlying material.

There isn't much of a gap between Go's simple rules (alternating play, capture, ko) and software's fundamental elements (sequence, iteration, choice) in terms of simplicity, and likewise these simple rules combine to yield complexities that challenge the best human minds.

Morendil··on Ewww, You Use PHP?
> It can be quite soul crushing.

Always remember: "It's easier to ask for forgiveness than for permission."

If you want to do better than the cultural norm demands, nothing's keeping you. What's the worst that can happen?

Morendil··on [dead]
Exercise your critical thinking... http://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/dkopf/say_hello_to_mec...
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